Just a day after confirming the assassination of the USS Cole bomber in Yemen, Trump tried to score a second foreign policy success in yet another “Global South” nation, this time the Central African state of Gabon. The news just broke that some members of the country’s armed forces attempted to stage a coup against President Ali Bongo, who’s been recovering in Morocco over the last few months after suffering a stroke back in October, though the government claims that most of the conspirators have been arrested and that the “situation is under control”. Even though it appears as though the state succeeded in thwarting this plot, the US is still poised to geopolitical profit from it by manipulating the outcome to its AFRICOM favor.
Background Basics About Gabon
Bongo narrowly won reelection by less than 6,000 votes, which was used by the opposition as their excuse to torch their parliament in the historically peaceful country and bring it to the brink of Hybrid War chaos. The author wrote about the developing crisis at the time in his piece about “What’s Going On With The Hybrid War On Gabon”, in which some important domestic and foreign policy basics about the country were also described. Gabon had been ruled by the Bongo family since the President’s father took power in 1967, or in other words, 7 years after its independence. It had previously been regarded as one of France’s most prized neo-colonial “possessions” in the continent and was known to be very rich in natural resources, which is why it was an OPEC member from 1975-1995 before returning again in 2016, one year after it interestingly joined the Saudis’ “anti-terrorist coalition”.
It might sound strange to many that a majority-Christian nation on the Atlantic Coast of sub-Saharan Central Africa would join this Mideast-based military organization, but one of the reasons might be because Bongo is a member of Gabon’s Muslim minority and that he might have fallen sway to the Saudis’ “personal diplomacy” in wooing his country over to their side. Another complementary explanation could also simply be that Gabon had begun “rebalancing” its foreign policy during that time too, having transitioned from being a French neo-colonial “possession” to a more sovereignty-minded state following its post-Old Cold War partnership with China, though prudently understanding the need for a third strategic partner in order to maintain the best possible “balance” between Africa’s two most important non-regional countries during the opening stages of the New Cold War.
Apart from its energy, fishery, and forestry resources, Gabon is also very important for geostrategic reasons, too. As the author wrote in his previously mentioned piece when describing why France retains nearly 1,000 troops in this tiny country, “Paris is able to keep troops on standby for snap-response deployment to Central African hotspots such as the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Additionally, because of its location, Gabon provides France with a midway location between the two rising African powers of Nigeria and Angola, a position which Paris could leverage to maximum effect if need be.” Presciently, it was for the “official” purpose of responding to “violent demonstrations” that might break out in the nearby Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (which is the world’s largest producer of cobalt) after its latest elections that Trump deployed 80 US troops there last week.
The Purpose Of The American Deployment
In hindsight, his signaling about these soldiers being in the Central African nation to supposedly respond to “violent demonstrations” in the DRC might have been nothing more than a ruse to cover up their role in trying to deter the same in Gabon following what is more than likely the AFRICOM-assisted coup attempt that just took place in the country. The true state of the situation still remains unclear, though it’s beginning to look like the government did indeed arrest most of the conspirators and that everything is now under control. Nevertheless, the domestic strife that Gabon experienced two and a half years ago during its last elections could have also been in the process of simmering over once more following rumors about Bongo’s health, which might have prompted the armed forces to preemptively act in the first place seeing as how the organizers declared their sympathy with the opposition supporters who were killed during those riots.
The presence of US soldiers on the superficially plausible pretense of preparing to evacuate Americans from the DRC in the event that the nearby conflict-prone country re-erupts into violence following the impending announcement of its election results might just have been to signal the US’ tacit support to the plotters and deter Bongo loyalists from reacting, the latter purpose of which seems to have failed. The US didn’t want to get too directly involved because it wagered that it could leverage its position in the country irrespective of the coup’s outcome. As such, this event is of supreme significance for AFRICOM because the US now has a reason to further embed itself in this strategically positioned country along the energy-rich Gulf of Guinea, which is also surrounded by several weak but similarly strategic states presided over by long-serving elderly leaders and each of which have recently experienced different degrees of domestic unrest.
