ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
talk is cheap they said, don't take money from the corporate machine they said, put your money where your mouth is they said
and then they said Bernie is all talk
Is Bernie going to win NY?
The Official Primary Thread
- Thread starter Vonte3000
- Start date
Is Bernie going to win NY?
Yeah that poll is 53-43 Hillary. That's where I roughly expect it to be.
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
Does that mean Bernie is going to win?
Is it over for Bern?
MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
South Carolina Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
North Carolina Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Georgia Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Florida Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/mississippi/exit/
Michigan Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Arkansas Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Ohio Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Texas Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Wisconsin Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Did some exit polling. Looks like Hillary's real base is non White women. A lot of White women help go pump the numbers, but @SithLawd is essentially correct. Wed have to see of Tuesday marks a shift in this paradigm.
North Carolina Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Georgia Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Florida Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/mississippi/exit/
Michigan Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Arkansas Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Ohio Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Texas Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Wisconsin Democratic Primary Exit Poll - Election 2016 - CBS News
Did some exit polling. Looks like Hillary's real base is non White women. A lot of White women help go pump the numbers, but @SithLawd is essentially correct. Wed have to see of Tuesday marks a shift in this paradigm.
MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
Not even close, that is actually pretty good, considering Bernie almost always beats the polling skew. We haven't seen one slip to Hillary that was a pretty recent one leading in. Only in Southern states where the polling data was 2 weeks to a month off did we see Hillary surprises. If he loses by 10% though, it might be time to pack it up. PA would definitely be the point where we could call the race.
I am by no means a fan of hillary but the way you all collectively
for Bernie as if he's some kind if savior is embarrassing to say the least.The "mid east" is defined as Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. Hillary never won close to 60+% of whites in any of those states, in fact Bernie won with whites in Michigan and Illinois
2016 Election Center
If you're talking about the Mid atlantic (NC, VA, WV, Md, PA)
only NC and VA have voted and again hillary was nowhere near 60 with whites in either of those states (lost in NC)
Outside of the south, Hillary is not getting 60+ with whites.
And now we're in the Northeast which should be even more favorable for Bernie.
winning 50-49 in mostly white upstate NY is not gonna cut it.
Early registration is undoubtedly hurting him. If it was an open primary with a later deadline, I think he'd have a shot
I am by no means a fan of hillary but the way you all collectively
The "mid east" is defined as Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. Hillary never won close to 60+% of whites in any of those states, in fact Bernie won with whites in Michigan and Illinois
2016 Election Center
If you're talking about the Mid atlantic (NC, VA, WV, Md, PA)
only NC and VA have voted and again hillary was nowhere near 60 with whites in either of those states (lost in NC)
Outside of the south, Hillary is not getting 60+ with whites.
And now we're in the Northeast which should be even more favorable for Bernie.
winning 50-49 in mostly white upstate NY is not gonna cut it.
Early registration is undoubtedly hurting him. If it was an open primary with a later deadline, I think he'd have a shot
With some smart moves, Trump had a pretty good week
THE WASHINGTON POST
Chris Cillizza April 17 at 11:52 AM
Don’t look now, but Donald Trump has made moves in the past week that are — wait for it — actually quite smart.
Consider:
● Trump announced the hiring of Rick Wiley, who managed Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s presidential campaign, as his national political director this past week. Wiley joins other longtime GOP operatives, including Paul Manafort, Don McGahn, Ed Brookover and Rick Reed, in Trump’s inner circle — evidence that Trump rightly assessed that his loyal core of staffers wasn’t equipped to handle the knife-fight battle for delegates between now and July 18, when the Republican National Convention is to begin.
●Trump has leaned hard into the idea that the whole process is “rigged” against him, pointing to what happened in Colorado two weekends ago —where he was out-organized and lost all 34 of the state’s delegates to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas — as evidence that party leaders are trying to silence him. (More on Trump’s delegate problems below.)
This is a terrific message for Trump and may be the second act he needs to push himself over the delegate threshold by June 7, when California votes. He always runs best as the aggrieved outsider, the guy whom the establishment is trying to control but keeps slipping out of its grasp. He has struggled of late because he became the very clear front-runner and didn’t really have anything or anyone to run against. Now that he can rail against the rigged system, he is right back in his messaging wheelhouse.
“The Republican National Committee, they’d better get going, because I’ll tell you what: You’re going to have a rough July at that convention,” Trump said Saturday in Syracuse, N.Y. — a message that will thrill his supporters and send shivers through the RNC and the rest of the GOP establishment.
