this shyt turned to shyt so fast
While officials become more worried about growth, they canât act without top leaderâs approval
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Xiâs Tight Control Hampers Stronger Response to Chinaâs Slowdown
While officials become more worried about growth, they canât act without top leaderâs approval
Xi Jinping has placed the Communist Partyâand himselfâin greater command of Chinaâs economy over the past decade. Now his centralization of power is delaying the countryâs response to its worst economic slowdown in years.
Officials in charge of day-to-day economic affairs have been holding increasingly urgent meetings in recent months to discuss ways to address the deteriorating outlook, people familiar with the matter said.
Yet despite advice from leading Chinese economists to take bolder action, the people said, senior Chinese officials have been unable to roll out major stimulus or make significant policy changes because they donât have sufficient authority to do so, with economic decision-making increasingly controlled by Xi himself.
The top leader has shown few signs of worry over the outlook despite the gathering gloom and hasnât seemed interested in backing more stimulus, according to the people and publicized remarks by Xi.
In recent weeks, as one of Chinaâs biggest property developers has teetered on the brink of default, putting billions of dollars of loans and other debts at risk, the government has expanded measures to revive home purchases. The steps follow other piecemeal measures over the past few months, such as modest interest-rate cuts.
Cattle roaming the site of a half-finished luxury housing project in northeastern China this past spring. Photo: jade gao/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Economists say the steps will likely help somewhat, and more stimulus could follow. But they still fall short of what many experts say is necessary to stabilize the economy fully.
Without a clearer mandate from Xi to rekindle growth, local government officials worry they could be held accountable for policy mistakes. Many are sitting on their hands, adding to delays in addressing the slowdown, according to economists.
âThe centralization of Chinaâs political system has weakened the credibility of anyone not named Xi Jinping in delivering confidence-building messages that the leadership intends to change course,â wrote Logan Wright, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, in a recent commentary.
The State Council Information Office, which handles press inquiries for Chinaâs leadership, didnât respond to questions.
In private meetings, âanxietyâ over economy
The worldâs second-largest economy has been struggling since a brief post-Covid recovery early in the year gave way to a sharp slowdown. Factory activity has contracted, investment has slowed and consumer sentiment has been weak. A once-booming property market is in distress.
As early as June, a sense of urgency was growing among senior Chinese officials who had been counting on a stronger rebound after the end of Xiâs âzero-Covidâ policy, according to people familiar with the matter.
Various arms of the government, from its top economic-planning agency to those in charge of finance and housing, held at least a dozen closed-door discussions with economists to seek their advice.
âYou can feel the anxiety in the room,â said one of the economists who participated in two of the sessions in June. âThe consensus among the experts invited was that the government must act forcefully to stimulate growth.â
Li Qiang, a former Shanghai party boss, assumed the office of Chinese premier earlier this year. Photo: greg baker/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Then, for weeks, little happened. The government apparatus headed by the State Council, which has day-to-day responsibility for the economy, needs Xiâs signoff for any significant policy moveâa change from previous years when the State Council and Chinaâs premier, its No. 2 official, had more latitude in setting economic policy.
Even as the property market has become the biggest drag on growth, the government has continued to tread a cautious path toward relaxing policies embraced by Xi over the past few years to rein in speculative home buying and punish developers that expanded too quickly.
Many economists say China needs, in essence, to bail out the market, with more steps to help developers restructure their debts and complete unfinished projects, while boosting home buyersâ confidence through direct subsidies.
The perils of one-man rule
The top leaderâs apparent reluctance to embrace such moves, which people familiar with the matter say is partly rooted in his ideological preference for austerity, is alarming a public that was already growing worried that Beijing might have shifted its overarching priority away from economic growth toward other matters such as national security.
Some people point to how Beijing has tightened restrictions on foreign companies, on top of a longer-running crackdown on private technology companies, which has led to weaker growth.
âXiâs centralization of power has caused a crisis of confidence in Chinaâs economy not seen since 1978,â after Mao Zedongâs death, said Minxin Pei, a Claremont McKenna College professor and editor of the quarterly journal China Leadership Monitor, who has called on Xi to delegate more responsibility to revive economic dynamism.
