Originally Posted by gundam zeta
i see a big structural change happening..
Manufacturing, high paid grocery jobs, 15 an hour telephone service jobs , and many high paying municipal jobs will disapear, and the days of a good high wage out-of-high-school job are over.
Healthcare wages will continue upwards on a linear direction and will continue to create more jobs.
The housing bubble will pop, but the effects of how hard it hits will differ from region to region. I definately see a big brown bear on the horizon, for certian areas. One being the homeland of so g1ad and myself- california's central valley. Stockton, tracy, modesto, peterson, elk grove, sacramento and fresno<---these places have seen a huge expansion in their economies driven mostly by housing and retail industries where such growth spikes have relied almost soley on the bay area's migrants who are fleeing the bay area's vastly higer price level. For example, I have seen Stockton grow more in the last 5 years than I have in the past 22 years that I had lived there. The situation is the same for every small city across the San jauquin Valley.
These BOOM-towns, and others like them across the nation are highly at risk for hard hitting regional recessions. For a list of reasons.
1) Stockton, tracy etc. have relied almost soley on two industries that are closely related to each other-- retial and housing. If housing prices were to go flat or decline, people would definately be more inclined to save more money because as of right now, many people see their house as their savings. If expectations of further apreciation were to shake, we definately see more saving. More saving = less spending on consumption= less jobs needed for the retail industry. In areas like the Central Valley and the Southern united states where small towns have boomed because of housing boom and the services needed to accommodate the new arivals, a hit in housing industry might be something that could be hard to recover from. The job loss in both the housing industry and the retial industry might turn boom-towns into ghost-towns.
2) As I said before, these boom areas have recieved added growth because of the retial industry which is in many ways complementary to the housing industry. It might not make perception happy, but retial industry has recently created more jobs in the united states than any other industry period. Protectionists policies and probably the coming correction of the Current account deficit will hit the retial industy something harsh. Protecting underwear manufacturers in north carolina or anyone else in any other uncompetive domestic industry WILL effect the price of final goods. There's no debating that. Rising prices mean consumers buy less, which will effect employment. Furthermore, the coming Current acount deficit correction, if it does happen, might in send the dollar down nearly 30%. Such a devaluation will make imports skyrocket, and with the retail industry making so much of its sales from imports, I don't think a retial relient town like Tracy could survive such a hit.
3) these housing Boom towns are populated by low income or fix income families and individuals. These families that are barely paying minimum payments on houses and scrapping away with low level retail jobs are going to have far less incentive to stay home owners with raising rates (FED), declining incomes (cooling retial market), rising price levels and more importantly lowered expectations of future home apreciation. The high number of low income home owners residing in these Boom-Towns may serve to amplify the effects of either the housing bust or a hit in the retial industry due to protectionist policies and/or Current account Corrections.