●The Trump family town hall meeting on CNN last week was an absolute home run for his candidacy. Trump himself is never going to be warm and fuzzy. His pointy edges are what make his supporters love him. But they are also what make lots and lots of people not like him; 67 percent of Americans view Trump unfavorably in a new Washington Post-ABC poll. His family — especially his daughter Ivanka, who is not only his best surrogate but should consider running for office herself one day (I’ll have more to say on that later in this space) — rounds off some of his sharp edges. You look at his children, and they all seem to be relatively normal, well-adjusted people who love and admire their dad. Which, you think to yourself, must mean that Trump the dad was doing something right. The more that Trump’s family is in the picture, the better for him.
Looking forward, there’s reason for optimism in the Trump camp. He looks well positioned to take the lion’s share of New York’s 95 delegates Tuesday. Seven days later, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island vote — these should be good states for Trump. It’s not until May 3, in Indiana, where Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich will go all out, that Trump would be likely to face the prospect of defeat again.
Then there’s this fact: Recent polling suggests little appetite in the Republican Party to keep the nomination from Trump if he has the most votes but can’t get to 1,237 delegates before the convention.
Sixty-two percent of Republicans in an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday morning said that if no candidate had a majority of delegates going into the convention, then the person with the most votes should be the nominee. That will, almost certainly, be Trump, who has 8.2 million votes to Cruz’s 6.3 million. Just 1 in 3 respondents said the GOP delegates should choose the nominee who would be the best standard-bearer for the party in the general election.
(Sidebar for those keeping the Paul D. Ryan flame lit despite the House speaker’s repeated insistence that he is not running — 71 percent of those polled said it would be “unacceptable” for the party to nominate someone who didn’t run in the primary process.)
But wait! There’s more! That same NBC-WSJ poll found that Republicans divided on whether a third-party bid by Trump — if he doesn’t get the GOP nod — would be okay; 45 percent said it would be acceptable and 47 percent said it wouldn’t, a split decision that Trump would almost certainly take if he decided to go that route.
And he may have to do just that if he doesn’t get the 1,237 delegates he needs on the first ballot. For a second straight weekend, Cruz dominated Trump in the local and county meetings that select the delegates for the convention. He was shut out of Wyoming’s 14 delegates and was drubbed in Georgia.
Many of those delegates will be bound to Trump on the first ballot at the convention but will be free to choose their own candidate — Cruz — on the second ballot and beyond.
Trump’s losses in the delegate-selection process mar what has been a good 10 days for him. But the truth is that his only shot at the nomination has long been to get 1,237 delegates either before the convention or on its first ballot. In that regard, nothing has changed.
With some smart moves, Trump had a pretty good week
THE WASHINGTON POST
Chris Cillizza April 17 at 11:52 AM
Don’t look now, but Donald Trump has made moves in the past week that are — wait for it — actually quite smart.
Consider:
● Trump announced the hiring of Rick Wiley, who managed Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s presidential campaign, as his national political director this past week. Wiley joins other longtime GOP operatives, including Paul Manafort, Don McGahn, Ed Brookover and Rick Reed, in Trump’s inner circle — evidence that Trump rightly assessed that his loyal core of staffers wasn’t equipped to handle the knife-fight battle for delegates between now and July 18, when the Republican National Convention is to begin.
●Trump has leaned hard into the idea that the whole process is “rigged” against him, pointing to what happened in Colorado two weekends ago —where he was out-organized and lost all 34 of the state’s delegates to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas — as evidence that party leaders are trying to silence him. (More on Trump’s delegate problems below.)
This is a terrific message for Trump and may be the second act he needs to push himself over the delegate threshold by June 7, when California votes. He always runs best as the aggrieved outsider, the guy whom the establishment is trying to control but keeps slipping out of its grasp. He has struggled of late because he became the very clear front-runner and didn’t really have anything or anyone to run against. Now that he can rail against the rigged system, he is right back in his messaging wheelhouse.
“The Republican National Committee, they’d better get going, because I’ll tell you what: You’re going to have a rough July at that convention,” Trump said Saturday in Syracuse, N.Y. — a message that will thrill his supporters and send shivers through the RNC and the rest of the GOP establishment.
●The Trump family town hall meeting on CNN last week was an absolute home run for his candidacy. Trump himself is never going to be warm and fuzzy. His pointy edges are what make his supporters love him. But they are also what make lots and lots of people not like him; 67 percent of Americans view Trump unfavorably in a new Washington Post-ABC poll. His family — especially his daughter Ivanka, who is not only his best surrogate but should consider running for office herself one day (I’ll have more to say on that later in this space) — rounds off some of his sharp edges. You look at his children, and they all seem to be relatively normal, well-adjusted people who love and admire their dad. Which, you think to yourself, must mean that Trump the dad was doing something right. The more that Trump’s family is in the picture, the better for him.
Looking forward, there’s reason for optimism in the Trump camp. He looks well positioned to take the lion’s share of New York’s 95 delegates Tuesday. Seven days later, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island vote — these should be good states for Trump. It’s not until May 3, in Indiana, where Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich will go all out, that Trump would be likely to face the prospect of defeat again.
