2017 NFL Draft: Which running backs raise red flags as potential fumblers?
Vision. Balance. Burst. These are the main traits scouts look for in running backs. But ball security also is crucial for the NFL transition. A high fumble rate for a running backs is worrisome the same way a high interception total is for a quarterbacks because they are expected to touch the ball at least 20-25 times a game.
The average fumble rate for the top-10 rushers in the
NFL last season was 108.5, or once for every 108.5 offensive touches.
Two running backs projected in the first round of our most recent
mock drafts, Florida State's
Dalvin Cook (63.8) and LSU's
Leonard Fournette (82.1), posted less-than-ideal career fumble rates.
Stanford's
Christian McCaffrey, who colleague Rob Rang
projects as a first-rounder, has one of the best rates (243.7).
Chicago Bears rookie running back
Jordan Howard posted one of the better collegiate fumble rates (111.8) in the 2016 draft class. And that translated for him as a first-year player, fumbling only once over 281 offensive touches.
In the 2015
NFL Draft class,
Detroit Lions running back
Ameer Abdullah had one of the highest fumble rates in recent memory (35.4). And so far as a pro, ball security has been an issue for him with four fumbles over 191 offensive touches for a 47.8 fumble rate.
Below are the career offensive fumble rates for the top running back prospects in the 2017 NFL Draft class, broken down into five categories:
Elite (150 or better)
- 856.0: Kareem Hunt, Toledo
- 434.0: Joseph Yearby, Miami (Fla.)
- 266.5: De'Veon Smith, Michigan
- 243.7: Christian McCaffrey, Stanford
- 168.0: Elijah McGuire, Louisiana-Lafayette
- 157.2: Jamaal Williams, BYU
Above Average (125-149)
- 148.2: Wayne Gallman, Clemson
- 136.0: Brian Hill, Wyoming
- 129.6: Matthew Dayes, N.C. State
- 124.7: Tarean Folston, Notre Dame
Average (100-124)
Below Average (75-99)
- 99.7: James Conner, Pittsburgh
- 96.6: Tarik Cohen, North Carolina A&T
- 86.4: Corey Clement, Wisconsin
- 82.1: Leonard Fournette, LSU
- 81.0: Aaron Jones, UTEP
- 79.0: T.J. Logan, North Carolina
- 78.5: Elijah Hood, North Carolina
Red Flag (Worse than 75)
- 74.9: Jeremy McNichols, Boise State
- 74.3: D'Onta Foreman, Texas
- 73.0: Joe Mixon, Oklahoma
- 71.0: Alvin Kamara, Tennessee
- 69.8: Curtis Samuel, Ohio State
- 65.4: Taquan Mizzell, Virginia
- 63.8: Dalvin Cook, Florida State
- 57.7: Boom Williams, Kentucky
- 56.3: Justin Davis, USC
- 54.3: Marlon Mack, South Florida
- 52.2: Marcus Cox, Appalachian State
- 51.1: DeAngelo Henderson, Coastal Carolina