But nah, this is the way to be thinking. How does not just affect consumption patterns but what does this do for the very concept of creativity and the industries around it. Beyond just deepfakes and porn, this could wipe out the entire film/music industry in a matter of years not decades unless there's some stop gaps put in NOW.
I've been saying 2030 is going to be a wild year for some time, you can search my name and 2030, but now the tech titans are starting to hone in on this date.
It’s attractively light on details, but the new statement also has a familiar flaw.
fortune.com
These are not shot in the dark prophecies, they're tied to Moore's law, so in a roundabout way, barring some unforeseen stagnation or cataclysm; depression, war, pandemic, etc; this technology will be commercialized and stratified amongst commercial and consumer uses.
This technology will be so good by 2030 businesses will have to make life-altering/industry-defining decisions within a few months or literally their entire business model will collapse. For instance, Warner Bros will get dusted if they still have to pay casts and production crews at 2030 market rates and Disney with a significant portion of their catalog and future catalog is animated and computer generated. Imagine they keep using RDJ's likeness in future MCU productions and just pay his estate $40 million a year with occasional cost of sales increases due to societal inflation. Imagine if they do this across all main casts, and CGI all other likenesses. No need to source new talent because RDJ will "ALWAYS" be Ironman, and new audiences reject Tom Cruise or whoever else is the new young talented actor of the day.
Now Imagine this applied to ALL industries where content is absorbed on a screen. There will be niche feal/live action content created, maybe A24 will still continue to produce with live actors and crew, and people will pay the premium because their content is just that good and it's some futile attempt to resist the impending trend. But people families won't be able to have that level of resistance because they can't afford to pay all content creators this way; it's too expensive and as a result companies have to adapt or die.
And don't get me start on the economic, social, and even psychological issues this will present. It's not going anywhere, but the government desperately needs to legislate so that they can guide the turmoil that this will undoubtedly cause.