Then there’s this fact: Recent polling suggests little appetite in the Republican Party to keep the nomination from Trump if he has the most votes but can’t get to 1,237 delegates before the convention.
Sixty-two percent of Republicans in an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday morning said that if no candidate had a majority of delegates going into the convention, then the person with the most votes should be the nominee. That will, almost certainly, be Trump, who has 8.2 million votes to Cruz’s 6.3 million. Just 1 in 3 respondents said the GOP delegates should choose the nominee who would be the best standard-bearer for the party in the general election.
(Sidebar for those keeping the Paul D. Ryan flame lit despite the House speaker’s repeated insistence that he is not running — 71 percent of those polled said it would be “unacceptable” for the party to nominate someone who didn’t run in the primary process.)
But wait! There’s more! That same NBC-WSJ poll found that Republicans divided on whether a third-party bid by Trump — if he doesn’t get the GOP nod — would be okay; 45 percent said it would be acceptable and 47 percent said it wouldn’t, a split decision that Trump would almost certainly take if he decided to go that route.
And he may have to do just that if he doesn’t get the 1,237 delegates he needs on the first ballot. For a second straight weekend, Cruz dominated Trump in the local and county meetings that select the delegates for the convention. He was shut out of Wyoming’s 14 delegates and was drubbed in Georgia.
Many of those delegates will be bound to Trump on the first ballot at the convention but will be free to choose their own candidate — Cruz — on the second ballot and beyond.
Trump’s losses in the delegate-selection process mar what has been a good 10 days for him. But the truth is that his only shot at the nomination has long been to get 1,237 delegates either before the convention or on its first ballot. In that regard, nothing has changed.
With some smart moves, Trump had a pretty good week
MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
I agree with everything you're saying now, except for blindly caping for Bernie. The election can go either way, and I've been more than honest about his chances. His recent run has had GREAT momentum, that you all seem to be ignoring, but not his own base.I am by no means a fan of hillary but the way you all collectively
The "mid east" is defined as Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. Hillary never won close to 60+% of whites in any of those states, in fact Bernie won with whites in Michigan and Illinois
2016 Election Center
If you're talking about the Mid atlantic (NC, VA, WV, Md, PA)
only NC and VA have voted and again hillary was nowhere near 60 with whites in either of those states (lost in NC)
Outside of the south, Hillary is not getting 60+ with whites.
And now we're in the Northeast which should be even more favorable for Bernie.
winning 50-49 in mostly white upstate NY is not gonna cut it.
Early registration is undoubtedly hurting him. If it was an open primary with a later deadline, I think he'd have a shot
New York is going to be the true test of whether that momentum was due to favorable demographics or whether those demographic movements marked a shift in the dissemination and reception of his overall message. Tuesday will tell us a lot. If he can't take from Hillary, in NYC, he will lose, and likely by 15%. If that happens, he's just about done, barring a huge scandal.
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ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
Keep it a hundred
MrSinnister
Delete account when possible.
What I inartfully was trying to say was that as a Black man in today's America, I find it really fukked up that so many of America's top female artists, are running around saying that we live in a rape culture, and they've been raped, without ever taking someone to court for it. I feel it's a huge crime, but they use that to try to paint men through other things on their agenda, like red pill guys now, and other male-oriented type of groups, to try to betalize them. Then they will get women like Sarah Silverman and Amy Schumer to go calling out beta dudes and fukk off with the alphas anyway, while teasing ass everywhere. It's just the constant barrage of estrogen and plea copping.
They want to present themselves as exhibitions and whores, for attention, and then turn around and use buzzwords like "rape culture" for a blanket immunity or sympathy. I find it destructive to males right now, and a cynical play for power. Just like when Keshia committed perjury, staying she wasn't raped, but then turned around to say she was to damage Sony and Dr. Luke (who I give a shyt about either reallg) to get out of a contract. Women from all walks still got on her side.
There's so many actresses and singers who have said they've been raped, but always excuses for why they didn't take the accused to court, if they even named one. Dunham is one of them. They have the biggest nuke, and don't understand that smear jobs are the hallmark of Cluster-B types. I would never ever rape a woman, or will ever have to. They come to me. But like all other things, I try to protect men in general, because you can never wash off an accusation from a women, especially that. So now they have this thing where they can be drunk and fukk, but take back consent in the morning. Some women don't even look drunk in bars, even if they have a natural low tolerance. Just a lot of slippery slope and automatic guilty by accusation type shyt going on. When you have a slanted justice system and jury by perception, you can see how a brother gets nervous when you let mob rule establish guilt or innocence.
Didn't want to make a thread about it, or piss off born betas like @Darth Humanist, that would negg you if you even hint at male equality, but this needed to be said, while her name is brought up.
Its over.