After combing through the more reliable outlets of the independent Russian press and social media, I had a lengthy conversation with Mikhail Zygar, one of the most knowledgeable reporters and commentators on Kremlin power. Zygar is a former editor-in-chief of TV Rain (known as Dozhd in Russian) an independent channel that Putin closed after the start of the war.
When I asked Zygar what was the most striking aspect of the uprising, he said, “Putin is weaker. I have the feeling he is not really running the country. Certainly, not the way he once did. He is still President, but all the different clans”—the factions within the government, the military, and, most important, the security services—“now have the feeling that ‘Russia after Putin’ is getting closer. Putin is still alive. He is still there in his bunker. But there is the growing feeling that he is a lame duck, and they have to prepare for Russia after Putin.”
In ideological terms, Zygar said, “Prigozhin combines two ideas. The first is anti-corruption and anti-oligarch. Despite his own wealth, which is immense, he always portrayed himself as the oligarch-fighter. At the same time, he is super illiberal. He hates the West, and he claims to be the real protector of traditional values. He probably has more supporters beyond the Wagner Group; there are people in the Army, the F.S.B., the Interior Ministry, who could be his ideological allies.”
“Prigozhin has a distinct background,” Zygar said. “He speaks the way prisoners speak. He is the average guy. He went the same way that Putin did twenty years ago when politicians, in 1999, were very old and looked dead and Soviet. They couldn’t speak the language of the people. Putin spoke like a gangster, like a gopnik, like someone from the Leningrad slums. That was a cultural coup—a guy who knows the problems of the simple people. Prigozhin has come along and has followed that pattern in an even more brutal way.”
“Before this rebellion, there were a lot of rumors and theories about different clans supporting Prigozhin. There were rumors that he was supported by siloviki [security-service figures] in business like Igor Sechin [the C.E.O. of the energy conglomerate Rosneft and a former Deputy Prime Minister] and Sergey Chemezov [the C.E.O. of the state-owned defense conglomerate, Rostec].”
Zygar went on, “The F.S.B. [a successor to the K.G.B.] and G.R.U. [military intelligence] is not a single clan; it is a mixture of different clans, and we will see how they are going to react. For years, Putin has selected his inner circle with only one criterion: a lack of ambition. They are not the best of the best. They are the worst of the worst. So how will such mediocrities face up to one desperately brave person, or a desperately brave group of terrorists? We will see.”
How Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed the Russian President.
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