Roster Reload: Jefferson key for Hornets
2014-15 record: 33-49
Pythagorean record: 32-50
Offensive rating: 97.6 (28th)
Defensive rating: 101.0 (9th)
Under Contract for 2015-16
Player Salary RPM WARP
Kemba Walker $12,000,000 -0.7 6.3
Marvin Williams $7,000,000 0.5 3.4
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $6,331,404 2.7 1.4
Cody Zeller $4,204,200 4.3 1.2
Brian Roberts $2,854,940 -3.1 0.5
Noah Vonleh $2,637,720 -2.3 0.2
P.J. Hairston $1,201,440 -3.8 0.1
Troy Daniels $947,276 -4.4 -0.2
Lance Stephenson $9,000,000 -5.0 -2.5
Possible Free Agents
Player Type RPM WARP
Al Jefferson Player option -1.0 4.6
Mo Williams Unrestricted -1.0 4.2
Bismack Biyombo Restricted -0.8 3.5
Jeff Taylor Restricted -4.8 -0.5
Gerald Henderson Jr. Player option 0.3 -0.5
Jason Maxiell Unrestricted -3.4 -0.6
Draft Picks
Own first-round pick (9th entering lottery)
Own second-round pick (39th)
Projected Cap Space
Maximum: $18.2 million
Minimum: $0
Likely: $0
What's Returning
The Hornets got ahead of the cap increase last fall, extending point guard
Kemba Walker for four years and $48 million. Soon, they'll face similar extension talks with small forward
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2012 draft. Kidd-Gilchrist was more of an offensive threat after revamping his shooting form, but his true value lies on defense, where Charlotte allowed 7.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court, per
NBA.com/Stats. The next step for Kidd-Gilchrist will be staying healthy; he's missed 47 games over the past two seasons.
Besides Kidd-Gilchrist, ESPN's real plus-minus is also fond of
Cody Zeller, the Hornets' 2013 lottery pick. Charlotte was 7.6 points better per 100 possessions with Zeller on the court. The development of Zeller and 2014 lottery pick
Noah Vonleh, who showed promise in limited action as a rookie, could make
Marvin Williams expendable. Williams and guard
Lance Stephenson, the Hornets' marquee additions in free agency last summer, were both relegated to reserve roles due to ineffective play.
Free Agents
Center
Al Jefferson faces an interesting decision this summer. After Jefferson's first season in Charlotte resulted in a spot on the All-NBA Third Team, it looked inevitable that he'd opt out of the final year of his contract. Coming off a season in which he missed 17 games and was limited by injuries while on the court, Jefferson may be hard-pressed to surpass the $13.5 million he would make by opting in. Starting shooting guard
Gerald Henderson also faces a decision on his $6 million option.
Jefferson's backup,
Bismack Biyombo, could be a restricted free agent if the Hornets opt to make a $5.2 million qualifying offer to him. While Biyombo still struggles offensively due to poor hands and footwork,
he's developed into a quality rim protector.
Mo Williams, acquired before the trade deadline to supply needed perimeter punch, will be an unrestricted free agent.
Biggest Need: 3-Point Shooting
Charlotte ranked 26th in the NBA in 3-pointers, and no team shot a worse percentage from beyond the arc than the Hornets' 31.8 percent mark, putting them last in the league in 3-Point Index. The wings were particularly problematic. Kidd-Gilchrist did not make a single 3-pointer all season, Stephenson posted the lowest accuracy ever for a player with at least 100 attempts (17.1 percent) and Henderson made less than half a 3-pointer per game.
That left Charlotte's point guards and stretch-4 Marvin Williams (a team-high 95 3s) as the sources of perimeter punch. Internal development by rookie P.J. Hairston could give the Hornets more shooting, though he shot just 30.1 percent as a rookie, attempting a 3 nearly every four minutes he was on the court.
Biggest Question: Is Jefferson worth a long-term investment?
Credit the Hornets for a good bet on Jefferson in free agency two years ago. Steve Clifford's defensive scheme minimized Jefferson's limitations at that end of the floor, and Jefferson provided needed scoring punch to a team sorely in need of offense. In his second season, however, Charlotte was slightly better with Jefferson on the bench. He's also 30 now, and if Jefferson opts out and another team comes in with a multiyear offer, it may be difficult for the Hornets to justify spending that much on a player in the decline phase of his career.
Ideal Offseason
Charlotte finds a team willing to take a chance on rehabilitating Stephenson in the last guaranteed season of his three-year contract, giving the Hornets enough cap room to re-sign Jefferson and add a floor-spacing wing like DeMarre Carroll of the Atlanta Hawks in free agency. Charlotte's lottery pick contributes immediately and Vonleh is among the league's most improved players, giving the Hornets enviable depth.
but my only question is would AD be a restricted free agent?