To put it another way, the US deployment might have been ‘bait’ to encourage the coup plotters to go ahead with their attempt, after which the US could take advantage of its outcome one way or another in order to get Gabon to function as AFRICOM’s long-desired base in the continent. On the one hand, had the coup succeeded, then the US could have partnered with the “pariah” government that would have naturally been shunned by the African Union and most other international actors, helping it stabilize the domestic situation and resume a sense of “normality” as soon as possible. On the other, despite the apparent success of the government forces in quelling this coup, this dramatic incident might have shown the state that its domestic political tensions are still simmering and now affecting part of its “deep state” apparatus, thus necessitating the need for another security partner such as the US to maintain stability in case something like this happens again.
Either way, the US is poised to profit from what happened in order to pursue its regional agenda.
Here’s What Gabon Has Going For It
In The Middle Of All The Action:
Like it was mentioned earlier in pertinence to the author’s previously cited piece on Gabon, the country is in very close proximity to rising African Great Powers Nigeria and Angola, as well as the mineral-rich DRC. Furthermore, it’s also just a short distance away from the Central African Republic (CAR), which has taken on more importance over the past 12 months since Russia’s UNSC-approved “mercenary” intervention there, which forms the core component of Moscow’s “balancing” strategy in Africa. Given that France has all but lost CAR as a neo-imperial colony and could very well be in the process of losing Gabon too following the coup, it can be said that the “Scramble for Africa” that the author predicted would intensify this year is leading to profound geopolitical changes in the Central African region whereby the former extra-regional hegemon of France is being squeezed out by Russia, the US, and China.
Surrounded By Aging Leaders:
Another crucial point to keep in mind is that the surrounding countries of Cameroon, the Republic of the Congo (ROC), and Equatorial Guinea are led by aging leaders who have recently come under different forms of regime change pressure. The first-mentioned is led by Paul Biya (who has been in office for 36 consecutive years) and is unofficially in a state of civil war between the central government and the Anglophone region astride part of the Nigerian border, the second is led by Denis Nguesso (who has been in office for 34 non-consecutive years – 13 years and 21 years, with a 5-year interim break) and only recently reconsolidated peace in the restive southern Pool region outside the capital, while the last-mentioned is led by Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo (who has been in office for 39 years) and recently thwarted a mercenary-led coup attempt last year.
Hybrid War Staging Ground:
In terms of regional Hybrid War dynamics, Gabon is therefore the perfect place for the US to encourage and guide regime change movements all throughout Central Africa, ultimately carving out an exclusive “sphere of influence” for itself in the eastern Gulf of Guinea from which to exert further influence into the West, Central, and Southern African countries of Nigeria, DRC, and Angola if it’s successful in turning the country into AFRICOM’s base of operations on the continent. Should that happen, then the newly imposed authorities will probably justify this move on the basis of “balancing” even though it’ll obviously be pivoting towards the US and away from France, China, and Saudi Arabia. AFRICOM doesn’t even have to be formally invited into the country either for this to happen, the US just needs to keep its proverbial ‘foot in the door’ and the rest might ‘naturally’ follow.
The Gabonese coup attempt caught a lot of observers off guard, but in hindsight, the “writing was on the wall” the whole time and two important signals were sent beforehand that could have tipped people off about it. Bongo’s New Year’s address to the people, recorded from Morocco where he’s currently recovering from his October stroke, showed that he’s still somewhat physically incapacitated and unable to rule the country following his controversial razor-thin reelection in 2016 that represented almost a full half-century of dynastic rule by his family. The dispatch of 80 US troops there late last week on the pretense of preparing to respond to post-election violence in the nearby DRC was clearly a ruse because Gabon doesn’t even border the country in question, with it now looking that those soldiers’ very presence was designed to encourage the plotters and deter the state from reacting.
Although the latest reports suggest that the government has reestablished full control over the situation, the coup attempt in and of itself is still a success for American foreign policy irrespective of its outcome because the US is now poised to manipulate its result in order to advance its own interests. A “revolutionary government” would have been internationally shunned and fully dependent on the US, while the recovering state might see the US as an important security partner that plays a crucial role in its “balancing” strategy. In both cases, the deepening US-Gabonese relationship would amount more to a pivot than an evolution of the Central African state’s “balancing” act, as an embedding of the US’ military forces in the country will inevitably have regional repercussions.
