that's correct, the often-cited statistic that 50% of marriages end in divorce is not accurate. The divorce rate varies by country, time period, and a range of sociodemographic factors, and it has been changing over time.
In the United States, for example, the divorce rate has been declining for several decades. As of my last update in April 2023, research indicated that the divorce rate was closer to 40-45% and was continuing to trend downwards. This decline has been attributed to various factors, including changes in societal attitudes towards marriage, the increasing age at which people first get married, and the higher likelihood of cohabitation before marriage.
It's also important to note that the rate can vary significantly based on specific factors such as education level, income, and the age at marriage. Couples who marry at a younger age, for example, have historically been more likely to divorce than those who marry later.
Furthermore, statistical measures like the crude divorce rate (divorces per 1,000 people in the population) or the refined divorce rate (divorces per 1,000 married women) can give different pictures of divorce trends and can be influenced by other demographic factors like the overall marriage rate.
Thus, while the "50% divorce rate" myth persists in popular culture, it oversimplifies a complex issue and doesn't accurately reflect current trends and variations in divorce statistics.