The neighborhood he grew up in was always a bit rough around the edges, and it has frayed even more over the years, but Bryan Killian-Bey found reasons to smile as he drove through it on a recent winter day: his grandmother’s old, now-abandoned house and the school that used to be a hangout spot for the area’s kids.
But the smile fled as Killian-Bey, 59, steered his truck farther into the city’s core, which has rapidly declined during years of economic turmoil, leaving streets once lined with vibrant homes and businesses now riddled with empty lots. Without fail, he said, Democratic canvassers show up around election time vowing to improve conditions for him and his neighbors, but it never happens.
He voted for President Biden in 2020, but this time Killian-Bey says he and others in his predominantly Black neighborhood aren’t so sure. “I’m torn between voting and not voting at all. A lot of us are,” Killian-Bey said. “I don’t think Biden is it, but I don’t see what else is out there.” He wants Democrats to “give me substance. You can’t dangle carrots and assume we’ll vote for you just because we don’t like the other platform.”
Political analysts say Killian-Bey’s views illustrate a waning enthusiasm among Black voters, particularly Black men, toward Biden and the Democratic Party. A series of polls in recent months have alarmed party strategists and liberal organizers and reportedly frustrated the president, who is facing a tight race for reelection against former president Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner.
A New York Times-Sienna poll in late October found that 22 percent of Black voters in six battleground states, including Michigan, would support Trump if the general election were held today, while 71 percent said they would support Biden.
Trump won the support of just 8 percent of Black voters in the 2020 election and 6 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center’s validated voter study. Although few strategists believe Trump could get 20 percent of the Black vote in the next election, even a small uptick would spell trouble for Biden, especially in swing states with large shares of Black voters, such as Michigan, where Biden edged Trump 50.6 percent to 47.8 percent in 2020. A more realistic danger for Biden, political strategists say, is that dissatisfaction among some Black voters may drive them to sit out in November.
Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, said that while the polls do not mean the sky is falling for Biden’s campaign, “it just might be drizzling.”
He said conservative talking points have resonated with some Black voters who feel disillusioned or have economic grievances, even though Biden has made more significant gains in reducing unemployment and creating jobs in his first three years than Trump did, including for Black Americans.
“It’s speaking to this idea that Democrats haven’t done anything for you — they’ve let you down and taken you for granted,” Albright said. “But I always say in every piece of disinformation is a kernel of truth. They find that kernel, that grievance, and they feed on it.”
The Biden-Harris campaign and Democratic leaders have taken notice of the sinking enthusiasm among Black voters, particularly after a 10 percentage-point decline in Black voter turnout in the 2022 midterms compared with 2018. The campaign has accelerated its efforts to appeal to Black voters, including a pilot plan that uses digital messaging and “trusted messengers” to spread the word about Biden’s accomplishments, as well as a $25 million advertising campaign on Black and Hispanic media in swing states.
“We know we can’t take any voters for granted, especially Black voters, young voters, who’ve been a crucial bloc for the Biden-Harris coalition,” said Michael Tyler, communications director for the campaign. “We have work to do to remind these communities of what we’ve accomplished for them in the first three years.”
The administration says Biden has delivered for Black voters in numerous ways. The Black unemployment rate hit an all-time low of 4.7 percent last spring. The administration has created programs to boost historically Black colleges and Black-owned small businesses. The Justice Department has launched investigations into law enforcement agencies for systemic misconduct. Biden has diversified the courts in unprecedented ways.