While a comparatively prosperous and resource-rich country of approximately two million people is a strategic prize in and of itself for any Great Power to “capture” in the New Cold War’s “Scramble for Africa”, Gabon’s deeper significance lays in its geopolitical position in between the rising African Great Powers of Nigeria and Angola, its proximity to the conflict-prone DRC and CAR (where the US’ Chinese and Russian rivals are the predominant patrons of those states, respectively), and its location in the middle of three weaker countries under the leadership of aging presidents who have experienced varying degrees of domestic unrest lately. It’s too early to say whether the Gabonese coup attempt will be a game-changer or not, but it’s obvious that American strategists intend for it to be for the aforementioned reasons, which if successful in full or even part would signify the return of Africa to the US’ international focus.
On November 30 the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) reported that airstrikes were launched on al-Shabaab positions in Lebede killing nine people. (Reuters, Dec. 2)
Although Washington routinely claims these bombing operations only target so-called “terrorists” there is no way of verifying who is actually struck on the ground. Other damage such as the deaths of civilians and the dislocation of people in small towns and rural areas are never acknowledged by the military.
Official statements from AFRICOM indicate that there are approximately 500 soldiers stationed in Somalia. The actual numbers have increased since the ascendancy of the administration of President Donald Trump during 2017 as a part of his purported foreign policy aims of battling armed Islamist groups such as al-Shabaab.
Other AFRICOM reports suggest there have been 37 bombing operations inside this oil-rich Horn of Africa state over the course of 2018. Successive U.S. administrations have supported the federalized governance system which was installed under the tenure of former President George W. Bush, Jr., who founded AFRICOM in early 2008.
Somalia conflict map
Just one week prior to the November 30 attacks, the U.S. announced several bombing missions in Harardere in Galmudug state where over 40 people were killed. The November 19-21 airstrikes were said to have hit an al-Shabaab training camp along with a weapons cache.
During early December a ground offensive was launched by the Western-trained Somali National Army (SNA) commandos against areas controlled by al-Shabaab around the farming village of Awdhegle in the Lower Shabelle region. The raids were reported by Somalian intelligence officials noting that the attacks received support from AFRICOM forces along with units from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which still has thousands of U.S. and United Nations-backed troops occupying the country. (Association Press, Dec. 5)
Somalian governmental sources which spoke on the condition of anonymity said the raids on al-Shabaab areas in the Lower Shabelle were designed to weaken the economic base of the organization. The U.S.-backed government in Mogadishu said that al-Shabaab taxes merchants and residents in the area in order to fund its activities.
In an apparent retaliatory attack on December 6, two generals in the SNA were killed when a roadside bomb exploded destroying their vehicle in the village of Dhanaane located on the coastal road linking the capital of Mogadishu to the port city of Marka. Al-Shabaab later claimed responsibility for the attack in an announcement over their broadcasting outlet Andalus Radio. (VOA, Dec. 7)
These developments are complicated by the emergence of two distinct factions within al-Shabaab over the last two years. One grouping is reportedly linked with al-Qaeda and a minority faction, which is allied to the Islamic State (ISIS). (Canadian Press, Dec. 7)
Several killings have been attributed to this rivalry within the ranks of al-Shabaab. Both groups are heavily dependent upon the forced taxation of businesses and residents inside the areas where they operate in the central and southern regions of Somalia.
Canadian Press and AP dispatches reported that the factionalism has increased substantially in recent months noting:
“The ISIS-affiliated group in Somalia, largely made up of al-Shabab defectors, first announced its presence in 2016 with attacks in the far north, far from Mogadishu and most al-Shabab strongholds. Though estimated at a few hundred fighters at most, their emergence in one of the world’s most unstable countries has been alarming enough that the U.S. military began targeting it with airstrikes a year ago.”
These same articles continued by saying:
“With no strong government to protect them, businessmen often say they have no choice but to pay in exchange for protection. Among the companies targeted by suspected ISIS-linked extremists is Somalia’s telecom giant, Hormuud, which intelligence officials say has lost up to 10 employees in attacks in recent weeks. Hormuud officials did not respond to requests for comment. Businesses worry that the rise of another extremist group seeking cash, as well as a new effort by Somalia’s central government to impose taxes, will bleed them dry.”
