I'm tryna have a sober weekend because I've had two vacations in three weeks and I need a break...it's tougher than I though. Figured I'd rate some of the recent rumored options and talk about their likelihood. Because Knicks news is pure speculation right now.
For now - it's PG options that have been reported...
#1 Jordan Clarkson -
Why it's my favorite option: He's young, a hard working PG and fits KP's time line best of all options. Even with us having to price out a match from the Lakers, he's likely the cheapest option or at least second cheapest whose name has been brought up. His playmaking took a backseat this season, but I think he has potential to be a primary ball handler with proper development and his shooting improved. The best part of Clarkson is that signing him leaves room to target the stronger position in this FA class; SG. A Clarkson signing should leave ample room to make a serious run at Fournier, Crabbe or possibly even Bazemore.
Odds - 10% - And that's probably wishful thinking boosting that percentage. Clarkson is the least likely to position us for an immediate playoff run which has been the focal point of our star, coach, GM and president's comments so far. He's the best long term option but he's a player who needs to grow to start for a contender. Add to that, he's an RFA who the Lakers intend to keep and the likelihood drops.
#2 - A D-Rose trade ONLY if the Bulls take back Calderon and only request second rounders as compensation -
Why it kinda makes sense: It's a one year rental that could appease the win-now crowd but leave us with massive cap next season. If D-Rose plays all season how he looked toward the end of this season, you actually have a pretty good team. Dumping Calderon is a bonus but you might be able to pull it off since you're still eating around 14 million dollars in added salary.
Odds - 0.001% - Then reality sets in and you realize that once the FA's are all signed, teams will be left behind with cap space and one of them will give up actual assets for a former MVP even if it is a rental. This is a pipe dream move that isn't even very appealing. But the other options suck imo.
#3 Conley Maxed out
Why it leaves room for cautious optimism: If Conley is healthy, we're a playoff team, I firmly believe that. So in terms of win-now moves, it's got the best chance at success. The problem is that it's a long term heart attack. His athleticism will fade with age and achilles issues are terrifying. On top of that with the 94 million dollar cap, he's starting at slightly over 26 million dollars with increases as he ages. If he can stay relatively healthy for 3 seasons, you could do a lot worse. I read an article recently that mapped out his overall health and it's actually been better than I thought, so I bumped him past Rondo.
Odds - 20% - I think we'll offer him a max and I don't think there will be 5 better options out there, hence a 1 in 5 shot. That's assuming the rumors that he's not excited about coming back to Memphis have any truth.
#4 Rondo 12.5 per
Why it's not the end of the world: It leaves 20+ million in cap space...that's the main reason. Rondo warrants a bit of optimism in so much as he actually shot the 3 ball well last season and there's a mutual respect between he and Melo. The negatives are well known. Rondo has become a piss poor defender, he has had attitude problems in the past and he's always been ball dominant (imho though, it's not the worst thing in the world to take the ball out of Melo's hands and leave decision making to others). Dude is older, has injury history and is tempermental. The positive, if you equate 12.5 in the new cap era to the past, it's barely more expensive than Calderon for a much better player (not because Rondo is great, but Calderon sucks).
Odds - 25% - I think if we want Rondo, we'll be able to sign him and Melo likes dude so there's a supporter in his corner. That said, Phil passed on him last season and hopefully one of the better options happens without this ever needing to be seriously entertained.
#5 The realistic Rose trades
Why it really is horrific: We need to keep our assets, period. So any trade for a rental of Rose that makes sense gives up assets we need. Even if it were to work out with Rose playing great, he's looking for a big contract in spite of serious injury concerns considering his past. It just doesn't make any sense long term to me.
Odds - If Phil's in control 1% if Dolan were to get involved 50% - Because Phil hasn't taken many long term risks and he hasn't taken any risks that would be this big yet. But Dolan...that dude always finds a way to crater any optimism so this would be the time to strike if the pattern held.
#6 The unknown move
Why it's honestly probably better than any option but Clarkson: Because those options are all mediocre or worse.
Odds - 40% - You know what...Phil has surprised us at damn near every turn. The KP pick didn't leak till a day before the draft; RoLo wasn't on anyone's radar with Monroe and Jordan available; Shump and Smith got dealt over a month before the deadline; Hornacek too and on and on. When he surprises us, it tends to be something we wind up appreciating.