âTo make people feel hopeful again about Chinaâs prospects, he would need to empower those who understand the economy to set the policy, like his predecessors since Deng Xiaoping did,â Pei said.
Deng, whose âreform and openingâ policies launched Chinaâs decadeslong boom, introduced a collective-leadership system to protect against one-man rule, gave capitalist forces wider room to flourish, and made the Communist Party cede some control to the government bureaucracy on matters such as the economy.
Consumer sentiment in China has been weak since a brief, post-Covid recovery gave way to a sharp slowdown. Photo: greg baker/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Xi, by contrast, has cemented his one-man rule, reined in private businesses and emphasized the partyâs leadership over all aspects of governance.
Some investors and entrepreneurs thought Beijing could be shifting toward a more pro-business, pro-growth approach when Xiâs handpicked premier, Li Qiang, took office earlier this year. The former Shanghai party boss is known among investors as a pragmatist.
Many of those hopes have since petered out, as Li and his team have done little to challenge Xiâs politics-in-command agenda.
Beijing sends mixed messages
By June, bad economic data was piling up. Some prominent voices in Chinaâs economic circles began speaking out publicly about the need for more-assertive action.
Yin Yanlin, a former senior economic adviser to the leadership, said in a public forum that the economy was significantly weakening and that more-forceful policies should be pursued without hesitation. Yin warned against the use of piecemeal policies, âas if a person is squeezing the toothpaste.â
Liu Yuanchun, a prominent Chinese economist who has advised the government, warned in a report published by a Renmin University of China think tank that Chinaâs record high youth unemployment rate could pose serious problems. He and his co-authors called for cash subsidies to households and steps to reinvigorate the private sector.
As economic worries mounted, Xi presided over a meeting on June 30 of Chinaâs Politburo leadership body. But the meeting didnât appear to be focused on macroeconomic issues, to the frustration of some Chinese economists who were advising the government.
An official account of the meeting published by Xinhua News Agency highlighted policy measures to support Xiâs plan to transform an area south of Beijing, known as the Xiongâan New Area, into an environmentally friendly, high-tech hub. Xi has described the Xiongâan plan, first announced in 2017, as Chinaâs â1,000-year project.â
A few weeks later Xi attended a meeting with a group of prominent party supporters, urging them to âstrengthen ideological and political guidanceâ for private entrepreneurs, interpreted publicly as a sign he wanted to keep a tight leash on the private sector.
While he acknowledged that the economy faced problems, he emphasized the positive.
âChinaâs economic recovery rate is leading among major global economies,â Xi said. Chinaâs growth rate was 5.5% during the first half of the year compared with a year earlier, though that result was boosted by strong activity in the early part of 2023. âThe long-term positive fundamentals havenât changed,â he said.
On July 24, Xi hosted a Politburo meeting to discuss the economy. Instead of announcing major stimulus, the official statement from the meeting pointed to overall continuity of policy and signaled the use of more-targeted measures to support growth.
There was one notable change. The Politburo statement didnât repeat Xiâs slogan âhousing is for living, not for speculation,â which has been used to signal Beijingâs desire to rein in speculative behavior by keeping home-purchasing rules tight.
That omission made room for lower-level officials and localities to ease policies to encourage more home buying. But they remained cautious about changing course drastically.
The latest steps by Chinaâs central bank and local governments have included cutting mortgage rates and lowering minimum down-payment ratios to spur home buying. Many restrictions on home purchases remain, such as limits on the number of properties families can buy in Chinaâs largest cities.
More-aggressive moves, such as rescuing major developers, are needed to ensure a recovery, said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.
The open question now is how to boost the property sector without fueling another asset bubble, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.
An article published Aug. 23 by Economic Daily, a state-owned newspaper, warned against reinflating the housing bubble, triggering fresh debate over Beijingâs commitment to rescuing the real-estate market.
The principle of housing is for living, not for speculation, must be adhered to in the long run, the article said, adding that âChina cannot go down the old path of relying on the real-estate sector and allowing home prices to appreciate too fast.â
Write to Lingling Wei at
Lingling.Wei@wsj.com and Stella Yifan Xie at
stella.xie@wsj.com
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