Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[ill]

Crimea by October...

Ban bet on that?

 

[voiture]

Ban bet on that?

Since you are a Russia fan, What is the end goal here for Putin? There is no way he can subdue all of Ukraine. He will get some land but basically he expanded NATO to his door step with this war (Sweden, Finland).

The Russian economic GDP is going to be slashed by over 10% (third world stuff) and even more next year. Most of the worlds powerful countries have banned flights which pretty much destroys most industries in the country.

Big brands have left and may never come back. What is the end goal here for Putin? He is done out here, if he signs a peace treaty that's even more of an embarrassment. Anyway you look at it, there are no good options.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

Ban bet on that?

negged.

 

[88m3]

TikTok resists calls to preserve Ukraine content for war crime investigations

Chinese-owned app is a trove of digital intelligence that lawyers want to archive.

arstechnica.com

 

[88m3]

Plan To Train Ukrainian Pilots On U.S. Jets Passed By House Of Representatives

After months of campaigning for new equipment, Ukrainian Air Force pilots could be poised to start training on U.S.-made fighter jets.

www.thedrive.com

 

[SnugglesDaBear]

The economic sanctions package looks like a catastrophic blunder a few months later now. It has done little to change Russia's rationale or posture in this conflict, has not affected their ability to fund the war in the short to mid-term, and has had far larger knock-on effects on the global economy than initially presumed by USA and EU. Energy prices appear locked in at these highs for the foreseeable future and, along with inflation, will have political consequences for sitting governments in all the G7 countries (and already have). It'll likely even get more grim in the winter, especially for the EU, if and when gas shortages have a glaring effect on day to day life.

This is without considering the effect of food shortages and food price hike on rest of the world, though at least that can be argued to have less of a direct connection to sanctions.

So far answer from Biden, EU etc has been to rhetorically blame Russia for the consequences, which while true in principle, is unlikely to have much resonance politically. There is also already some airing ofregret/second-guessing about where the sanctions should go from now and their effect on the economy: US Officials Are Split Over the Next Round of Russia Sanctions

Militarily it also appears the situation looks a lot less promising from Western perspective than it was a few months ago, now that Russia has concentrated its war aims. Looks like a grim path ahead both on political, economic, and war fronts.

Agree with everything you said. I will add that the political blowback over the next few years will inevitably lead to more far-right, pro-Russian politicians being elected in these Western countries.

@thatrapsfan we are prophets.

Europe is on fire. More to come….Scholz? According to the telegraph they plotting.

 

[88m3]

Ukraine Gets First M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems

The M270 in Ukrainian hands is bad news for the Russians who are already suffering from HIMARS attacks.

www.thedrive.com

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

Ukraine rockets ‘significantly’ reducing Russian attack potential

Ukraine says Russia’s attacking capability ‘significantly reduced’ as Kyiv claims destruction of some 30 military sites.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[barese]

Renaud Girard: «Le moralisme contreproductif des Occidentaux»

CHRONIQUE - La leçon de morale est un instrument diplomatique périmé à l’ère numérique. Ce qui compte, c’est le soft power décrit par Joseph Nye.

www.lefigaro.fr

I agree with this.

Instead of the moralizing sanctions, Europe should have secretly sent arms to Ukraine and slowly filled it's gas deposits in silence.

Only after the secured winter supply, it should have joined the American sanctions...

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

Renaud Girard: «Le moralisme contreproductif des Occidentaux»

CHRONIQUE - La leçon de morale est un instrument diplomatique périmé à l’ère numérique. Ce qui compte, c’est le soft power décrit par Joseph Nye.

www.lefigaro.fr

I agree with this.

Instead of the moralizing sanctions, Europe should have secretly sent arms to Ukraine and slowly filled it's gas deposits in silence.

Only after the secured winter supply, it should have joined the American sanctions...

would've, could've, should've...hindsight is 20/20.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

@thatrapsfan we are prophets.

Europe is on fire. More to come….Scholz? According to the telegraph they plotting.

leaders of democratic nations come and go.
that is a good thing.
dictators reigns lapping the serving terms of elected officials is not something to brag about.
dictators rule end one of two ways:

1) Stay in power until death and fukk everything else.

or

2) Murdered in office and fukk everything else.


Russia wishes it could move on from Putin and draw a giant X over him but...they can't. and that is very sad.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

Agree with everything you said. I will add that the political blowback over the next few years will inevitably lead to more far-right, pro-Russian politicians being elected in these Western countries.

