It looks mainly like you are lifting and doing very high intensity cardio for short bursts..... I honestly don't count stuff like that into my activity levels. Cutting or not I'm lifting so that's in the baseline
I've found the online calculators to be kind of useless. For me they are like 500kcal/day over.
Best bet would be to start tracking now with no changes to your diet... see where the scale goes.... then adjust accordingly. Even with that, adherence is tough. Trying to strike the balance of keeping it flexible for wifey but staying on target.... not easy
But you gotta have a target