See you in October, Ozuna or later, 2023 Atlanta Braves season thread

[Remote]

Harris just won NL Rookie of the Year and had one of the greatest rookie seasons in ML history



And that’s just at the plate, he’s a Gold Glove level defender right now.

Wright had a breakout season last season and Vaughn showed promise when he got called up last season. No one’s putting too much hype in him, it’s a wait and see to see how he does as the everyday starting SS

No shade but do you really watch the Braves?

I watch games and I study projections and a lot of stat cast data.

 

[Remote]

To be fair, as pessimistic as I sound about Wright or Harris or Grissom, I do still think the Braves are the best NL East team.

I didn’t mean to suggest they are bums.

 

[AVXL]

I watch games and I study projections and a lot of stat cast data.

Ok great, so with the games you’re watching and data you’re seeing, how can you downplay Harris and Wright so easily? Make it make sense

 

[Remote]

Ok great, so with the games you’re watching and data you’re seeing, how can you downplay Harris and Wright so easily? Make it make sense

So, the thing is that a lot goes into the data analysis and honestly, I'm not sure I can explain everything. The simplest way would be to look at projections that are compiled by people way smarter than I am -- because they would know how to better assign importance and weight to some stats and less to others.

With Kyle Wright, it's probably a bit more obvious. Wright had a ton of issues with control up until last season where he basically cut his walk rate in half. Maybe he really is just feeling good and putting things together. But conservatively speaking, models aren't projecting him to match his K rate from last year, or his Walk rate. Though, they still should be good. His FIP this year looks like it'll be a half-run higher this year. So that's why I'm not sure about reaching 21 wins again.

When it comes to Harris, the biggest thing is that he just doesn't walk enough. So he is going to be a bit of a victim to how volatile hitting can be in the majors. He's a pretty good power threat so that's what will make him valuable. I don't see him maintaning a .360 BABIP like he did last season...but to be fair, some hitters can do that across multiple years.

 

[daemonova]

So, the thing is that a lot goes into the data analysis and honestly, I'm not sure I can explain everything. The simplest way would be to look at projections that are compiled by people way smarter than I am -- because they would know how to better assign importance and weight to some stats and less to others.

With Kyle Wright, it's probably a bit more obvious. Wright had a ton of issues with control up until last season where he basically cut his walk rate in half. Maybe he really is just feeling good and putting things together. But conservatively speaking, models aren't projecting him to match his K rate from last year, or his Walk rate. Though, they still should be good. His FIP this year looks like it'll be a half-run higher this year. So that's why I'm not sure about reaching 21 wins again.

When it comes to Harris, the biggest thing is that he just doesn't walk enough. So he is going to be a bit of a victim to how volatile hitting can be in the majors. He's a pretty good power threat so that's what will make him valuable. I don't see him maintaning a .360 BABIP like he did last season...but to be fair, some hitters can do that across multiple years.

To still hit
300 with everybody slumping and barely walking is a good sign

 

[daemonova]

 

[AVXL]

So, the thing is that a lot goes into the data analysis and honestly, I'm not sure I can explain everything. The simplest way would be to look at projections that are compiled by people way smarter than I am -- because they would know how to better assign importance and weight to some stats and less to others.

With Kyle Wright, it's probably a bit more obvious. Wright had a ton of issues with control up until last season where he basically cut his walk rate in half. Maybe he really is just feeling good and putting things together. But conservatively speaking, models aren't projecting him to match his K rate from last year, or his Walk rate. Though, they still should be good. His FIP this year looks like it'll be a half-run higher this year. So that's why I'm not sure about reaching 21 wins again.

When it comes to Harris, the biggest thing is that he just doesn't walk enough. So he is going to be a bit of a victim to how volatile hitting can be in the majors. He's a pretty good power threat so that's what will make him valuable. I don't see him maintaning a .360 BABIP like he did last season...but to be fair, some hitters can do that across multiple years.

I don’t think it’s a reach that he gets there though. Team is stacked, he’ll probably get anywhere from 30-35 starts assuming he’s healthy (he is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery but he’s throwing in camp). I’m not as concerned about the wins as I am the command and consistency, but I think he found something in the ‘21 WS that he’s carried over to today

With Harris, as I posted earlier, he objectively had one of the GOAT rookie seasons of all time and remember he started the yr in Mississippi.

To your point about walking and plate discipline:

From Michael Cunningham at the AJC:

Also, the batted-ball profile that Harris produced in 2022 usually doesn’t result in so many hits. His percentage of ground balls (57%) was much higher than the MLB average (42.9%). Line drives and fly balls go for hits much more often than ground balls and are the reliable ways of generating extra-base hits.

If Harris pounds pitches into the ground at a high rate again in 2023, then it’s likely that fewer of them will find holes. But even if there’s regression there, I believe Harris can offset it with better plate discipline and more success against lefties. Harris had one of the worst “chase rates” (swings at pitches outside of the zone) and hit .238 with a .284 OBP in 135 plate appearances versus left-handers.

With no shifts, faster game, bigger bases and a season under his belt I think he’ll improve on his numbers from last yr across the board: .290 with a .342 on-base percentage and 19 home runs over 441 plate appearances. He stole 20 bases in 21 attempts

 

[King Karim]

LFG!!

 

[Born2BKing]

Division is stacked. Mets and Phillies will both be good again this year. Braves could finish first or third and still be good enough to win it again

With that said the Braves are stacked. You can’t find a better hitting lineup in the game

Things I want to see in Spring Training:

-Vaughn Grissom emerge as the starting SS. We all know it’s his job but I want to see him when the job
-Who will be the fifth starter? It’s Fried, Strider, Wright, Morton set in stone 1-4. It’ll be between Ian, Bryce & Soroka, if you believe Soroka will be a ML starting pitcher again
-Ozuna round back into form. I kinda feel like this is his last shot. He’ll DH this season and Chipper is back as a hitting coach so hopefully he takes advantage

Is Chipper gonna be the full-time hitting coach or that consulting thing he does in Spring Training only mainly?

 

[Motife43]

Is Chipper gonna be the full-time hitting coach or that consulting thing he does in Spring Training only mainly?

He'll be a consultant. MLB dropped its vaccine mandate so he's able to work with the team again. He'll be at most home games and some road trips

 

[daemonova]

Spoiler: Braves win 7-0 over Blue Jays, don't click if you want to see pictures of yt ppl

 

[Professor K.]

Spoiler: Braves win 7-0 over Blue Jays, don't click if you want to see pictures of yt ppl

Hope for breh sake that baby just need some sun

 

[VegetasHairline]

 

[Bonefan32]

OutKast bobblehead

 

[Born2BKing]

OutKast bobblehead

Could have done a better job on Big Boi's face.