The Economic Interests of Imperialism in Somalia
Since the immediate years after the conclusion of World War II, makes the country important in the overall global economic system.
Beginning around 1948 the search for oil and gas resources began. In the early 1950s these efforts were conducted by Agip (Italian) and Sinclair Oil Corporation, then based in the U.S.
Later during the 1980s, when the country was in sharp decline due to its internal conflict and the failure of the U.S. to provide any genuine assistance economically, several multi-national petroleum firms won concessions for exploration. These corporations included Conoco-Phillips, Shell (Pectin), Amoco, Eni, Total, Exxon Mobil and Texaco. Eventually the resources were designated “force majeure” meaning that these companies reserved the right to come back for exploitation at a later time period when the political situation became more stable.
Somalia al-Shabaab fighters on transport truck
In recent years, the northern breakaway region of Puntland has seen drilling by the Canadian-based Africa Oil and Africa Energy corporations. This interest in oil and natural gas exploration are not confined to Somalia.
All along the East African coast from Somalia right down through Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, there have been monumental discoveries of offshore natural gas and oil resources in the region. Consequently, the imperialist states encouraged by the multinational corporations and international financial institutions are eager to stake claims on the potentialities of enormous profits related to energy resources exploitation.
The increasing presence of AFRICOM is clearly related to the ongoing quest for imperialist domination on the continent. With the People’s Republic of China (PRC) emerging as a major trading and development partner with African Union (AU) member-states, Washington and its allies in London and Paris are quite concerned over the possibility of losing out to the PRC as it relates to economic cooperation.
Impact of U.S. Foreign Policy in Somalia
As alluded to earlier in this report, Washington and its imperialist partners have been adamant about maintaining control over the Horn of Africa, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean basin regions. This concern has been manifested in the repeated interference and interventions into the internal affairs of Somalia.
With the recent death of former U.S. President George H.W. Bush, efforts were made by the corporate media acting on behalf of the ruling class to paint a picture of the 41sthead-of-state as a “statesman” and “consensus builder.” This could not be further from the actual truth of events during his one-term presidency from 1989 to 1993.
In addition to the unjustified Pentagon invasion of Panama in late 1989 and the massive bombing, ground invasion and imposition of draconian sanctions against Iraq in the first Gulf War, Bush also intervened in Somalia in December 1992 on the eve of his departure from the White House. Operation Restore Hope was ostensibly designed to provide relief for Somalian civilians on the brink of famine resulting from the collapse of the previous government of Mohamed Siad Barre in early 1991.
Nonetheless, the deployment of 12,000 U.S. Marines to Somalia by Bush was part and parcel of the desire to reassert the military prowess of the U.S. in the aftermath of its colossal defeats in Southeast Asia during the mid-1970s, Lebanon in 1983-84 and Southern Africa in the late 1980s, where the world’s leading imperialist state was forced to retreat after humiliating failures. The successor to Bush, President Bill Clinton, inherited the Somalian invasion where within a matter of months huge sections of the country rose in rebellion against the U.S. and U.N. occupations, leading to the deaths of thousands of Somalians and the loss of hundreds Pentagon and so-called peacekeeping soldiers during 1993-1994. The U.S. and the U.N were both forced to leave Somalia by 1994.
This did not sit well with Washington and some twelve years later the Pentagon began to bomb Somalia under the leadership of the-then President George W. Bush, Jr. By 2007, the U.S. had facilitated another invasion, this time utilizing the military forces of neighboring Ethiopia and later Kenya. AMISOM, an aggregation of troops from several regional states, was assembled, trained, armed and deployed as a mechanism to implement U.S. foreign policy in Somalia and the entire Horn of Africa. This same policy continued under President Barack Obama right through to the current administration of Trump who has altered the regulations guiding military involvement in Somalia to justify the deepening of the intervention utilizing commando units and airstrikes.
However, after decades of military involvement and political machinations the situation remains unstable. The Somalians only hope for sustainable peace and development lies within the national unity of its people absent of the tutelage of the U.S.