My picks predictions. Probably be long but
Fight pass premlims
Thiago Santos vs Andy Entz- Santos UD
Richard Moreira vs IIdemar Alcantara- Alcantara UD
Jimmy Hettis vs Diego Brandao- Hettis is a solid grappler but that throttling by Bermudez last fight exposed his lack of physicality for that division.. Brando is a powerful, explosive fighter but mentally folds for some reason. If he gases during the first like hes been doing, Hettis could steal this. I got Brandao by TKO RD1
FS1 Prelims
Rafael Natal vs Tom Watson- This is a throwback to the shytty days of the MW division. This fight will be terrible. Natal either gets KTFO or wins in boring fashion. Watson just sucks. I can't think of a single thing hes good at. Natal UD
Ian McCall vs Jon Lineker- This is probably the title eliminator for the 125lb belt. On paper, McCall should be the favorite. Hes faster, has technically sound striking, and is an excellent level changer. But hes not a smart fighter and easily gets drawn into a style of fight he should not be engaging in. Lineker is obviously the bigger and more powerful of the two. If he can impose his will on McCall and turn the fight into a brawl, I could see him winning. In fact, I think that will happen and Lineker takes it by UD. Hopefully he makes weight also
Ed Herman vs Derek Brunson- I think Brunson is a sleeper in the MW division. Good technical kickboxer with solid wrestling. He was real competitive vs Romero and basically sent Larkin to WW. Ed Herman is tough as balls but thats really it. Hes washed. Brunson by dominate UD
Miesha Tate vs Sarah Mcmann- Not looking forward to this fight. A lot of ppl are high on Mcmann but I don't see it. Her wrestling outside of TD's has not transition to MMA well. She was struggling with top position against Lauren Murphy where she was getting beat up from the bottom and basically lay n prayed for the win. No real guard passing, GnP, sub attempts, nothing. She also strugged against Bayzler too. And her striking is very basic even for Womens MMA and only serves as a mean for her TD. Tate is honestly a below average fighter at this point. She has not looked good at all since coming to UFC. She really didn't do anything against Rin Naki despite a huge size advantage and was losing it at certain points. The terrible Carrmouche fight that I thought she lost. Terrible, dumb Rousey fight. Her IQ is low. Her striking/wrestling is predicable and ugly. Only good aspect I could identify in her game is decent BJJ, but she has been too inconsistnet with that along with everything else. Because of this, I see McMann wrestle fukking her for the UD
Main Card
Jordan Mein vs Thiago Alves- Pitbull back again after another injury. He looked more patient and technical in his comeback vs Seth Baczynski, but lacked that dominate explosive power of old. Its esp glaring considering Baczynski got KO easily by Alan Joubin, which only highlights Alves fall. I think the injuries robbed him of what made him a beast, because the old Pitbull would demolish Mein the same way Brown wound up doing in their fight. I expect it to be competitive, but I think Mein, who is in his prime, will probably just be more sharper and quicker with his attacks. Mein TKO RD2
Thales Leites vs Tim Boestch- Leites is another unsung MW whose basically having a career rebirth under Paternerias at Nova Uniao. His striking is very crisp and powerful to go along with his elite BJJ. The way he plastered Carmont, who is no joke, was scary. I don't see what Boestch can do to to win. Ever since the Phillipou fight, hes look bad. He doesn't have the length to contend with Leites and his striking has always been awkward. Unless he gets a freak KO inside like he did against Okami and Taveres, I don't see this going well for him. Leites TKO RD 3
Al Iaquinta vs Joe Lauzon- FOTN right here.Iaquinta looked great against Ross Pearson last fight. His boxing was sharp and thats saying something against when fighting someone like Pearson. Hopefully his mental troubles are behind and he continues this momentum. Lauzon is an exciting fighter but his flaws are still as wide as ever. He was getting tagged more then a few times by Cheisa, who is by no mean known for his striking at all. And that Johnson fight
He still tries to walk through everything in hopes of landing his own or dragging you to the ground for a sub. Hes been getting hit for a while and I think this is the fight his chin finally fails him. Iaquinta comes from an elite camp(longo/serra) and I think they will have a good gameplan for him. Iaquinta KO RD3
Kelvin Gasteleum vs Tyron Woodley- Intruiging fight. Gasteluem is probably the best TUF winner with serious title shot implications since Nelson. Woodley is a bizarre fighter. One fight he will look like a wrecking ball and the next he will look like a timid deer caught in headlights. He usually struggles against pressure fighters with strikes(Rory) or grappling(shields).He also has a tendency to get stuck on the cage and get wrecked. Gasteluem is the kind of fighter who could do that to him. Of course Woodley can be aggressive like he was against Condit/Koscheck and throw confident power strikes. And Gasteluem, as talented as he is, is still inexperienced. He was getting countered like crazy when he was launching an aggressive barrage on Story. You don't want to be on the wrong end of Woodley's punches. I will go with Gastelum because of his confidence, constant improvement, and momentum but wouldn't be surprised if Woodley KO'd him
Anderson Silva vs Nick Diaz- This fight is much closer then ppl think. Both guys coming off a long lay off for different reasons. We know Diaz style and what to expect. We don't know about Silva. If the rehab has left him a different fighter. His mentality heading into the fight. In his most recent fights, he has looked slower with the footwork/movement. I think thats why he was standing in front of his opponents like that more then usual, baiting them in his range for the counter. Hes 40 and the invincibility wears off eventually. It will be interesting to see the weigh ins. Diaz is a big ass WW. Silva is taller and has longer limbs, but I don't think he will be that much smaller then Silva. Also, will Silva throw leg kicks? Will he be confident? If Diaz even attempts to check a kick, how will that affect Silva's physique? What if Diaz taunts and bait his way into a boxing match where Silva will be at a disadvantage? I could easily see that happening, esp with an emotional guy like Silva. And if the fight hits the ground, Diaz is much better offensively with his guard/BJJ. With all that said, smart money is on silva. More power, versatilility, better accuracy. He will be methodical in his attack and catch Diaz, who only attacks coming straight forward. Unless Silva is a radically different fighter, an older, less dynamic version of him is still better then Diaz. Silva TKO RD 4