O-line fueling Dolphins' surge
Once-porous, distraction-causing unit now key to Miami's turnaround
Updated: December 17, 2013, 2:36 PM ET
By
Rivers McCown | Football Outsiders
Robert Mayer/USA TODAY SportsThe Dolphins have been keeping a cleaner pocket for Ryan Tannehill.
At 8-6, tied with the
Baltimore Ravens for the last AFC wild-card spot, the
Miami Dolphins have a chance to ascend to the postseason for the first time since 2008. While they've been helped by the general listlessness of the AFC, in so much as no team has really staked a claim to that last wild-card berth, the Dolphins deserve credit for successfully navigating their way out of the bullying and hazing quagmire that left them without their starting left tackle and left guard.
Making lemonade out of the
Richie Incognito-
Jonathan Martin mess wasn't simple, but a trade and a key undrafted free agent have helped the Dolphins stabilize their offensive line. From Week 1 to Week 8, the Dolphins had just one game with a positive offensive DVOA. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric,
explained here.) Since then, they've been above average in five of their last seven games, and their improved line is helping to fuel that surge.
Putting aside the human side of the story for a moment to focus on the field, Martin was playing poorly at left tackle prior to leaving the team. He'd allowed 6.5 sacks through the first seven weeks in
J.J. Cooper's sack charting project. The idea to move Martin to left tackle to replace
Jake Long was one with a considerable amount of risk given that Martin wasn't exactly steady in pass protection last season.
Dallas Thomas, who was drafted in the third round as a potential long-term fix at tackle, has also not performed up to that draft billing so far. That left the Dolphins surrendering a potential pick for
Bryant McKinnie, who had looked downright lackadaisical as part of a Ravens offensive line that has not been much help for RBs
Ray Rice and
Bernard Pierce this season. But McKinnie's length has been a boon in pass protection, and he's been an improvement on Martin, even if that improvement is almost all by default.
To replace Incognito, the Dolphins first turned to converted tackle
Nate Garner, who had some injury issues and little experience inside. However, when
Mike Pouncey dealt with a grave bout of food poisoning, they had to plug in undrafted rookie center
Sam Brenner in his stead. Turns out, Brenner can actually play a little bit. In Week 14, he took the majority of the snaps over Garner for the first time. On the right side,
Tyson Clabo overcame a very cold start -- he had more sacks attributed to him than any other player over the first half of the season, according to Cooper -- to play much better over the past few weeks. The Miami Herald
reported that he had allowed just three sacks in the six games prior to Week 15.
Thus, with his smooth pickup of McKinnie and the luck (and opportunity) of finding an undrafted lineman that could hold his own, general manager Jeff Ireland turned a comedy of bad process into decent results. Incognito's actions have likely left a stain on Ireland that'll be hard for him to erase, but there's something to be said for fixing a poor unit in the middle of the season. Especially since it kept his franchise quarterback upright.
Stabilizing Fins
After a ragged start to the season and much controversy, Miami's O-line has been much improved. Per ESPN's
Pass Protection metric, QB Ryan Tannehill has been feeling less pressure as the season's continued.
Week Opponent Protection %
1 CLE 44%
2 IND 55%
3 ATL 32%
4 NO 35%
5 BAL 38%
7 BUF 38%
8 NE 51%
9 CIN 52%
10 TB 59%
11 SD 44%
12 CAR 52%
13 NYJ 51%
14 PIT 61%
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Ryan Tannehill's sack count was a bit inflated because of the circumstances -- we have the Dolphins with the 29th-ranked adjusted sack rate
through Week 14, because he dropped back to pass pretty regularly. But that pressure is being alleviated. Per ESPN Stats and Info's metrics, eight of the nine best games Miami has had in pass protection have come in the last eight weeks, with its best effort of the season coming against the Steelers in Week 14.
The run offense, too, has been better of late. In their first seven games, the Dolphins had a rushing DVOA above 2.8 percent once. Since then, they've had four above-average games and three games with a rushing DVOA above 15.5 percent. They even managed an above-average DVOA against the Jets -- far and away the leaders in rush defense DVOA -- in Week 13. While they haven't necessarily been bad in this area, the Miami run attack had been shut down by most of the better run defenses they'd played before this -- Baltimore, Carolina and Tampa Bay all feasted on the Dolphins. Perhaps their performance against the Jets is a sign that more improvement is yet to come.
Miami will need a Baltimore stumble to make the playoffs -- a head-to-head win gave the Ravens the tiebreaker against Miami -- but the Dolphins should be in good position to win their last two games against Buffalo and the Jets (while Baltimore faces New England and Cincinnati). The Jets will probably be easier for the Dolphins than the Bills, because Miami's biggest weakness all season has been a surprisingly porous run defense that is ranked 29th in defensive DVOA (through Week 14). The Bills have had inconsistent success in the ground game because
EJ Manuel and
C.J. Spiller have been so oft-injured, but they just ran for 198 yards against the Jaguars last week. And if there's a counterpoint to Ireland's solid in-season patch job on the O-line, it's his offseason mistake in moving on from
Karlos Dansby and
Kevin Burnett -- who have both had solid seasons in Arizona and Oakland, respectively -- to
Dannell Ellerbe and
Philip Wheeler.
But in this year's AFC, teams don't need to be flawless to make the playoffs. And Ireland has salvaged the line play to the point where Miami just might have the fewest flaws of any team left in the chase.