Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[Orbital-Fetus]

"we're only going to focus on the territories that we already occupy", then that frees up a lot of their war effort and requires a lot less effort.

Practically speaking how would that look any different than what is happening now? The front line would still look exactly the same. Absolutely no forces would be "freed up" by simply holding what they have. Freed up to do what exactly? Whether or not Russia is pushing further West or not doesn't matter. So long as they occupy Ukrainian soil they will have bombs dropping on them.

If the US no longer leads that effort, then other nations would undoubtedly pull back too.

I disagree. Russia invading Ukraine was a watershed moment. Sweden is no longer neutral and joining NATO. That alone should tell you something. If the US blinked out of existence today it would suck for NATO but Western Europe now sees Russia and Putin for what they truly are. There is no going back.

 

[987654321]

Russia is stretched thin because they are trying to take over all of Ukraine. If they scale back their efforts and say "we're only going to focus on the territories that we already occupy", then that frees up a lot of their war effort and requires a lot less effort.

Russia was only been able to occupy Crimea because both countries were relatively balanced, strength wise. The buffer zone they’ve been working on since 2014 is being chewed up.

There’s no negotiation for them because they can’t stop Ukraine’s momentum, they don’t have any other avenue of escalation, and they will not use nuke. They have a month and a half, at best, before there’s a couple of big bubbles/bulges in their lines. They can apply themselves to slowing down progress in the east or the south, not both.

Ukraine has no choice but to grind it out in both directions because Russia made the poor decision to never honor agreements or truces. If they had there would be a chance of talks, but they haven’t. Now they’ve put Ukraine in a policy corner of “win or die” (because let’s face it, if they were dumb enough to agree to a truce or giving up land, they’d just get attacked again.) and Ukraine has called Russia’s bluff in order to survive.

Russia has shown anybody watching that it’s better to fight and die than live under their occupation. They’ve also shown that they’re very much detestable to anyone willing to stand up to them and keep fighting.

There is no possibility negotiating. And Russia can’t hold Crimea once it’s in the range of conventional artillery. If they try they’re just going to be trapped until it turns into a wasteland.

 

[987654321]

I hear what you're saying, but correct me if I'm wrong... This gets more into the logistical/political side of things, but isn't Ukraine receiving resources from NATO nations?

My point being, here's something that Trump accurately said: The US accounts for a large part of the NATO budget.

If he gets back in office and either limits US participation or even completely withdraws the US entirely from NATO, that would be a very different looking NATO. And a lot of nations would be forced to tighten their bootstraps.

We should never get it confused: the US is responsible for much of Ukraine's defense. Yes, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and the UK are contributing, but they ain't contributing like we are. They can't contribute like we do even if they wanted to.

Nations are contributing to Ukraine because the US is leading the effort. If the US no longer leads that effort, then other nations would undoubtedly pull back too.

We do account for big part of it but we aren’t the lynchpin, if that makes sense. The invasion has stopped a lot of the petty arguing and over reliance on us, alone.

Many of the NATO countries contributing have historically been under Russia’s thumb and, like us, spent decades overcompensating to be on par in case of a fight. They’ve ramped up and made logistical agreements within their own and Ukraine’s borders.

To be honest we really depend on them, because we couldn’t get any of our equipment to Ukraine without the surrounding countries caring.

If you get a chance, really look into those countries you mentioned. They’re incredibly dangerous, militarily, because they’ve individually built themselves to fight destroy the Russian myth we’d all come to believe before they exposed themselves.

They UK, Germany, Turkey, Romania, etc. all took turns (logistically) the past year saying the quiet part out loud: If the US pulled out today they’re all willing to step up and produce. Poland and Romania alone can pick up our slack if need be.

 

[[Something Cool]]

I would agree with this if we didn't see Russia successfully occupy Crimea.

Russia is stretched thin because they are trying to take over all of Ukraine. If they scale back their efforts and say "we're only going to focus on the territories that we already occupy", then that frees up a lot of their war effort and requires a lot less effort.

Right, but that was subject to them signing the Minsk agreements in 2014 to cease hostilities. I can’t see Ukraine wanting to sign anything like that with the same government again this time, plus Russia internally looks like a complete shyt show. There is no guarantee of stability there. Why make a deal with a government that may just as easily implode on itself if you keep the fight up? It’s not like they haven’t done it before.

 

[Neo. The Only. The One.]

Right, but that was subject to them signing the Minsk agreements in 2014 to cease hostilities. I can’t see Ukraine wanting to sign anything like that with the same government again this time, plus Russia internally looks like a complete shyt show. There is no guarantee of stability there. Why make a deal with a government that may just as easily implode on itself if you keep the fight up? It’s not like they haven’t done it before.

