The Horn of Africa Current Events Thread

[2Quik4UHoes]

On God, I want us to fukkin bomb on Egypt I am so fukkin sick of these racist sand cac neocolonial poodle ass bytch made faggits!

It’s hella obvious what’s going on here. Bring the GERD situation to the UNSC because of America’s veto, make threats in the UN Sec. Council meeting of violence, and then outta nowhere on the same day the biggest Oromo artist speaking truth to power gets gunned down? And now all the ethnic tensions coming back after everyone united behind the GERD.

Square business unless you a Black Egyptian or a cool Arab I fukkin hate them and wish nothin but the worst. I hope Sinai secedes, I hope Libyan violence spills over, I hope Hamas fukks them up, I hope every bad fukkin thing that can be hoped cuz this shyt been going on for too fukkin long. bytch ass sand cacs mothafukk them

 

[Bawon Samedi]

On God, I want us to fukkin bomb on Egypt I am so fukkin sick of these racist sand cac neocolonial poodle ass bytch made faggits!

It’s hella obvious what’s going on here. Bring the GERD situation to the UNSC because of America’s veto, make threats in the UN Sec. Council meeting of violence, and then outta nowhere on the same day the biggest Oromo artist speaking truth to power gets gunned down? And now all the ethnic tensions coming back after everyone united behind the GERD.

Square business unless you a Black Egyptian or a cool Arab I fukkin hate them and wish nothin but the worst. I hope Sinai secedes, I hope Libyan violence spills over, I hope Hamas fukks them up, I hope every bad fukkin thing that can be hoped cuz this shyt been going on for too fukkin long. bytch ass sand cacs mothafukk them

I think the Egyptians assassinated that Oromo activist to cause chaos.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

I think the Egyptians assassinated that Oromo activist to cause chaos.

And they most likely used a sellout piece of shyt Ethiopian collaborator in order to do it. Time is of the essence for them and since they can barely keep shyt together in Sinai and Sisi’s lil pet Haftar is losing in Libya the only card they have is to sow chaos.

Sometimes I hate that ET is so disunited, I hate that they be overly classy and friendly sometimes, fukk Egypt blow up Aswan if they want more water. bytch ass sand crackers.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Guess we back to arguing and killing each other again....

Egypt and they bandas stay fukkin us over. All those fake paper scholars, fake leaders, all them failed the youth and got em listening to demagoguery.

 

[JDH]

Guess we back to arguing and killing each other again....

Egypt and they bandas stay fukkin us over. All those fake paper scholars, fake leaders, all them failed the youth and got em listening to demagoguery.

Could def have been some egyptian sleeper cell type shyt lol

 

[thatrapsfan]

Could def have been some egyptian sleeper cell type shyt lol

@2Quik4UHoes

Im skeptical, only because Egypt is far less sophisticated as a military and geopolitical player than they pretend. Id be honestly stunned if Egypt planned this, I dont think their handle on Ethiopian politics/society is as deep as many Ethiopians think. Just look at how badly their Libya play fizzled and this is in a neighouring Arab country, where they share the language etc, and they havent been able to project power at all. Ive watched Egyptian talk shows/news attempt to talk about Ethiopian politics in context of GERD and even their negative propaganda is amateurish and highlights their ignorance.


Speaking of Abiy, I find it interesting how his original critics haven't acknowledged that their worst fears on him were not confirmed? Shouldnt more Ethiopians who critique ethnic politics rally behind him? He's been steadfast on GERD and has faced down former allies.

IMO this was about domestic Ethiopian politics. I dont think the TPLF possibility should be dismissed:mjpls A more left field, but not impossible possibility is that a more extreme OLF faction killed dude to burn ish down for Abiy and the Government. We already know they thought Abiy sold out the cause before this, and I find it a little strange that Hundeesa's support for Abiy is being spun into strong opposition after his death

 

[JDH]

@2Quik4UHoes

Im skeptical, only because Egypt is far less sophisticated as a military and geopolitical player than they pretend. Id be honestly stunned if Egypt planned this, I dont think their handle on Ethiopian politics/society is as deep as many Ethiopians think. Just look at how badly their Libya play fizzled and this is in a neighouring Arab country, where they share the language etc, and they havent been able to project power at all. Ive watched Egyptian talk shows/news attempt to talk about Ethiopian politics in context of GERD and even their negative propaganda is amateurish and highlights their ignorance.


Speaking of Abiy, I find it interesting how his original critics haven't acknowledged that their worst fears on him were not confirmed? Shouldnt more Ethiopians who critique ethnic politics rally behind him? He's been steadfast on GERD and has faced down former allies.

