Minnesota
Trend to break: Minnesota has not finished ranked in the AP poll since 2003, which is tied for the third-longest active drought among Power 5 teams. It has not won a Big Ten title since 1967 and has yet to appear in the conference championship game.
Breakout chances: After a 5-7 debut, P.J. Fleck pushed the Golden Gophers back to a bowl game in 2018. That team’s young roster ended the school’s 14-year losing streak against rival Wisconsin amid a wildly inconsistent season in which they got blown out by Maryland, Nebraska and Illinois.
The Gophers return nearly everyone on offense. Sophomore quarterbacks Tanner Morgan and Zack Annexstad both showed flashes in splitting starts in 2018, though Morgan is now in the driver’s seat after Annexstad injured his foot at the start of preseason practice. Regardless of what happens at quarterback, the Gophers have solid returning supporting talent, including an All-Big Ten receiver in Tyler Johnson and nearly all of the team’s receiving production, plus two players who have rushed for 1,000 yards in a season in Rodney Smith and Mohamed Ibrahim.
Throw in a stellar pass rush led by Carter Coughlin and talent in the secondary, and Minnesota could make a surprise push to get to Indianapolis if it finds stability at quarterback. The Big Ten West
is increasingly competitive with Jeff Brohm at Purdue and Scott Frost at Nebraska, and the Huskers are the trendy breakout pick, but don’t sleep on the Gophers. They have a manageable schedule — Penn State visits Minneapolis, and Rutgers and Maryland are the other two East games — and a handful of strong pieces in place to make them a legitimate threat to win the West.
Nebraska
Trend to break: Nebraska has not finished in the AP Top 25 since 2012 or the top 10 since 2001. It has had three losing records in four years after posting only two losing records from 1962-2014. It has not won a conference championship since the Big 12 in 1999.
Breakout chances: Nebraska was the best program
of the 1990s, but it hasn’t had fewer than four losses in a season since Frank Solich’s final year in 2003. It has been mired in a decade-and-a-half identity crisis, one that the Huskers hope is finally solved after the hiring of 1997 national championship quarterback Scott Frost as head coach. Frost went 4-8 in his debut, but he inherited a mess and showed signs of improvement down the stretch. The Huskers won four of their last six games, and their last three losses were by five points or fewer.
The preseason hype exists for a few reasons. Frost has engineered an impressive turnaround before, inheriting a winless team at UCF and going undefeated in his second season. And at Nebraska, he has already found a match at quarterback in promising sophomore Adrian Martinez. Martinez is a foundational player for Frost to build around, and in Year 2 of Frost’s system, the Huskers will make significant strides.
The question is if true breakthrough optimism should wait until 2020. The offense is on the right track, but building a championship-caliber defense is another matter. After all, the Huskers’ defense ranked 88th in points allowed and lose five of their top six tacklers. They also lose a thousand-yard runner (Devine Ozigbo) and a thousand-yard receiver (Stanley Morgan).
The good news: Games against Ohio State, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa are all at home, and the Huskers draw Indiana and Maryland as two of their crossover games. The top 10 is an unreasonable reach after a 4-8 season; winning an increasingly competitive but still wide-open Big Ten West is not.
Virginia
Trend to break: Virginia has not beaten Virginia Tech since 2003, has not finished ranked in the AP poll since 2004 and has not appeared in the ACC championship game.
Breakout chances: The bandwagon is quickly filling up, including reporters projecting Virginia to win the Coastal division at ACC media days. The attention might start to be too much, but there are plenty of good reasons for it. Bronco Mendenhall took BYU to 11 bowl games in 11 years, winning at least 10 games five times. After a rough debut in Charlottesville, Mendenhall got the Cavs back to their first bowl in six years, then led them to a 7-5 regular-season record and a 28-0 pummeling of South Carolina in the Belk Bowl last year.
The Cavs ran out of gas in November, losing their last three ACC games — including heartbreakers to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in overtime — while struggling with a lack of depth. But they had a 1-3 record in close games and were in the middle of the pack nationally in turnovers, meaning there is room for growth. That should continue with the return of
underrated quarterback Bryce Perkins, who threw for 2,680 yards, rushed for 923 yards and accounted for 34 total touchdowns.
Perkins needs more weapons to emerge around him, but he will be supported by a stellar defense that gave up nearly 14 fewer points per game than Mendenhall’s debut team two years earlier. Eight of the top 10 tacklers are back, led by cornerback Bryce Hall, after the Cavs ranked 12th nationally in pass efficiency defense.
Their schedule includes Florida State from the Atlantic and a trip to Notre Dame, but the Seminoles visit Charlottesville and the Coastal remains eminently winnable — potentially coming down to an Oct. 11 trip to Miami. The ACC, and the race for a potential Orange Bowl bid, is wide-open behind Clemson. Virginia has the second-best quarterback in the conference and at least a top-half defense.
This is the year to finally beat the Hokies. If the Cavs can do that, they have a good chance of becoming the seventh different Coastal program to win the division in a seven-year span.
Florida International
Trend to break: FIU has not won 10 games in a season since its 2002 program debut, and it has not won a conference title since sharing the 2010 Sun Belt title.
Breakout chances: After the decision to part ways with Mario Cristobal and hire Ron Turner backfired, FIU has staged a swift turnaround under Butch Davis. Davis has been overshadowed by Lane Kiffin over the past two years, but he has one more win in his two seasons than his crosstown rival, leading the Panthers to an 8-5 mark in 2017 and a 9-4 record last year. The next step: Getting to the Conference USA championship game and winning it.
The Panthers have yet to represent the C-USA East division in the conference title game, as they finished a game behind Middle Tennessee last year despite beating the Blue Raiders. The division will be competitive again at the top with Florida Atlantic and Marshall appearing to be top contenders, but FIU stands a good chance of building on Davis’ first two seasons and jumping to the forefront.
Sixteen starters return to a team that went 6-2 in Conference USA and beat Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. Bowling Green transfer quarterback James Morgan threw 26 touchdowns with seven interceptions last year, and he has an experienced supporting cast. The Panthers’ defense made strides last year and returns six of its top seven tacklers, led by linebacker Sage Lewis. This is an experienced roster with a proven quarterback and, even though it plays FAU and Marshall on the road, FIU has one of the easiest schedules in the country: Miami is the only Power 5 opponent, and the Panthers draw UTEP as one of two crossover opponents.