Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

Liu Kang

Liu Kang

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Good analysis on the war of attrition switch. A bit long but very interesting.

www.csis.org

Ukrainian Innovation in a War of Attrition

Russia suffered more combat deaths in Ukraine in the first year of the war than in all of its wars combined since World War II. The average rate of Russian soldiers killed per month in Ukraine is 35 times greater than the number of Soviet soldiers killed in Afghanistan.
www.csis.org www.csis.org

The Issue
Russia suffered more combat deaths in Ukraine in the first year of the war than in all of its wars since World War II combined, according to a new CSIS analysis of the force disposition and military operations of Russian and Ukrainian units. The average rate of Russian soldiers killed per month is at least 25 times the number killed per month in Chechnya and 35 times the number killed in Afghanistan, which highlight the stark realities of a war of attrition. The Ukrainian military has also performed remarkably well against a much larger and initially better-equipped Russian military, in part due to the innovation of its forces.
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War of Attrition
The war in Ukraine has become a war of attrition.[4] Ukraine and Russia have constructed trench systems and made heavy use of artillery.[5] Russia has employed human-wave attacks against fixed Ukrainian positions, including frontal assaults that attempt to seize ground by sheer weight of numbers, rather than by superior positioning or effective combined arms employment.[6] Neither side has gained much territory since Ukraine’s successful offensives in late 2022, even as casualty rates have increased.[7] Both militaries have suffered significant damage to their weapons systems. For example, Russia lost approximately 50 percent of its modern T-72B3 and T-72B3M main battle tanks since the war began, along with roughly two-thirds of its T-80BV/U tanks.[8]
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The nature of the war in Ukraine can be most clearly seen in the fighting for Bakhmut, a small city in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. For months, Russian forces have relentlessly shelled the city, fought house to house, and used human-wave attacks to overwhelm Ukrainian defenders.[12] Spearheaded in recent months by the Russian private military company Wagner Group, Russian efforts to take Bakhmut have included recruiting vast numbers of prisoners from around the country to throw at the front lines—in addition to the use of regular Russian soldiers.[13] The Russian military has utilized three waves of fighters in some areas: a first line of contractors and green conscripts, whose casualty rates are often high; a second line of replacements; and a third line of relatively competent Russian forces.[14] Russia is accepting enormous casualties in return for only small amounts of territory. Despite intense fighting throughout the winter, Russia has only captured approximately 400 square miles of Ukrainian territory across the entire eastern front since September 2022.[15] As Figures 3.1 and 3.2 show, there are numerous signs of attrition warfare, including defensive infantry trench systems, anti-tank ditches and berms, and impact craters from artillery.
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According to CSIS estimates, there have been approximately 60,000 to 70,000 Russian combat fatalities in Ukraine between February 2022 and February 2023. These estimates include regular Russian soldiers from the Russian armed forces, Rosgvardiya, Federal Security Service, and Federal Guard Service; fighters from pro-Russian militias, such as the Donetsk People’s Militia and Luhansk People’s Militia; and contractors from such private military companies as the Wagner Group.[23] Overall, Russia has suffered roughly 200,000 to 250,000 total casualties—personnel wounded, killed, and missing—during the first year of the war. These casualty estimates also include regular Russian soldiers, militia fighters, and private contractors from the Wagner Group.[24]
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Ukrainian Innovation
Military innovation is one factor that likely explains how Ukraine has overcome its disadvantages, though it is clearly not the only factor. The Ukrainian “will to fight,” political and military leadership (including that of President Zelenskyy), strategy, and force employment have all likely mattered, as has military, economic, and diplomatic support from the West. But innovation increases the ability of a weaker military to reverse the gains of a stronger one.
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www.economist.com

Ukraine’s tech entrepreneurs turn to military matters

Drone and targeting systems are being improved by dozens of entrepreneurs
www.economist.com www.economist.com

Ukraine’s tech entrepreneurs turn to military matters​

Drone and targeting systems are being improved by dozens of entrepreneurs​


20230225_EUP001.jpg

Feb 23rd 2023 | KYIV AND ODESSA


On a promotional video a dog-biscuit hurtles into the air and two dogs fly upwards to intercept it. Until the Russian invasion in February 2022, Yaroslav Azhnyuk ran a company that makes pet monitors which can distribute treats. Now he is helping entrepreneurs intercept cruise missiles. Ukraine’s war has led to an explosion of engineering talent being diverted from the humdrum to war fighting. As a result, he says, his country is becoming “a sort of military Silicon Valley”.