IMO this was about domestic Ethiopian politics. I dont think the TPLF possibility should be dismissed:mjpls A more left field, but not impossible possibility is that a more extreme OLF faction killed dude to burn ish down for Abiy and the Government. We already know they thought Abiy sold out the cause before this, and I find it a little strange that Hundeesa's support for Abiy is being spun into strong opposition after his death

Maybe but tbh killing a dude doesn't really require a high degree of sophistication. I don't know if the Libya comparison is fair because unlike Libya where Egypt's interest is to protect its own security and delivering a secure and stable common border which requires a more cohesive long term strategy their interests in ethiopia are completely different. Egypt wants to keep ethiopia in a constant state of chaos and been promoting dissident groups and armed rebel groups for decades since an internally weak ethiopia benefits them. I do see them having the capabilities of achieving this aim and imo their track record shows it. The Libya conflict is also a lot more internationalized where Egypt is going up against some big players so not as easy to project power. I doubt OLF was behind it but who knows

 

[thatrapsfan]

Maybe but tbh killing a dude doesn't really require a high degree of sophistication. I don't know if the Libya comparison is fair because unlike Libya where Egypt's interest is to protect its own security and delivering a secure and stable common border which requires a more cohesive long term strategy their interests in ethiopia are completely different. Egypt wants to keep ethiopia in a constant state of chaos and been promoting dissident groups and armed rebel groups for decades since an internally weak ethiopia benefits them. I do see them having the capabilities of achieving this aim and imo their track record shows it. The Libya conflict is also a lot more internationalized where Egypt is going up against some big players so not as easy to project power. I doubt OLF was behind it but who knows

It may seem obvious now given the fallout, but two weeks ago Hundeesa wasn't on anyones radar outside of Ethiopia.

His domestic popularity speaks for itself, but would he be on a top 5 or even 10 most prominent Ethiopian political figures prior his killing? If you look at foreign reporting, he was hardly ever mentioned until his killing. IMO it would take a degree of sophistication and familiarity with Ethiopia, which I dont think Egypt possesses, to identify him as a target of political assassination. Who are the political parties/groups that answer to the Egyptian call in Ethiopia today? I dont see any group that can qualify as an Egyptian proxy at all.

Eritrea was a far more influential backer of Ethiopian rebel groups in past two decades, than Egypt was. Aside of limited financial support, it had very little influence on formation or objectives of OLF, ONLF, etc. I think the Egyptian role has been exaggerated at various times by the Government, sometimes to its own benefit. Here's a blast from the past when the Oromo protests first starting flaring up: Ethiopia blames ‘foreign enemies’ Egypt and Eritrea for wave of unrest Do you believe that the protests were fueled by an Egyptian backed conspiracy? Ironically, the incentive for Egypt to play up their influence has increased as they face internal backlash for appearing on the losing end of the Nile dispute. Hence why you have Egyptian analysts on state media claiming they have unlimited options to force Ethiopia to back down on the dam. To me its very much bluster.

On the Libya comparision, its imperfect, but the main point for me is the big gap between how Egypt projects an image of military and intelligence capabilties and the reality.

All this leads me back to the theory that its domestic politics behind this. Who has an incentive to see Abiy and his government be further discredited? The answer to that q has grown over the past year

 

[thatrapsfan]

On a side note, its interesting that Abiy attracts intense criticism from opposite sides of the spectrum in Ethiopian politics

Oromo nationalists say he's sold them out, while others seem to blame him for unravelling the country.

 

[JDH]

It may seem obvious now given the fallout, but two weeks ago Hundeesa wasn't on anyones radar outside of Ethiopia.

His domestic popularity speaks for itself, but would he be on a top 5 or even 10 most prominent Ethiopian political figures prior his killing? If you look at foreign reporting, he was hardly ever mentioned until his killing. IMO it would take a degree of sophistication and familiarity with Ethiopia, which I dont think Egypt possesses, to identify him as a target of political assassination. Who are the political parties/groups that answer to the Egyptian call in Ethiopia today? I dont see any group that can qualify as an Egyptian proxy at all.

Eritrea was a far more influential backer of Ethiopian rebel groups in past two decades, than Egypt was. Aside of limited financial support, it had very little influence on formation or objectives of OLF, ONLF, etc. I think the Egyptian role has been exaggerated at various times by the Government, sometimes to its own benefit. Here's a blast from the past when the Oromo protests first starting flaring up: Ethiopia blames ‘foreign enemies’ Egypt and Eritrea for wave of unrest Do you believe that the protests were fueled by an Egyptian backed conspiracy? Ironically, the incentive for Egypt to play up their influence has increased as they face internal backlash for appearing on the losing end of the Nile dispute. Hence why you have Egyptian analysts on state media claiming they have unlimited options to force Ethiopia to back down on the dam. To me its very much bluster.

On the Libya comparision, its imperfect, but the main point for me is the big gap between how Egypt projects an image of military and intelligence capabilties and the reality.

