How the Nets became one of the hottest teams in Vegas during the NBA hiatus
In early November, an anonymous bettor placed a $750 bet on DraftKings that the Brooklyn Nets would win the 2020 NBA Finals.
At the time, the team was off to a 3-4 start and was a week away from losing star guard Kyrie Irving to a season-derailing shoulder injury. Kevin Durant, of course, was already out with a torn Achilles. Even with Irving, the team’s chances were slim.
In January, another bettor wagered $400 at 300-1 odds for the Nets to, well, cut down the nets. That bet came during a stretch in which the Nets had dropped 12 of their previous 14 games.
When those bets were made, the gamblers were perceived as radicals in Vegas. But since the NBA season went on hiatus in March, the Brooklyn Nets have been one of the hottest teams in the league — in the eyes of sports gamblers.
The belief that Durant and Irving could return this season has made its way to Las Vegas as sports betting organizations have seen a spike in wagers for Brooklyn to win the NBA Finals, if the league resumes this summer. Since the season was suspended, only the Lakers have had more bets placed on them to take home a title.
“It’s kind of a speculative bet, but nothing compares to this situation,” said Dave Mason, the sportsbook brand manager at BetOnline.ag.
Vinny Magliulo, an oddsmaker at Southpoint/VSin, said he’d compare the Nets’ change in odds to when Michael Jordan returned to the Chicago Bulls after an 18-month stint in minor league baseball. At the beginning of the 1994-95 season, the Bulls opened the year at 12-1 to win the NBA Finals without Jordan. But the team struggled mightily without him and saw a significant drop midway through the season. After Jordan returned in March, the team went 13-4 and opened the playoffs at 5-1 odds before falling to the Magic in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
“That’s the closest thing that I can equate this to,” Magliulo said.
When the NBA season was suspended in March, the Nets’ odds to win the championship were dismal at 150-1 on BetOnline.ag, 300-1 on DraftKings and 250-1 at the South Point in Vegas. Also at that time,
Durant was playing three-on-three with the Nets’ “extra work group” and drew positive reviews from those involved in the games. Irving was just weeks removed from his shoulder surgery, a recovery that typically has a four- to six-month timeline.
The NBA
is targeting Disney World as the host for a possible resumption of the season in mid-July, which would be just over a year since Durant injured his Achilles. Nets general Sean Marks caused an uptick in bets, experts said, when earlier this month in an interview with a New Zealand news program he didn’t rule out Durant making a return this season. Marks hasn’t speculated on Durant’s status since, but it was enough to encourage gamblers.
Sportsbooks currently don’t have odds for when Irving and Durant will next play, which is why bettors have used the futures odds as a way to make their own predictions. South Point took down its NBA futures odds when play stopped, but the Nets odds’ to win the title have changed considerably to 75-1 (BetOnline.ag) and 60-1 (DraftKings). A week ago, BetOnline.ag had Brooklyn’s odds at 66-1. Still, analysts said the Nets’ odds are significantly less than teams that have been considered contenders all season, such as the Lakers (2.1-1), Bucks (2.75-1) and Clippers (3-1). Teams such as the Heat (20-1 odds) and Raptors (18-1), who have been among the top four in the Eastern Conference all season, have some distance between their odds and the Nets’.
Mason said the Nets account for roughly 15 percent of all NBA-related bets since the season went on hiatus. On DraftKings, Johnny Avello, who heads the site’s sportsbook, said the Nets have accounted for 16 percent of NBA bets in the same time frame. He noted that a large portion of the bets have come from the East Coast, specifically New Jersey and Pennsylvania, where sports betting is legal, and attributed it to the concentration of Nets fans in the area.
While the Nets’ odds continue to trend in the right direction, gambling analysts encouraged caution despite the recent bump. The surge in Nets bets are classified as “speculation bets,” meaning gamblers are putting money down on the idea that a Durant-Irving tandem will be enough to win a title, even though they have yet to play together and are coming off of major injuries. The rest of the roster will also have to adjust under interim coach Jacque Vaughn.
Another factor is the format of the NBA season and if regular season games are involved. Regardless, there is an emphasis for bets to be placed now because a return by either player will result in another shift in the odds.
“There’s a couple things that come to mind. The whole league has not played, so therefore everyone has to start all over again. Any momentum those teams had might be gone,” Avello said. “Where do we start? Are we going to start right in the playoffs? Everyone is in the same boat when it comes to basketball shape, but anything that they had going when the season ended is now off the table.
“The second piece is the Nets with those two are on equal terms with most players. Is LeBron (James) in the same shape he was when the season ended? Is Kevin Durant in good shape? The third part of it is the value — will the Nets win it? (Sixty-to-1) still tells you, but to get strong value whether they were able to win, you’re still in position to do an arbitrage if you want to.”
Avello said the Nets’ title chances could move to 30-1 if Durant and Irving both returned for the postseason, but he doesn’t see the Nets getting close to the Lakers’ odds unless they make a surprise run to the Finals. Avello said that will also be the case for the Nets’ futures odds; he could see them starting next season around 30-1.
“They’re behind those teams and are going to stay behind those teams until they can prove they can win a series,” Avello said.