Why Ohio State is the only team that could knock out Alabama
By Stewart MandelNov 7, 2016 at 9:50a ET
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Hey everybody. It’s Monday. Time for Immediate Recovery.
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During our
Facebook Live wrap-up show Saturday night, Bruce Feldman threw out a curveball question that initially flustered myself and our host Kristen Balboni: Rank the three teams we think would have the best shot of beating Alabama.
My first thought was … three? Can we start with one?
We’d just finished watching the Tide suck the last drops of blood out of valiant challenger LSU, blanking the Tigers 10-0. Yes, ‘Bama went three quarters without scoring, but only the most ardent believers in SEC BIAS came away from that game unimpressed with Nick Saban’s team.
The Tide’s swarming defense held LSU star Leonard Fournette below 40 yards for the second straight year. They held the Tigers scoreless despite two Jalen Hurts turnovers on LSU’s side of the field. And their freshman quarterback weathered those mistakes and three quarters of heavy duress to eventually lead a 90-yard drive culminating in his own 21-yard touchdown run.
Alabama is not unbeatable by any means. Heck, if LSU had even an above-average quarterback to complement Fournette and that defense it might have won Saturday night.
It’s just that there’s not an obvious foil.
Surging Auburn (7-2) likely has the best remaining shot in the regular season. Running back Kamryn Pettway is averaging 192.5 yards over his last four games, while Carl Lawson and the Tigers’ defense ranks fourth in the SEC (5.0 yards per play). Still, Auburn pulling a 2016 Iron Bowl upset would be infinitely more stunning than their 2010 and ’13 wins.
So let’s turn to possible playoff opponents.
Michigan fans presumably believe their thus-far dominant team is the closest thing to Alabama’s equal. The 9-0 Wolverines sit just behind Alabama at No. 2 nationally in total defense and rank higher in total offense (No. 13 versus No. 19). After thumping Maryland 59-3 on Saturday, they are beating their opponents by a national-best margin of 37.3 points per game.
But Jim Harbaugh’s pro-style team, perhaps good enough to beat almost any team in the country, makes for a bad matchup against Saban’s team.
You’re not going to out-Alabama Alabama. Ask LSU. While Wolverines QB Wilton Speight is more formidable than LSU’s Danny Etling and their offense more imaginative in general (Jabrill Peppers as Wildcat QB), Saban’s six losses over the past five years have all come against spread offenses with quarterbacks who can run.
Which brings us to
Clemson. We know Deshaun Watson can neutralize Alabama’s defense, because he did it in last year’s national title game. And most of the weapons who helped him do it – RB Wayne Gallman, WRs Hunter Renfrow and Artavis Scott, TE Jordan Leggett – are still there.
But the turnover-prone Tigers (9-0) have not inspired the same degree of confidence in 2016 as they did in 2015. Every notable game on their schedule has required an 11th-hour escape. If anything, Alabama is the elite team that could make Clemson pay for its mistakes in a way its ACC foes have not.
Though it lost to Clemson, 8-1 Louisville boasts potentially the ultimate Kryptonite in electrifying dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. One could see the potential Heisman winner demystifying the Tide’s defense in much the same way former Heisman QBs Cam Newton (2010) and Johnny Manziel (2012) did.
Louisville’s problem is it appears increasingly unlikely to get the opportunity from the committee since Clemson is about to wrap up the ACC Atlantic.
Washington (9-0) is a potential wild-card. Chris Petersen’s team is dominating the West Coast thanks in large part to ultra-efficient QB Jake Browning (34 TDs, three INTs). I love watching the Huskies, but it’s hard for me to project how they’d fare against mighty Alabama when they have not beaten an opponent remotely of that caliber this year or even anytime in the program’s recent history.
Which brings us to my answer. The team I’d give the best shot of beating this year’s Alabama team is the same one that handed the Tide their last postseason defeat -- Ohio State.
At the same time the Tide were sweating it out with LSU on Saturday night, Urban Meyer’s 8-1 team was handing Nebraska the second-worst defeat, 62-3, of any game in history between Top 10 opponents. Yes, the Huskers (7-2) were pretty obviously overrated … but not by THAT much. Just a week earlier they went to Madison and took a legit top 10 Wisconsin team to overtime.
Ohio State’s secondary flourished yet again Saturday, with safeties Damon Webb and Malik Hooker notching pick-sixes. (The
Buckeyes now have a school-record six this season.) More importantly, after a month-long funk, the Buckeyes’ offense exploded Saturday behind QB J.T. Barrett and RB/WR Curtis Samuel.
Are the 2016 Buckeyes on the level of their 2014 predecessors? Not yet. But that team, like many of Meyer’s, was a lot better by the postseason than it was for much of the regular season.
Ohio State will have to knock off Michigan on Nov. 26 to even have a chance to possibly match up with Alabama. If they can get there, though, they have three key ingredients for that matchup – an elite coach, elite recruits and a dynamic dual-threat QB.
It’s a pretty simple formula.
In fact, it’s Alabama’s.
And now, a few more takeaways from Week 10 as we reset the landscape for Week 11.