You and @987654321 make good points. Do you think an agreement holds in the case of a new government in Russia? Putin himself accidentally falls out of a window and then Ukraine is dealing with a new government: Does Ukraine's willingness to negotiate change?

I get what yall are saying, but Ukraine is war torn and ravaged with millions of civilians dead and more dying each day. I think they would have more of a willingness to negotiate than you might think.

I still remember last year when Russia signaled talks and Ukraine was willing to sit at the table. The only reason Ukraine stopped the talks was because they said Russia was using peace talks as a regrouping strategy. They were stalling.

If a new incoming government was serious about ending the war, I believe Ukraine would be willing to sit down. And I also believe they would be willing to compromise.

We keep talking about Russia's inability to sustain this conflict, but Ukraine can't sustain it indefinitely either, even with NATO weapons.

 

[987654321]

You and @987654321 make good points. Do you think an agreement holds in the case of a new government in Russia? Putin himself accidentally falls out of a window and then Ukraine is dealing with a new government: Does Ukraine's willingness to negotiate change?

I get what yall are saying, but Ukraine is war torn and ravaged with millions of civilians dead and more dying each day. I think they would have more of a willingness to negotiate than you might think.

I still remember last year when Russia signaled talks and Ukraine was willing to sit at the table. The only reason Ukraine stopped the talks was because they said Russia was using peace talks as a regrouping strategy. They were stalling.

If a new incoming government was serious about ending the war, I believe Ukraine would be willing to sit down. And I also believe they would be willing to compromise.

We keep talking about Russia's inability to sustain this conflict, but Ukraine can't sustain it indefinitely either, even with NATO weapons.

It would definitely be new ground. We used to feel that Navalny would be a welcome change in Russia after his public opposition of Putin. Even with his extreme tilt to the left (as far as Russians go), he still supported Russia’s actions in Ukraine lol.

I honestly feel that the only thing that will change Russia is its leadership’s greed either finding something more fruitful and peaceful to keep it minding its business, or its leasership’s extreme greed destroying itself.

Years of oligarch propaganda and degrading of its communication and education systems have pretty much turned Russia into an extremely scummy place.

 

[Neo. The Only. The One.]

It would definitely be new ground. We used to feel that Navalny would be a welcome change in Russia after his public opposition of Putin. Even with his extreme tilt to the left (as far as Russians go), he still supported Russia’s actions in Ukraine lol.

I honestly feel that the only thing that will change Russia is its leadership’s greed either finding something more fruitful and peaceful to keep it minding its business, or its leasership’s extreme greed destroying itself.

Years of oligarch propaganda and degrading of its communication and education systems have pretty much turned Russia into an extremely scummy place.

Well Navalny supporting Russia's invasion makes sense. Even in the US, it took 3 presidents to end Bush's war in Afghanistan. Even if another government comes into power, Russian invasion of Ukraine is still an official move made by The Russian Federation and there has to be some form of continuity between governments.

Which is why I said that even if a new government came to power, they would still want something from Ukraine in exchange for them pulling out. I believe that something that they would want is territory. How much? I don't know. But I still feel that unless something drastic happens, Ukraine borders after this war will not be as they were pre-war.

 

[[Something Cool]]

You and @987654321 make good points. Do you think an agreement holds in the case of a new government in Russia? Putin himself accidentally falls out of a window and then Ukraine is dealing with a new government: Does Ukraine's willingness to negotiate change?

I get what yall are saying, but Ukraine is war torn and ravaged with millions of civilians dead and more dying each day. I think they would have more of a willingness to negotiate than you might think.

I still remember last year when Russia signaled talks and Ukraine was willing to sit at the table. The only reason Ukraine stopped the talks was because they said Russia was using peace talks as a regrouping strategy. They were stalling.

If a new incoming government was serious about ending the war, I believe Ukraine would be willing to sit down. And I also believe they would be willing to compromise.

We keep talking about Russia's inability to sustain this conflict, but Ukraine can't sustain it indefinitely either, even with NATO weapons.

Oh yeah, that’s the only reasonable way out of this zero sum situation they are in right now. Putin can’t lose or it’s the end of him, but there isn’t really anything to win for him either. He is currently in a position where can’t win but he also can’t lose, so he has no choice but to keep going. That’s why he and his government have to go.

