Throughout the playoffs, these series previews have emphasized the importance of matchups and head-to-head results. When it comes to the NBA Finals, the regular season no longer holds such predictive power. Miami faced the San Antonio Spurs twice during the regular season, and both times key starters were missing from the lineups. After Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich famously sent Tim Duncan, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker home before San Antonio's visit to Miami, the Heat sat out LeBron James and Dwyane Wade for the return game.
In fact, the two teams have met at full strength only twice since Miami signed James and Chris Bosh, as Wade and Ginobili missed the only matchup during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. Back in 2010-11, the home team won both games in blowout fashion. History still offers some insight into how the Spurs and Heat will approach this series, but not its eventual outcome.
When Miami has the ball
It took the Heat seven games against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals to look like themselves. Indiana's physical, disciplined defense took away the shots at the rim and beyond the 3-point line that are Miami's strengths. The San Antonio defense, which ranked third in the NBA during the regular season and leads the league in defensive rating so far in the playoffs, is similar in many regards to the Pacers' defense.
Like Indiana, the Spurs also excel at defending the rim and the 3-point line, if not as single-mindedly. Per Hoopdata.com, San Antonio ranked third in opponent shooting at the rim (the Pacers were first), though opponents attempted an above-average number of shots close to the basket. The Spurs were in the top five in preventing shots from beyond the 3-point line and above average in opponent 3-point percentage.
Still, the Heat will find this an easier series because San Antonio is neither as physical nor as athletic as Indiana. Miami will not have to adjust its game plan so dramatically to succeed.
Naturally, everything starts with James. The Spurs will counter with Kawhi Leonard, a rangy forward in the Paul George mold. As with George, James' biggest advantage will be his strength, especially if he spends time in the post. Because Leonard missed the only game James played against San Antonio, the Spurs used backup big man Boris Diaw as their primary defender on James. Diaw probably will get the assignment when Leonard is on the bench, especially when Miami goes small.
Because James' production is relatively constant, Bosh and Wade are the more important figures for the Heat offense. Wade's energy in Game 7 against Indiana set the template for his role in this series. Assuming Miami's floor balance is good, he can continue to create problems by crashing the offensive glass. Operating against bigger defenders, Bosh should find plentiful opportunities from midrange. He was great in both matchups against San Antonio, averaging 20.5 points and 10.5 rebounds on 58.6 percent shooting.
The other difference for the Heat in Game 7 was Ray Allen finding the mark from 3-point range. He should have more space to fire in this series, having scored 34 points in the two games against the Spurs. Erik Spoelstra may also be able to return Shane Battier to the lineup now, provided he matches up with Diaw or Matt Bonner and not the bigger Tiago Splitter.
When San Antonio has the ball
After watching the Pacers pound Miami inside for seven games, the Spurs should be able to take advantage of their own superior size with a pair of 6-foot-11 frontcourt starters. In the second half of the meeting in San Antonio, Tim Duncan in the post was the Spurs' first option on offense. The Heat countered with Udonis Haslem fronting and a second defender coming over to prevent the lob. While Duncan rarely scored himself, the help defense and his willingness to move the ball opened up opportunities on the perimeter.
The Spurs also came up with offensive rebounds on better than 30 percent of the misses in the second matchup. San Antonio won't dominate the glass as thoroughly as Indiana did, but still should be able to extend possessions nonetheless.
Besides the post game, the Spurs can also generate open shots from their pick-and-roll game. Miami stuck with its basic trapping game plan against screens, which led to 17 turnovers from the San Antonio regulars in the second matchup, but also uncontested attempts from beyond the 3-point line. The Spurs are by far the best passing team the Heat have faced in the postseason, and that ball movement figures to break down Miami's rotation at times.
All told, San Antonio attempted 54 3-pointers in the two games, and the Heat were fortunate the Spurs made just 31.5 percent of them. Hitting from the corners, long a San Antonio specialty (the team was third in the NBA in corner 3s this season, per NBA.com/Stats) also will be particularly important. Twenty-two of those 54 3-point attempts came from the corners. If Miami starts closing out too hard, that could set up drives for the Spurs wings. Leonard got a pair of dunks that way in the fourth quarter of the second meeting.
Somehow, we've gotten this far without addressing San Antonio's playoff MVP, point guard Tony Parker. Parker wasn't a huge factor in the one game he played against the Heat this season, scoring 12 points on 4-of-14 shooting and handing out eight assists. In Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole, Miami has a pair of quick defenders who can put pressure on Parker. The team's overall pick-and-roll defense will be more important to keeping Parker out of the paint. If he plays as he did in the Western Conference finals, however, there's no stopping Parker.
One wild card: Will the Heat put James on Parker at the end of games? James' size and strength would enable him to contest shots even when beat off the dribble, but the number of screens the Spurs run for Parker makes this a taxing strategy that could sap his energy for the offensive end.
Prediction
This time a year ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder entered the NBA Finals as favorites in large part because of how impressive the Thunder looked in the Western Conference finals (knocking off San Antonio) as Miami was forced to seven games in the East. In hindsight, those series were not indicative of what happened with an entirely different matchup in the Finals. I'm wary of the same thing happening with the Heat a second consecutive year.
At the same time, the Spurs certainly fit the formula for beating Miami with their big front line, a defense that takes away the 3-pointer and ace defenders Leonard and Green on the wing.
Ultimately, this series likely turns on two factors. The first is the health of Bosh and Wade, who looked revitalized in Game 7 against Indiana. The second is Splitter's ability to create more problems for the Heat defense with his size than Miami's smaller shooters create at the other end. While San Antonio is a better team than the Pacers, I don't think they match up quite as well, and I think that will allow the Heat to defend their title.
Miami in 7
I'm going to need a link.
. im sorry ever since we got birdman for such a good deal, ive been spoiled. seeing the impact he has had it makes me 
@the thought of giving juwan a $100 milli, even in his prime
i thought it was gonna start at 35 but LeBatard was trolling smh
