Random NBA Observations 2015 - 2016
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DoubleJ13
Smooth sailing from here on out...
The War Report
NewNewYork
Tranny? :khart:It's Kevin Harlan and Greg didn't harass that tranny
Doc Rivers cannot coach shyt. He has awful rotations and needs talent to win more than talent needs him to succeed. He's a better version of Mark Jackson essentially, but they both have massive limitations in the x's and o's department.
NBA's top 15 players: Predicting all three All-NBA teams
The All-NBA team represents elite status, and there's a lot at stake -- a lot more than usual -- when it comes to the voting this season.
LeBron James has a chance to make the first team for the ninth consecutive season, joining Karl Malone and Larry Bird as the only players to do so since the ABA-NBA merger. With Kevin Durant healthy and Kawhi Leonard emerging as a candidate, however, LeBron is no sure thing.
The historical legacy of James' spot pales in comparisons to the financial implications for Anthony Davis. Because of the so-called Derrick Rose rule, Davis has approximately $24 million on the line based on whether he makes one of the All-NBA teams and qualifies to make a larger percentage of the salary cap during his five-year extension that kicks in next season.
Will James make first team? Will Davis make any of the three? I put together a model of what has mattered to All-NBA voting in the past to help answer those questions and more.
What predicts All-NBA voting
Last month, I looked at past MVP voting trends to see whether Stephen Curry might become the NBA's first unanimous MVP. Unsurprisingly, the three factors that helped explain MVP voting (a player's wins above replacement player, or WARP; team record; and points per game) have also been key in All-NBA voting over the past five seasons.
However, I found that two things improved the model's explanatory power. The first is games played, and that's important for Davis now that his season is over after 61 games due to impending surgery on a knee and a shoulder.
Here's the interesting thing: After we account for value provided using WARP, playing fewer games is actually a positive. The results suggest that where MVP voting is almost exclusively about value, voters tend to favor players who were more dominant in shorter seasons (think DeMarcus Cousins last year) when picking their All-NBA teams.
The other factor that comes into play for All-NBA voting might ultimately determine Davis' fate. The numbers show that centers have tended to get about 11.4 percent more of available votes than guards and 12.8 percent more than forwards over the past five years given equivalent production.
That makes sense when you look at the voting results. Though the NBA has relaxed its rules about where players are eligible on the ballot, the inability to pick between two positions as at guard and forward means the weakest All-NBA votes by far go to centers -- particularly during an era with few dominant players at the position.
Let's take a look at what the model says about this season's voting by position.
Guards: Will Harden get bumped to third team?
MVP Stephen Curry joined James as unanimous All-NBA first team picks last season, and the model suggests he'll repeat that honor with Russell Westbrook alongside him.
Top candidates
Player WARP Proj. Vote%
S. Curry 23.9 1.000
R. Westbrook 20.6 .806
K. Lowry 18.5 .657
J. Harden 17.0 .650
C. Paul 17.3 .537
D. Lillard 13.3 .439
K. Walker 13.1 .328
K. Thompson 7.4 .317
I. Thomas 11.5 .283
D. DeRozan 7.8 .232
J. Wall 12.8 .230
J. Butler 10.3 .225
The more interesting choice is for spots on the second team. The formula goes with Kyle Lowry and James Harden, but it would be surprising if voters snubbed Chris Paul. In this case, Paul probably gets extra credit for the Clippers' success because of how he has led the team in Blake Griffin's absence.
That would leave Harden fighting for a spot with Lowry, the best player on a Toronto Raptors team fighting for first place in the Eastern Conference. I wouldn't be surprised if voters favored Lowry over Harden due to the latter's indifferent defense and Houston's disappointing season. That would be a steep demotion, although a deserved one, given that Harden joined Curry on the first team last season.
The last All-NBA spot will probably go to Damian Lillard, who is also eligible for a Rose rule boost to his salary next season and beyond if he makes an All-NBA team. As part of his extension with the Portland Trail Blazers, Lillard agreed to cap his possible salary at 27.5 percent of the cap, according to BasketballInsiders.com, which means a difference of approximately $12 million in future salary if he's chosen All-NBA.