With friends in high places in the tech sector, business and government, Mr Azhnyuk’s contribution to the war effort is connecting people. Soldiers at the front say, “Hey, we need this,” and he introduces them to engineers who can try to solve their problem. “Everyone has only one goal,” he says, “and that is to free Ukrainian territories and destroy the occupiers.”

Hundreds of teams are now working on military technology. Many are garage start-ups but there are also companies that were founded in the wake of the first phase of the conflict in 2014, or pivoted towards defence at that point. Some of what they are producing is cutting-edge; some is well established, but export controls or cost mean that Ukraine’s armed forces cannot get their hands on it. The work spans the whole gamut of what the military needs, from drones and targeting systems to cyber-defences and electronic warfare.

One of the most developed systems is called Delta and provides soldiers with real-time intelligence about the battlefield on their phones or tablets. Or there is Kropyva, mapping software that helps the user pinpoint artillery and send that information instantly to several positions which can then blast away at it simultaneously. To date, much of Ukraine’s military technology is more advanced than what the Russians possess. But, say developers, the Russians are catching up fast.

In freezing wind whipping in from the Black Sea a drone lifts off on a test flight. A two-man crew directs it and identifies targets. These spotter drones use specialised new software to correct artillery and can fly in high winds, unlike many others. When his company, Spaitech, was founded in 2012, says Pavlo Hrozov, the ceo, it originally aimed to supply the civilian market. Now, says Mr Hrozov dryly, the Russians “are hunting for us”. Two teams operating Spaitech drones have been killed on the front. Last year a missile struck a field where an hour before soldiers were being trained to use them.



A year ago, says Mr Hrozov, there were about ten different types of drones being made in Ukraine; now there are 68. Roboneers is one of the 2014 generation of companies which already made military drones and which is now diversifying. These days it makes dozens a month, and by the end of March production will be in the hundreds. The company also makes buggy-style unmanned land drones and tech-packed gun turrets that can be operated remotely. The turrets are like tripods with guns that can defend fixed positions or be mounted on a land drone. Their aim, says its director, who asks not to be identified, is to save Ukrainian lives and to “help soldiers understand what is going on in the battlefield”, for which software is key. Some of the software is new but some replicates that which already exists elsewhere. A big difference is the cost. Their gun-turret system, for example, costs less than 10% of a similar one from Israel.

Dmytro Bielievtsov runs a company which has developed voice-cloning software for the entertainment industry; he has an Emmy award statuette in his office to prove it. One of his wartime projects is Zvook, which is already filling gaps in Ukraine’s air-defence systems. Working with engineers in the 125th Brigade who built the hardware, Mr Bielievtsov and his colleagues developed algorithms that filter out unwanted sounds like cars and mooing cows to give warning of incoming cruise missiles. Lieutenant “Dancer”, who is in charge of a similar military-civilian unit which is about to begin production of kamikaze drones, says he knows of about a dozen such groups.

The way in which Israel married investors, engineers and the military is “100% of the idea that we have”, says Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of digital transformation. Next month he is launching a platform to bring together everyone involved, giving grants to startups, linking them with investors and giving them access to equipment owned by Ukroboronprom, the country’s massive Soviet-legacy defence conglomerate.

Zvook has already found potential investors, says Mr Bielievtsov. They understand that while its aim is to protect the country now, afterwards the company will have potential as a defence manufacturer “for the global market”. The director of Roboneers says that after the war he wants to start a space company “to build something on the moon”. For that he says, “you need to have systems that have already been tested” and replaced men in situations that are “very uncomfortable for human beings”. Where better than the front line?
 
Cuban Pete

Cuban Pete

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SOHH ICEY MONOPOLY
Spidey Man said:
The poles want all the smoke.
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List of armed conflicts involving Poland against Russia - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

They've fought SEVENTEEN different times throughout history. These two are on Britain/France or Greece/Turkey timing with each other. Whats crazy is historically Ukraine was really split between Poland and Russia and thats as the source of tension so it would be nothing new for the Poles to jump ib on this.

Can they decide to send in their army without activating article 5? Someone let me know didnt France abstain from the Iraq war since it was a preemptive military strike?
 
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