DrBanneker
Space is the Place
Now before you yell "Brazil here we come" there are aspects to account for since it varies a lot by region and the percent of kids born is not the same as the percent of Black men or women in IR couples with children for statistical reasons including fertility etc.
In summary per birth certificate data from CDC where the race of the mother and father are both listed, 19% of births (15% of births from Black men fathers and 9% of births from Black women mothers) were with a non-Black partner. Non-Black here means no Black ancestry, I include Black/mixed Black relationships in the numbers above.
This varies from a low of 15% of births in the South + Maryland (12% rate Black men, 9% rate Black women) to 27% of births west of the Mississippi excluding Texas & Louisiana which are considered the South (20% Black men rate and 8% Black woman rate). Midwest is at the average with 22% of births (18% for Black men and 6% for Black women). Northeast is between the South and Midwest at 18% of kids (14% for Black men, 6% for Black women). Again the rates for the parents and children do not match because of statistics reasons I won't dwell on here unless people want the details in another post.
Highest states include Oregon and Washington at around 45% of kids and states where there are basically no Black people (think Wyoming and Idaho) where the rate exceeds 50-60%.
Lowest states include DC (8%), Mississippi (9%), Georgia (11%), Louisiana and Maryland (12%) and New Jersey (16%).
Lowest states west of the Mississippi are California (which may surprise some people; same numbers as Ohio, lower than Kentucky) at roughly 1 in 4 (24%) and Nevada at roughly 1 in 5 (21%). Most the rest west of the Mississippi (excluding Texas and Louisiana) tend to hover around 1 in 3.
Mixed Black people have an even larger regional swing with who they get with. Nationally, mixed women have kids with Black men at a 50% rate, mixed men with Black women at a 21% rate. This ranges from Georgia where 70% of mixed women and 40% of mixed men have kids with Black people to Washington and Oregon where 28% of mixed women and 9% of mixed men have kids with Black folks. DC is the only place where mixed men get with Black women the majority of the time (52%). Mixed people get with each other at a 10% rate nationally.
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Why is this interesting? This will be the Black Americans (if they choose to affiliate with us and call themselves that) in their 20s in the late 2030s and 2040s. So basically rather than a national Brazil we will have places, like the South, Maryland, and parts of the northeast, which seem like they will maintain a relatively historically traditional Black community, though with a higher mixed representation, and where marriage/coupling patterns of mixed people indicate that they largely identify with the Black community in these areas.
On the flip side, outside of heavy Black areas out west like LA County, Alameda County & Contra Costa County in the Bay, North Las Vegas, and parts of Denver and Phoenix, the Black populations there are close to integrating. You will still have Black people all over the West but I am not sure that population will automatically be a "community" like it was in the past. Communities out there will be a small and intentional minded groups of local Black folks which may be a better or worse situation depending on your perspective.
Old school segregated communities in certain states with very low Black populations probably won't survive as we know them by next generation, especially since these states also tend to have a net out-migration of young Blacks.
Midwest is a toss up. I would guess people near major centers like Chicago or Detroit will tilt heavily Black for the foreseeable future, the suburbs will have a Black community with a lot of mixed people that may or may not identify with the Black community, and the rural areas may still be segregated but with a large mixed population.
@Suge Shot Me @Voice of Reason
In summary per birth certificate data from CDC where the race of the mother and father are both listed, 19% of births (15% of births from Black men fathers and 9% of births from Black women mothers) were with a non-Black partner. Non-Black here means no Black ancestry, I include Black/mixed Black relationships in the numbers above.
This varies from a low of 15% of births in the South + Maryland (12% rate Black men, 9% rate Black women) to 27% of births west of the Mississippi excluding Texas & Louisiana which are considered the South (20% Black men rate and 8% Black woman rate). Midwest is at the average with 22% of births (18% for Black men and 6% for Black women). Northeast is between the South and Midwest at 18% of kids (14% for Black men, 6% for Black women). Again the rates for the parents and children do not match because of statistics reasons I won't dwell on here unless people want the details in another post.
Highest states include Oregon and Washington at around 45% of kids and states where there are basically no Black people (think Wyoming and Idaho) where the rate exceeds 50-60%.
Lowest states include DC (8%), Mississippi (9%), Georgia (11%), Louisiana and Maryland (12%) and New Jersey (16%).
Lowest states west of the Mississippi are California (which may surprise some people; same numbers as Ohio, lower than Kentucky) at roughly 1 in 4 (24%) and Nevada at roughly 1 in 5 (21%). Most the rest west of the Mississippi (excluding Texas and Louisiana) tend to hover around 1 in 3.
Mixed Black people have an even larger regional swing with who they get with. Nationally, mixed women have kids with Black men at a 50% rate, mixed men with Black women at a 21% rate. This ranges from Georgia where 70% of mixed women and 40% of mixed men have kids with Black people to Washington and Oregon where 28% of mixed women and 9% of mixed men have kids with Black folks. DC is the only place where mixed men get with Black women the majority of the time (52%). Mixed people get with each other at a 10% rate nationally.
--------
Why is this interesting? This will be the Black Americans (if they choose to affiliate with us and call themselves that) in their 20s in the late 2030s and 2040s. So basically rather than a national Brazil we will have places, like the South, Maryland, and parts of the northeast, which seem like they will maintain a relatively historically traditional Black community, though with a higher mixed representation, and where marriage/coupling patterns of mixed people indicate that they largely identify with the Black community in these areas.
On the flip side, outside of heavy Black areas out west like LA County, Alameda County & Contra Costa County in the Bay, North Las Vegas, and parts of Denver and Phoenix, the Black populations there are close to integrating. You will still have Black people all over the West but I am not sure that population will automatically be a "community" like it was in the past. Communities out there will be a small and intentional minded groups of local Black folks which may be a better or worse situation depending on your perspective.
Old school segregated communities in certain states with very low Black populations probably won't survive as we know them by next generation, especially since these states also tend to have a net out-migration of young Blacks.
Midwest is a toss up. I would guess people near major centers like Chicago or Detroit will tilt heavily Black for the foreseeable future, the suburbs will have a Black community with a lot of mixed people that may or may not identify with the Black community, and the rural areas may still be segregated but with a large mixed population.
@Suge Shot Me @Voice of Reason
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Goodbye racism, hello colorism