All this leads me back to the theory that its domestic politics behind this. Who has an incentive to see Abiy and his government be further discredited? The answer to that q has grown over the past year

Good points. And you're right I had no idea who this dude was prior to him getting killed lol. Simegnew bekele, seare mekonnen, asaminew tsige, gizae aberra, Hundeesa etc.. been a lot of high profile assassinations since Abiy came to power. Idk if its random

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

@thatrapsfan

Egypt’s role may or may not be exaggerated in this particular situation. However, their history of this type of behavior always makes them a potential suspect whether they might be an ancillary contributor or primary one. But I definitely agree that Egypt’s military and overall projection of hegemonic influence in the Nile valley/HOA is more bluster and their relationship with America than anything else. But I certainly don’t underestimate them regarding being able to have nuanced knowledge of the political situation on Ethiopia. They might be to the far north but they are still in the neighborhood. I also wouldn’t be surprised if there are Ethiopian agents clandestinely working for Egypt because there’s a history of Ethiopians’ collaborations with enemy states. Money talks. And I don’t think Egypt minds funding pet projects like this to ensure Ethiopia remains in a condition of instability. Certainly we here in the West didn’t know much about Hachalu, however if he had a role like that as an Oromo activist musician that was a political prisoner then it doesn’t take too much of a genius to think that a mysterious murder in the midst of tensions rising might not set off some flames.

The same day as the UNSC meeting no less. This is a much more convenient way of delaying and perhaps getting rid of a problem for Sisi. He’s too busy in Sinai and Libya nor would it be practical to use military force in Ethiopia.

However, there’s definitely a chance that internal forces are entirely behind this. The TPLF would be a top suspect as they’re generally turned off by Abiy and do have motivations of weakening his mandate. And also like you mentioned, the more extreme elements of the Oromo movement and OLF sympathizers would have motivations to destabilize Abiy’s control as a means of sparking revolution within the Oromia region including the capital.

At the end of the day, Abiy’s many sweeping reforms included releasing and allowing all different dissenters and groups right to return as well as releasing damn near all political prisoners. Releasing all those different elements into an already hot cauldron of simmering tension was bound to create situations like this.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Best two videos I’ve seen on Ethiopia in years!




Especially the second one. Gashe Ephraim completely laid out all the good and bad of Ethiopia and the region at large because I’d suspect some of the same or similar issues permeated throughout the area.

 

[loyola llothta]

Ethiopia Will Continue Diplomatic Effort on GERD, Says Abiy Ahmed

Tuesday, July 07, 2020

Borkena
July 7, 2020

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appeared in the parliament on Tuesday. The 2013 Ethiopian budget was the agenda item but he also faced questions related to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Some parliamentarians noted that Egypt has been making an effort to disrupt Ethiopia’s development, at times through the agency of political forces in the country that are inimical to Ethiopia.

In video footage from state Media, Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation, one parliamentarian is seen posting the question to the Prime Minister.

“…using water from Abay [the Nile River] is a matter of survival for Ethiopia. Where are we in terms of the diplomatic effort and what is the future plan in that direction?” he said. The level of project completion is another question posed to the prime minister.

Abiy said that negotiation with lower riparian countries is not halted. He also said that Ethiopia will continue to have a talk with countries from the lower and upper course of the Nile River.

In terms of negotiation strategy, he painted the “African problem with African solution”, which is a reference to the involvement of the African Union as a mediator, as a sort of success story for Ethiopia.

“Ethiopia will continue to uphold the principle of equitable use of the water by all riparian countries,” he reiterated.

The Prime Minister seems to have a positivist view of project completion. It is extricated from poor management after the new leadership, he asserted. To demonstrate that, he said that the dam is currently at 560 meters high which is 35 meters up from what it was when he took over power.

Meanwhile, the state media reported that preparation for filling the initial stages of the water is completed and will start filling some time in mid-July.

On June 29, 2020, Hachalu Hundessa, an Ethiopian singer who is popular for his Oromo songs, was killed in the capital. A preliminary investigation from fourteen suspects, as disclosed by the Attorney General, reveals that the killing was orchestrated to trigger a civil war in Ethiopia. And the government claims that the internal and external enemies of Ethiopia took part in the planning.

Egypt covertly implicated in the assassination. For most Ethiopians, Egypt has always been looking for a means to destabilize Ethiopia, and extremists Oromo nationalists are perceived to have links with Egypt. In the 19th century, Egypt attempted to directly engage Ethiopia militarily but failed twice after losing battles in Gundet and Gura. Since then Egypt has rather been trying to destabilize Ethiopia indirectly. There is a growing bitterness towards Egypt due to what many believe to be Egyptian relentless effort to destabilize Ethiopia exploiting internal fissures.

Link:Pan-African News Wire

 

[FAH1223]