Le Pen lost in France.
Boris is out in the U.K.
Trump got ousted in the U.S.

far-right populism is on the decline by any measure.
what can you point to that counters this?

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

The economic sanctions package looks like a catastrophic blunder a few months later now. It has done little to change Russia's rationale or posture in this conflict, has not affected their ability to fund the war in the short to mid-term, and has had far larger knock-on effects on the global economy than initially presumed by USA and EU. Energy prices appear locked in at these highs for the foreseeable future and, along with inflation, will have political consequences for sitting governments in all the G7 countries (and already have). It'll likely even get more grim in the winter, especially for the EU, if and when gas shortages have a glaring effect on day to day life.

This is without considering the effect of food shortages and food price hike on rest of the world, though at least that can be argued to have less of a direct connection to sanctions.

So far answer from Biden, EU etc has been to rhetorically blame Russia for the consequences, which while true in principle, is unlikely to have much resonance politically. There is also already some airing ofregret/second-guessing about where the sanctions should go from now and their effect on the economy: US Officials Are Split Over the Next Round of Russia Sanctions

Militarily it also appears the situation looks a lot less promising from Western perspective than it was a few months ago, now that Russia has concentrated its war aims. Looks like a grim path ahead both on political, economic, and war fronts.

Russia's invasion is the real blunder.
keep focusing on the "short to mid-term".

this was supposed to be a quick exercise so keep acting like it is.
your predictions of global calamity due to Russia's malicious act are not something to be claimed as victories if and when they come to fruition. can you not see that? all of this could have been avoided if Russia simply did not invade.

Full stop.
and as to your last point about things looking up for Russia and concentrating it's war aims, my guy...Russia is begging Iran for drones.
for better or worse the U.S. is a military Juggernaut. even if every other nation stopped feeding Ukraine's war effort, the U.S. could do it single handedly and things would look relatively similar to how they do now; Ukraine slowly but surely getting stronger while Russia slowly bleeds out.

it is what it is...

 

[thatrapsfan]

Russia's invasion is the real blunder.
keep focusing on the "short to mid-term".

this was supposed to be a quick exercise so keep acting like it is.
your predictions of global calamity due to Russia's malicious act are not something to be claimed as victories if and when they come to fruition. can you not see that? all of this could have been avoided if Russia simply did not invade.

Full stop.
and as to your last point about things looking up for Russia and concentrating it's war aims, my guy...Russia is begging Iran for drones.
for better or worse the U.S. is a military Juggernaut. even if every other nation stopped feeding Ukraine's war effort, the U.S. could do it single handedly and things would look relatively similar to how they do now; Ukraine slowly but surely getting stronger while Russia slowly bleeds out.

it is what it is...

Russia has full culpability for the invasion, that is true, and I’m not of the view that there hand was forced by an American plot or something along those lines.

You can hold that view while also analyzing whether the sanctions package was the correct course of action. In my view it was not.

The clear aim of the package was to influence Russia’s military posture, cripple their ability to finance the war, and potentially even create environment for domestic political upheaval there. In my reading, none of those major aims appear to have been achieved ( or close to it), making the second and third order effects on the global economy not worthwhile.

True the war itself has created conditions for rise in global energy prices, but sanctions package unquestionably made a bad environment worse. Recent posture of Biden Admin actually suggests they are cognizant of this - see their pushback against EU plans to ban Russian oil exports and to propose some sort of price cap instead so Russians continue to export their oil in order to stabilize global price.

The stuff about Russian military strength vis-a-vis US has little do with my post. Never argued otherwise but doesn’t really matter in this context since there will not be any US-Russian military engagement barring a catastrophe. Far more likely this war will continue to grind on with current territorial map frozen more or less, a year down the line. I think that scenario is the worse of all worlds and people inevitably tire of wars that drag on outside of their country. I can see overall support for sanctions package softening as governments change and direct their focus to domestic politics and the economy. Time will tell.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

The clear aim of the package was to influence Russia’s military posture, cripple their ability to finance the war, and potentially even create environment for domestic political upheaval there. In my reading, none of those major aims appear to have been achieved ( or close to it), making the second and third order effects on the global economy not worthwhile.

you are really going to stand there with a straight face and tell me that these sanctions are not hampering Russia's ability to wage war?
begging China for rations and supplies, begging Iran for drones.
Russia ain't building new tanks, guided munitions, war ships, etc.


lol.