The 2012 MLB Random Thoughts Thread
- Thread starter FloorGeneral
- Start date
SmoothOperator88
Your friendly neighborhood coli poster
The Atlanta Braves once again find themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt. Last year, the team's success was fueled mostly by a dominant pitching staff that ranked seventh in baseball in run prevention. The offense, however, was one of the worst in the game, ranking 22nd in run scoring.
This year, the Braves are again the seventh-best run prevention team in the league, but they have benefited from an offense that is currently ranked eighth in all of baseball.
One of the biggest reasons for this turnaround has been the resurgence of Jason Heyward. So far in 2012, the 23-year-old outfielder has posted a triple slash of .279/.353/.494. Compared to his meager .227/.319/.389 in 2011, the young slugger has improved his offensive performance by roughly 35 percent.
Heyward's 132 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) is on par with his performance during his breakout rookie season of 2010.
What accounts for the turnaround?
Simply put, a healthy shoulder and a new approach at the plate.
Heyward's rookie season (historically, the fifth best offensively for a 20-year-old) prompted many to assume that the Braves could pencil in superior production from their young outfielder for years to come. But his sophomore season was a disappointment, and many questioned whether 2010 was a reliable representation of Heyward's true abilities.
The main culprit appeared to be an altered swing driven primarily by a nagging shoulder injury. Certainly, hitters can experience a decline in performance after a standout rookie season for non-injury-related reasons. For one thing, teams have an entire year's worth of scouting reports against major league pitching to study, and they adjust their approach to hitters accordingly. Combine that with the natural regression players coming off of outstanding seasons can expect, and it wouldn't have been surprising to see Heyward be less successful at the plate.
But he wasn't just less successful last season. Heyward managed only a 98 wRC+, a 36 percent decline from his rookie season. Essentially, Heyward had become just an average hitter. But this decline wasn't simply due to the adjustments by the league. There were signs that Heyward's shoulder injury was limiting his ability to handle pitches well that he normally drove during his rookie season.
First, the outfielder's infield fly ball rate spiked from a moderate 8.4 percent to 21.8 percent -- the highest in the league in 2011 for any hitter with more than 400 plate appearances. Besides the fact that infield fly balls result in an out almost every time, the spike was an indicator that Heyward's shoulder problems were significantly impacting his ability to square up the ball.
Second, Heyward's power in 2011 was generated mostly on pitches thrown to the outer half of the plate. This represented a big change from 2010, when he made pitchers pay for throwing inside. The pattern was even more pronounced for fastballs.
Combine the spike in infield fly balls with the inability to drive inside pitches, and it becomes clear that Heyward's decline in performance wasn't just a case of the league adjusting to a young hitter.
This year, Heyward's shoulder is healthy, and he is once again one of the more dangerous hitters in the game, posting the eighth-best wRC+ among National League outfielders. And while his overall production is back to his 2010 level, the way Heyward is going about producing runs is substantially different.
As Dave Cameron pointed out in June, Heyward appears to have altered his plate approach. The biggest indication of this change is his batted ball distribution. In 2010, Heyward hit roughly two ground balls for every fly ball. In 2011, his ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) was 1.63. Through the end of June 2012, Heyward's GB/FB ratio was less than 1.00. That's a big change, and one more consistent with power hitters.
Above-average power hitters average a GB/FB ratio of 1.09. Below-average power hitters average 1.49. Heyward's newfound propensity for driving the ball in the air has subsequently led to a surge in his power, even compared to his rookie season (.216 ISO versus .179).
Heyward has also returned to form when it comes to what pitches he is able to drive. In 2012, Heyward has generated most of his power on balls on the inside half of the plate. Not only is Heyward driving these pitches better, but he's also swinging at them more often than he did in either 2011 or 2010. During his rookie season, Heyward offered at pitches on the inside part of the zone 43 percent of the time. In 2012, that number has jumped to 56 percent.
A healthy, maturing Heyward has proved that his breakout rookie season was no fluke. He's made adjustments that put him on track to develop into a consistent slugger, a rare commodity in the current environment. There's certainly room for improvement, but given that Heyward just turned 23 years old last month, he has time to make additional adjustments.
In the meantime, the Braves should be more than happy with the production they are getting from their young right fielder.
Bill Petti writes for FanGraphs.com
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
Yall gotta see this collison between Josh Harrison and Yadier Molina at home plate 
and Molina somehow hung on
and Molina somehow hung on
Walter H White
All Star
Wow Kemp just hurt himself like Griffey against the wall.
Walter H White
All Star
Kemp back up, looks good to go.
*Breathes a sigh of relief for fantasy team.
*Breathes a sigh of relief for fantasy team.
kinda almost feel guilty as a Giants fan really....Bonds was all that they had and we plundered them like europeans did africa
Those wounds will never heal. Bonds, Bonilla, Van Slyke, Drabek etc
Bonds was my Bucco
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
How in the hell did he hold onto the ball
FloorGeneral
I don't even know anymore...
TBS Postseason Commercial. The Boss
Last edited by a moderator:
FreedS[ohh]lave;1308212 said:Yall gotta see this collison between Josh Harrison and Yadier Molina at home plate
and Molina somehow hung on
Worst part is we got destroyed in that game so stopping that run ultimately didn't even matter.
That's my MVP though.
Captain Crunch
Veteran
That's my National Pastime
LandryFieldsDad
All Star
Joe mauer has cleared waivers..
Padres sold for 800 mill
Padres sold for 800 mill
