Recession of 2020? It’s actually a Great Depression

[FAH1223]

Lots of mis-characterizations going around. A recession is likely to happen...the signs were there well over a year ago when the yield curve first started signalling something was up. But there are no signs that this is going to be as bad as the 2008 recession, and anyone claiming there's going to be a "revolution" after this is just exposing the fact that they don't pay attention. The 2008/9 recession was literally the worst recession since the Great Depression. Previous to that, the US economy has typically had a recession once a decade. We're within that range right now.

I expect there to be job losses and poor growth, but it won't be utterly terrible. Will it be bad enough to kick Trump out of office? Sure, since a lot of this has been sped on by his terrible policies on trade. I'm just curious how the administration will react to an actual recession. I'd expect Trump to blame the Fed and start firing people...which will make the market tank further.

This also complicates the next administration. If you think any president is going to enter office during a recession and raise taxes, you're delusional. If a democrats sweeps into office with the House and senate in his/her pocket...I think we get a major spending/stimulus bill. Infrastructure or something. Basically a repeat of 2009. Followed by financial regulations.

They'd reverse the 2017 tax cut for corporations and wealthy. Most Dems are on record with doing that.

 

[Piff Perkins]

Yea....

 

[ExodusNirvana]

Yo...people legit voted for this man

It still boggles my mind. Americans have a deathwish

 

[MoneyTron]

I think the thing you may be underestimating is the amount of debt corporations and individuals have right now. That's what may cause this recession to be exasperated along with the trade war with china being the wild card.

Not to mention that the government doesn’t have the options for stimulus as it did in 2008.

Decreased tax revenue, higher deficits, and Republicans already pushed through an absolutely idiotic tax cut.

 

[GzUp]

Yea....

Didn’t China make a deal with someone else on buying soybeans?

 

[FAH1223]

Not to mention that the government doesn’t have the options for stimulus as it did in 2008.

Decreased tax revenue, higher deficits, and Republicans already pushed through an absolutely idiotic tax cut.

If a Dem wins and has been advised by Stephanie Kelton

We might get some MMT

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

Isn’t this what a lot of old school HL/KTL’ers wanted?

Protectionism and blaming the Fed?

 

[No Ma’am]

Obama steered this country out of a recession and this fool is speeding it into one.

Obama told that fool to knock that monkey shyt off, this fool wondering, "Vlad, is we sick?"

 

[Piff Perkins]

Obama steered this country out of a recession and this fool is speeding it into one.

Obama told that fool to knock that monkey shyt off, this fool wondering, "Vlad, is we sick?"

I've been thinking about Wall St lately and its response to Obama shyt talking them. They spent years throwing tantrums over him. Yet when you think about it, Obama gave Wall St the market that smart investors wanted: steady, consistent growth. On the flip side, Trump has given us a market that only a rich college kid might like: nonstop boom bust, no consistency, up and down from one disaster to another. Yet Obama never gets credit for the market lmao.

Back to the economy though..assuming all this goes as Trump said it would go today...September will be ugly. That's when you'll start seeing price increases and fukkery. Right now the damage of tariffs is moreso focused on specific areas of the country like the midwest, and specific industries like farming. As we get closer to the holiday season it's going to become more evident that shyt is more expensive, and that's not going to go over well....

 

[JNew]

There already tying to normalize soybean burgers.

 

[IVS]

It will be a manufactured recession.

 

[GzUp]

It will be a manufactured recession.

Explain

 

[phcitywarrior]

It will be a manufactured recession.

Hit the nail on the head. While there are some segments of the economy that are questionable, I do think this upcoming recession will be more so larger players using a recession as a power play. Data suggests that yes, the economy has slowed down, but the US economy is still on solid footing.

I think we'll "talk" our way into a recession. At least in 2007 there was a fundamental gap in the system and there was broad exposure to bad housing debt. For now, we don't know. Perhaps corporate debt will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Until then we won't know.

Either way...stacking season.

 

[phcitywarrior]

Explain

Unlike the 2007 recession where there was a fundamental flaw in the housing system which exposed the broader economy to a lot of bad housing debt, we don't know (at least for now) if this is the same case. The hysteria of a coming recession might lead us into one as people start selling.

A recession is coming, no doubt, that's part of economics cycles, but as of yet, there hasn't been a single canary in the coal mine as an indicator of what will go bust.

Personally, I think corporate debt might be the "one" for this recession. Student loans will probably be the following one.

Just my personal take though.

 

[IVS]

Hit the nail on the head. While there are some segments of the economy that are questionable, I do think this upcoming recession will be more so larger players using a recession as a power play. Data suggests that yes, the economy has slowed down, but the US economy is still on solid footing.

I think we'll "talk" our way into a recession. At least in 2007 there was a fundamental gap in the system and there was broad exposure to bad housing debt. For now, we don't know. Perhaps corporate debt will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Until then we won't know.

Either way...stacking season.

Will probably be due to shadow banking. I read an article a year or two ago in Foreign Affairs about the dangers of shadow banking and how it could lead to another great recession.