Rosenthal: The future of expanded playoffs is uncertain
The wild-card round might be the baseball equivalent of a sugar rush, but what a rush. Nonstop baseball, from the pitchers’ duels in the Braves-Reds series to the Yankees’ rollicking 10-9 victory over the Indians to the end of the Athletics’ nine-game losing streak in elimination games. Even if you hate expanding the postseason — and we know, many of you do — you have to admit, the last three days were awfully fun.
Well, for those who crave more sugar, enjoy it while it lasts.
The bitter taste from the sport’s sour labor-management relationship is likely to return shortly after the World Series ends, with implications not just for free agency and salary arbitration this winter, but also commissioner Rob Manfred’s desire to expand the postseason in 2021 and beyond.
The next battle over the playoffs will not be whether to keep the current format, which everyone knows needs tweaking; Manfred says Major League Baseball would prefer 14 teams instead of the pandemic-only 16, and greater incentives for division winners than mere home-field advantage in a first-round best-of-three. No, the next battle will be for the league to convince the Players Association, at a time of acute tension in player-owner relations, that expanded playoffs are a good idea at all.
As
I wrote in mid-September, many players opposed increasing the number of qualifiers from 10 to 16 teams even in this unprecedented season, and the union approved the idea only for 2020, not ’21. The union worries about making the path to the playoffs easier for teams at a time when it wants to incentivize competition rather than disincentivize it. The added physical stress on players from an extra round of games is another concern.
Even now, at the best time of year for baseball, the tension between the parties is palpable. Consider Francisco Lindor’s comments to reporters on Thursday, the day after the Indians were eliminated from the postseason. Lindor, a free agent after next season, was asked if the Indians can meet his asking price. “Of course, it’s a billion-dollar team,” he said, according to
The Athletic’s Zack Meisel. Then, when asked whether COVID-19 might have a negative impact on long-term deals, Lindor replied with his own question: “Did you just see MLB just signed a $3 billion (TV) contract?”
Lindor was referring to the seven-year, $3.7 billion deal MLB recently signed with Turner, a 65 percent annual increase over its prior agreement. The league previously had negotiated a seven-year, $5.1 billion deal with Fox over the same span, from 2022 to ’28. Yet, Manfred, as well as officials from the
Red Sox,
Cubs and other clubs, continue to express concern about the industry’s revenue shortfalls in 2020 and the uncertainty that awaits in ’21 if effects from the pandemic linger. The league says about 40 percent of its revenues come from game-day sources, and estimates the industry will lose $3 billion this season. People in the sport are losing jobs, and will continue to lose jobs.
If these were normal times, and if league and union officials enjoyed a greater trust, the way to persuade players to accept additional playoffs might be to simply give them more money. The players typically receive a percentage of the gate receipts from the postseason. This year, with no fans expected until the National League Championship Series and World Series in Arlington, Texas (and even then, only about 11,500 per game), the players agreed to a $50 million bonus pool, a small percentage of the estimated $1 billion in network television revenue the league will generate in the postseason.
So, increase the bonus pool next year, the final one of the current collective-bargaining agreement, and tweak the format to make the expanded postseason one of the levers that addresses the players’ competitive concerns in the next CBA? Sounds great in theory. Alas, the negotiating landscape will be far more complex. The union did not secure protections for free agency and salary arbitration in its negotiations with the league regarding the 2020 season. The players are likely to grow further agitated with the owners when, as many club officials and agents predict, teams clamp down on salaries.
If a national emergency is still in effect when the 2021 season opens next April, would Manfred again seek to suspend contracts? If parks do not open to full capacity, would another dispute over player compensation take place? When the parties during the summer were unable to strike a deal accounting for empty parks, Manfred imposed a 60-game regular season, then later reached an agreement with the union on expanded playoffs.
The risk of another protracted fight is substantial on multiple levels. The parties would lose any goodwill they established by successfully partnering on a season many thought would be impossible to complete. They also would lose any momentum they might gain from a postseason that, for all of its flaws, is serving a welcome respite for many from the monotony of life during the pandemic.
It’s not ideal that the Brewers, a team that failed to get above .500 all season, made the playoffs. It’s not ideal that the Astros, a team that also finished below .500, upset the Twins, a team that tied for the second-best record in the American League, in the first round. But the possibility of such outcomes can be reduced, if not outright eliminated, in a 14-team postseason with a different format.
The league’s
initial idea was for the team with the best record in each league to receive a first-round bye and advance directly to the Division Series. The two other division winners and the top wild card would host all three games in a best-of-three wild-card round, similar to what is happening this postseason. Under such a plan, only the Dodgers and Rays would have avoided the risk of a first-round upset this year. As incentives go, at least from the union’s perspective, that might not be enough.
No one is quite sure whether certain teams would spend more trying to reach the postseason, or less knowing the bar for qualifying was lower. High-revenue teams, with only one bye available in each league, also might be less inclined to exert a maximum push. Home-field advantage, even when fans are present, is an overrated enticement. Over the past 10 years, the home team won 53.4 percent of regular-season games, 54.8 percent of postseason games. In 2019, the road team won every game of a seven-game World Series for the first time.
Perhaps MLB could adopt a plan similar to that used by the 10-team Korea Baseball Organization (KBO), which pits its fourth- and fifth-place clubs in a best-of-three wild-card round but starts the fourth-place club with one win. The fourth-place club, then, needs only one win to advance, while the fifth-place club needs two. The top seed in the KBO also goes straight to the league’s version of the World Series, with the other qualifiers battling for the right to be its opponent. MLB would never go for such a plan, which this year would have the Dodgers, a ratings magnet, appear only in the World Series. But the league surely could devise an expanded postseason that is both exciting and fair, satisfying the needs of its various constituencies — players, owners, fans, network partners.
Consider this year’s wild-card round a first draft, but when we’ll see a second is anyone’s guess. Enjoy the sugar. It might be a while before the players and owners offer another taste.
