Hornets need an efficient, high-volume scoring wing
Personnel needs:
Over the past four years, the Hornets have finished 30th, 28th, 24th and 28th in offensive efficiency. The defense has been in the top 10 two years running. Simply put, Charlotte needs scorers like a spider needs a web. Or something like that.
Kemba Walker and
Al Jefferson are scorers, but in Steve Clifford's system and on Rich Cho's roster, they have to work really hard for their points. The Hornets must get an efficient, high-volume scoring wing to up the efficiency ante. It's the only way Charlotte will get off the playoff bubble. If that means burying a pricey veteran on the depth chart -- ahem,
Lance Stephenson -- then so be it. With this one need filled, the Hornets' roster suddenly looks a lot more sound. Simple, right?
Major need: We already stated the need for the scoring star. Let's face it, the chance of finding a great NBA scorer beyond the first pick or two is slim. Of course, Charlotte has done it before. But let's say Cho and Michael Jordan don't see this as a final-piece type of need and instead see another glaring problem with Charlotte's statistical dossier. Here's the Hornets' effective field goal percentage rank the past four years: 30th, 30th, 25th, 30th. Not good. But a defensively oriented team can at least in part make up for wayward shooting with second-chance points, the way Memphis used to do. Here's Charlotte's rank in offensive rebound percentage over the past four years: 27th, 18th, 26th, 29th. Yes, to a certain extent, offensive rebounding is a choice. In this case, it's the wrong one. If Charlotte can't find that missing high-level perimeter scorer, it needs to find some offensive rebounding. To be fair, this again may be as simple as deciding to hit the offensive glass, because the Hornets have led the league in defensive rebound percentage the past two years under Clifford.
Quiet need: The Hornets got a glimpse of how much better their offense can look during the period
Mo Williams was running the show while Walker was injured. Williams is no building block, especially at this stage of his career, and if Charlotte loses him to free agency it will need an instant-offense guard for the second unit. A backup center might be in order as well if
Bismack Biyombo is allowed to depart. If Charlotte tenders a qualifying offer to Biyombo by June 30, he'll be a restricted free agent. However, it's not a given that Cho will make that offer. Presumably he will have made this decision before draft night.
NBA Draft 2015
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Not a need: Walker begins a four-year, $48 million extension in 2015-16, so he's Charlotte's starting point guard for the foreseeable future. Also, in
Cody Zeller,
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and
Noah Vonleh, Charlotte has plenty of recent lottery picks whose athletic upside continues to outshine their actual production. There are lots of reasons to still be excited about those guys, but given Jefferson's age, the Hornets need more skill, polish and dependable production on the roster.
Depth chart
Jobs in jeopardy: The starting 2-guard spot is the most obvious area for an upgrade, even though Stephenson was given a three-year deal last summer. However, the third season is a team option, and if you have to leave Stephenson and his $9 million salary for 2015-16 at the end of the bench, so be it. Of course, Stephenson could bounce back, but Charlotte has to proceed as if he won't.
Gerald Henderson Jr., if he doesn't opt out, doesn't provide enough offense, and
P.J. Hairston isn't ready for a major role.
Don't mess with it: Walker and the young trio are the keys to the roster, and Jefferson will be for at least next season, assuming he exercises his $13.5 million player option coming off an injury-plagued season. Eventually, Charlotte might have to decide between Zeller and Vonleh, and based on the latter part of last season, Vonleh might be the pick there. Kidd-Gilchrist may always be a work in progress as a jump shooter, but he's showing
Tony Allen-type potential with the rest of his game.
What free agency could solve
The most likely scenario is that Charlotte will be filling out its roster with exceptions. If Henderson and Jefferson exercise their options, Charlotte will be near the salary cap just in terms of returning guaranteed contracts, and that doesn't include a possible $5.2 million cap hold for Biyombo and whatever
Mo Williams ends up getting. If Charlotte can't unload Stephenson and otherwise wants to keep the band together, it is more likely to upgrade via the draft than through free agency, even if that pick turns out to be trade fodder. There is enough breathing room under the likely tax line for Cho to get creative when upgrading the Hornets' offense.
How they draft
Where they draft well: The Hornets have had a lot of premium picks in recent seasons, and really the jury is still out as to how Cho, Jordan and former front-office voice Rod Higgins have done with them. Walker (No. 9, 2011) was good enough to get an extension. Kidd-Gilchrist, Zeller and Vonleh all certainly look like long-term NBA players. But will any of them be a star? Hairston -- another draft-night acquisition -- has a lot of offensive potential, especially for a guy taken at No. 26 last season.
Where they don't draft well: Biyombo, acquired in a draft-night deal after being taking seventh in 2011, has been an offensive cipher and really represents the biggest miss of the current regime. In retrospect, we can now look at the draft and see he was taken one spot ahead of
Brandon Knight and three spots ahead of
Klay Thompson.
Three best fits
Justise Winslow, SF, Duke (Chad Ford Big Board ranking: No. 6): The Hornets will most likely pick ninth. They have a 12 percent chance of ending up at No. 10, and a 6 percent shot at landing in the top three. If the latter happens,
Karl-Anthony Towns and
Jahlil Okafor would be obvious choices even if it creates a frontcourt logjam that would eventually need to be unblocked via a trade. The top two backcourt prospects --
D'Angelo Russell and
Emmanuel Mudiay -- would be natural fits as well. But alas it's pick No. 9 we have to evaluate here. Winslow has the kind of offensive upside the Hornets need, though it's unlikely he'll be around when Charlotte picks.
Mario Hezonja, SG, Croatia (No. 7): Hezonja has the makings of a pure scorer, and he can light it up from the outside. His length and athleticism give him the raw tools to work in Clifford's defensive system, even if he might have to be tough-loved into doing so. Yes, Hezonja has a reputation for putting his own offense at the top of his priority list, but in Charlotte that kind of mentality is a probably a good thing. The Hornets need a scorer with an alpha mentality.
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky (No. 8): Let's face it, if Jefferson decides to opt out, the Hornets' short-term objectives change immediately. Cauley-Stein's immense potential and defensive upside make him a worthy project as a successor, though it's far-fetched to think he would start right away. That task could fall to Biyombo, which sends any hopes of marked offensive improvement flying out the window.
It's a good draft if ...
What they must accomplish: The Hornets find a solution for 2-guard who is actually exciting in the big picture and can contribute right away.
Additional goals: At No. 39, Charlotte can fish for a bench scorer, a shooter, a backup center or even a more offensive-minded reserve behind Kidd-Gilchrist. Centers rated in that range include
Guillermo Hernangomez,
Moussa Diagne and
Nikola Milutinov.