I said earlier “Russians” have a way out of this though. If the Kremlin is gone a new regime has the possibility to negotiate in good faith and potentially lift sanctions so it can negotiate better prices for its energy market. That will take time but with its current regime there is no hope. Its not like western countries don’t want its energy supplies.

Ukraine will want its reparations though, that’s for another day. Also China will want a say in the matter. It won’t be clean, but Russia’s status quo isn’t it. I mean you have neutral countries picking sides.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

Which is why I said that even if a new government came to power, they would still want something from Ukraine in exchange for them pulling out. I believe that something that they would want is territory. How much? I don't know. But I still feel that unless something drastic happens, Ukraine borders after this war will not be as they were pre-war.

My guy, you ain't seeing the big picture. Ending Russia as we know it is the goal of this in the long term. All of this talk about "continuity of governments" is rubbish. Pure poppycock. Putin set into motion a series of events that are going to play out.

Putin will fall. And when that happens the Russian Federation is going to collapse in ugly and unpredictable ways. How the West manages this is the real question. It is written and unavoidable at this point.

Spoiler

Oh boy, and this is a gem..."they would still want something from Ukraine in exchange for them pulling out. I believe that something that they would want is territory."


Withdrawing from territory... in exchange for territory?

Sign off, breh. Your view on this is fubared.

 

[987654321]

Well Navalny supporting Russia's invasion makes sense. Even in the US, it took 3 presidents to end Bush's war in Afghanistan. Even if another government comes into power, Russian invasion of Ukraine is still an official move made by The Russian Federation and there has to be some form of continuity between governments.

Which is why I said that even if a new government came to power, they would still want something from Ukraine in exchange for them pulling out. I believe that something that they would want is territory. How much? I don't know. But I still feel that unless something drastic happens, Ukraine borders after this war will not be as they were pre-war.

I mean, they can want territory. Fortunately they have no realistic leverage to keep any territory. They would have been better off halting their initial push to Kiev and demanding talks. Now no one respects their words enough to fear them.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

I mean, they can want territory. Fortunately they have no realistic leverage to keep any territory. They would have been better off halting their initial push to Kiev and demanding talks. Now no one respects their words enough to fear them.

Even before WW2 ended it was well understood that the Soviet Union was the next on the chopping block in the eyes of the other Allies.
Before I say anything I would like to acknowledge that the USSR put in mad work prior to D-Day. Russia lost like 20 million people. It's fukking wild. There is a very good argument to be made that the USSR defeated the Nazis. They did that shyt dirty as fukk but at the end of the day you gatta for that.

Fast forward to 2014. NATO is in shambles but the foundation is still in place. The memory of countless Russian tanks rolling through Eastern Europe reverberates in the minds of the world. That fear is gone.

You said they would have been better off halting the initial push... They did. Don't you remember the 20 mile long traffic jam? Whether they planned it or not the result would have been the same.

 

[KING WILL]

After the war, can you imagine the billions upon billions of dollars that will be flowing to Ukraine?

It's gonna be the Marshall Plan all over again, so much money is gonna be floating around. I hope construction brehs are ready

Not sure if you are an investor, but Palantir has already been tasked to help with the reconstruction:

Palantir and Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine strike reconstruction partnership

Palantir Technologies Inc and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine have today announced a partnership that will help enable the company’s

www.businesswire.com

 

[987654321]

Even before WW2 ended it was well understood that the Soviet Union was the next on the chopping block in the eyes of the other Allies.
Before I say anything I would like to acknowledge that the USSR put in mad work prior to D-Day. Russia lost like 20 million people. It's fukking wild. There is a very good argument to be made that the USSR defeated the Nazis. They did that shyt dirty as fukk but at the end of the day you gatta for that.

Fast forward to 2014. NATO is in shambles but the foundation is still in place. The memory of countless Russian tanks rolling through Eastern Europe reverberates in the minds of the world. That fear is gone.

You said they would have been better off halting the initial push... They did. Don't you remember the 20 mile long traffic jam? Whether they planned it or not the result would have been the same.

I mean before they got to the point of getting their shyt pushed in lol. It’s funny that Russia was kind of the same position as far as needed equipment. They would have been clogging the concentration camp incinerators without the US lend-lease program.

 

[KING WILL]

Not sure if you are an investor, but Palantir has already been tasked to help with the reconstruction:

Palantir and Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine strike reconstruction partnership

Palantir Technologies Inc and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine have today announced a partnership that will help enable the company’s

www.businesswire.com

Also, was the Times article about how Ukraine is using Palantirs technology to help with its war efforts posted in here?

It dropped bout a week ago.

 

[MushroomX]