Prediction
First team: Stephen Curry | Russell Westbrook
Second team: Chris Paul | Kyle Lowry
Third team: James Harden | Damian Lillard
Forwards: Three stars for two spots
James, Durant and Leonard are all among the NBA's five best players, but because they happen to play the same position, one of them will end up on the second team.
Top candidates
Player WARP Proj. Vote%
K. Durant 18.0 .811
L. James 17.2 .695
K. Leonard 17.4 .695
P. George 13.0 .361
P. Millsap 14.0 .262
A. Davis 11.2 .248
D. Green 11.3 .244
L. Aldridge 8.6 .226
The model suggests James and Leonard are about equally likely to be the odd man out, with Durant closer to a lock because of his superior scoring average. My guess is Durant and James will edge out Leonard because of their longer track records as elite superstars.
The other forward spot on the second team probably belongs to Draymond Green, who's ideally suited to outperform his projected vote total. Most of Green's value lies at the defensive end, so while his WARP is good, it can't compare to his outstanding rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (Green ranks third among all players). RPM doesn't explain as much of past votes as WARP, but in this case voters will surely value Green's two-way contributions to the league's best team.
That leaves Davis battling for a third team spot at forward with Paul George and Paul Millsap. As of now, Davis is slightly ahead of George in WARP. However, he won't add to that total while George and Millsap continue to improve theirs.
(The chart projects final totals under the assumption players will miss one of their team's remaining games.)
Add in that they both play for playoff teams and George and Millsap look like favorites, with LaMarcus Aldridge a long shot to claim a spot and Davis probably on the outside looking in.
Prediction
First team: Kevin Durant | LeBron James
Second team: Kawhi Leonard | Draymond Green
Third team: Paul George | Paul Millsap
Centers: Does Davis belong?
Davis received votes at both positions last season, and there's a good case that he should be considered a center and not a forward.
Top candidates
Player WARP Proj. Vote%
D. Cousins 11.8 .460
A. Davis 11.2 .376
H. Whiteside 14.6 .329
D. Jordan 13.6 .285
A. Drummond 12.7 .257
P, Gasol 11.8 .248
According to NBAwowy.com, Davis played 1,173 of his 2,164 minutes -- 54 percent -- without one of the Pelicans' other center options (Alexis Ajinca, Omer Asik and Kendrick Perkins) alongside him.
Compared to centers, Davis' case is much stronger. Just two centers, Whiteside (12.0) and Jordan (11.3) have accumulated more WARP thus far. And Whiteside's All-NBA case isn't as strong as his WARP because the Heat haven't benefited from his presence as much as his box-score stats would suggest. Whiteside's plus-1.0 RPM is far worse than Davis' plus-2.7 mark.
If Davis is considered a center, I think he and Cousins would battle for the first team spot with DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond and possibly Pau Gasol in contention for a place on the third team.
Prediction
First team: DeMarcus Cousins
Second team: Anthony Davis
Third team: DeAndre Jordan
Thank you OKC
That makes the Rockets/Jazz game tomorrow night that much bigger. I'm glad I broke down and bought good tickets, I'm about to be acting a fool in the Toyota Center.
You're a jazz fan?
If so that mean we got all the fan bases on the coli?
who they gonna replace him with tho?
or does Iggy return to the starting lineup next year?
Batum, Deng, and Jeff and Gerald Green are all gonna be available
fukk jeff tho
NBA Free Agency 2016: The top players
kent bazemore is averaging better stats across the board in less minutes than bum ass barnes
barnes defense is trash and his offense is trash. anybody could replace him
kent bazemore is averaging better stats across the board in less minutes than bum ass barnes
barnes defense is trash and his offense is trash. anybody could replace him
I'd gladly take back Baze.....he's developed nicely...
It'll be interesting to see what the Warriors do with Barnes, especially if they end up winning the title and he plays heavy minutes in the postseason.
IDK what it is...This dude loooked like me back in college...now he is the most explosive the world has ever seen
They're probably gonna have to choose between him and Ezeli unless their owner is willing to be paying a shytload of luxury tax
Anyone who invests max-money in him is doomed. He sucks.
