Helsinki Versus Yalta: A Conversation About Russia with NATO’s Vershbow
NATO's departing deputy secretary-general speaks about relations with Moscow
By
JULIAN E. BARNES
Oct 14, 2016 5:34 am ET
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, right, congratulates outgoing Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow at his last meeting of alliance ambassadors.PHOTO: NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Alexander Vershbow steps down Monday as deputy secretary-general, capping a career that spans nearly four decades that has helped shape the approach of the United States and the Western allies to the Soviet Union and Russia. He sat down with The Wall Street Journal this week to discuss relations with Russia. Edited excerpts follow.
Q. You have been dealing with Russia for the bulk of your career. Talk about the arc of the relationship as you have seen it. Where do we stand now?
“I became a student of Russia when I was still in high school when I had the chance to study the language and visited the Soviet Union in 1969. Ten years later, I was a young diplomat in the embassy in Moscow. It was a bleak period. It was a global superpower competition. But there was, by that time, a certain element of predictability to the relationship, at least in the birthplace of the Cold War, Europe…”
“The main competition was on the global arena, Afghanistan … Ethiopia, Angola and Nicaragua. The competition was outside of Europe but inside Europe we were achieving a certain element of stability.
“Fast forward to my first tour at NATO in 1991 when, thanks to the Gorbachev phenomenon, the Cold War came to an end, mostly peacefully. We were able to make enormous strides to healing the divisions of Europe… Despite differences over [NATO] enlargement, we were able to work with the Russians. We even had Russian peacekeepers shoulder to shoulder with NATO soldiers in Bosnia and later in Kosovo.
“The possibility of a partnership was still there when I arrived as deputy secretary-general in 2012. … But the world changed in 2014. In some ways it was back to the rivalry of the Cold War but it is also very different. Because when I served in Brezhnev’s Russia and worked at the State Department desk in ’80s and headed the desk in the late ’80s, Russia was interested in strengthening the rules-based system. Russia was trying to create a stable status quo… We were able to cooperate in Europe and achieve a basic stability. We don’t have that any more. Putin is a revisionist leader who wants to, I think, roll back the post-Cold War settlement…
“We have a situation where Russia does not accept the rules in Europe and so therefore Europe is the most unstable peace. That is different than the Cold War. They are not a status-quo power. They want to reestablish spheres of influence. Our model is
Helsinki. Their model is
Yalta.”
Q: What are the implications of that, what are the prospects for dialogue?
“We have to be realistic about how much we can achieve with Russia. We can’t be fatalistic. We have to try to convince them to lower the risks in the relationship, restore transparency and predictability so that inadvertent incidents don’t spin out of control. But going back to the more creative achievements of the détente period, much less the post-Cold War period, the prospects are pretty dim.
“Reaching agreements on anything will be more difficult. but it is in our own vital interests, and we have to persuade the Russians that it is in their own vital interests, to manage what is going to be a competitive relationship overall. But at least to restore some of the predictability and stability we used to have in the détente period.
“But that requires a political decision in Moscow that they want to be transparent… We have taken the moral and justifiable stance when it comes to going back practical cooperation, to business as usual, it is simply impossible as long as they remain entrenched in Ukraine. It would be a betrayal of the Ukrainians and our principles to basically let bygones be bygones. We made that mistake—to some degree—after the Georgia war.”
Q: What are the prospects that sanctions against Russia for their actions in Ukraine will be extended?
“There are political leaders in and out of government who complain about the economic burden and some who are prepared to reach an accommodation with Russia… Overall Europe has been steadfast and s
hown they are much more willing to stay the course than Putin may have calculated.”
Q. Will we see a NATO-Russia Council meeting in October?
“It is not clear when it will take place but I think it will happen in the coming weeks. We
gave our reaction to the various proposals they presented at the July 13 NRC… We saw the Russians trying to get around our decisions to suspend practical cooperation. But on some issues, like aviation safety, we are ready to continue the discussion.”