Preserve The Iceberg, Don't Let Matty Ice Melt: The Official 2016 Atlanta Falcons Season Thread

[The ADD]

Coach Bro

Brothership

Looks like we are going to lose Kyle Shanahan next season. He's interviewing with 4 teams this week, good for him

good on him

 

[AVXL]

Looks like we are going to lose Kyle Shanahan next season. He's interviewing with 4 teams this week, good for him

Hopefully he doesn't go (and a year ago I wanted him out). LA, JAX aren't good situations. DEN is intriguing, I can't lie. But he'd be better off waiting a year and keeping his name out there. If he goes to a bum ass team he'all be fired in 2 years

 

[Nostalgic]

IMO I'd be a terrible move if Kyle went to DEN, Unless he would win about 4-5 SB's
in people eyes It would be viewed as ''Not good enough'' he would always be trying to out do his dads legacy there.

If Kyle does go what OC do you see replacing him on the Falcons.

 

[The ADD]

IMO I'd be a terrible move if Kyle went to DEN, Unless he would win about 4-5 SB's
in people eyes It would be viewed as ''Not good enough'' he would always be trying to out do his dads legacy there.

If Kyle does go what OC do you see replacing him on the Falcons.

Mike McCoy

 

[Brandeezy]

If Matt doesn't get MVP then it'll be a robbery

The Four Quarterbacks
QB QBR (Rank) G Cmp Att Comp% PsYds Yd/Att TD Int PsrRt

Rodgers 77.1 (4) 16 401 610 65.7% 4428 7.3 40 7 104.2
Carr 61.9 (16) 15 357 560 63.8% 3937 7.0 28 6 96.7
Ryan 83.4 (1) 16 373 534 69.9% 4944 9.3 38 7 117.1
Brady 83.1 (2) 12 291 432 67.4% 3554 8.2 28 2 112.2

Carr, unfortunately for Raiders fans who miss him dearly right about now, is the easiest person to wipe from the voting. His numbers pale in comparison to the rest of the group's, and while he deserves credit for producing seven fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives this year, he's one behind Matthew Stafford in each category, and Stafford is not receiving much MVP support. (Not anymore, at least.) It's also tough to build the case around Carr coming up with big moments in the clutch when he had his worst game of the season against the Chiefs in that critical "Thursday Night Football" matchup in Week 14. Carr was also pressured on just 19 percent of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in football. He had an excellent season, but it's hard to really make a case that he's the best of these four quarterbacks.

The next person to remove from the list is tougher. Brady's candidacy is hardly anything surprising, but he has the most obvious flaw to overcome, having missed a full quarter of the season thanks to his suspension. As a result, he's way behind in terms of volume; Rodgers has thrown 178 more passes than Brady and produced 874 additional yards along with 12 more touchdowns. Brady is even further behind Ryan, who has 1,390 additional passing yards and 10 more touchdowns.

Instead, the argument for Brady has to revolve around the idea that he's been better on a snap-by-snap basis than the other quarterbacks. It's true that he has protected the football, throwing 28 touchdowns and just two picks, the best touchdown-interception ratio in league history, but that stat seems less impressive when you remember Brady is breaking a record held by Nick Foles. Brady's 0.5 percent interception rate is also great, but the difference between his interception total and that of Rodgers (seven) over a 610-pass season is four picks. Is that really enough to make up the gap between Brady and the, um, bunch?

Matt Ryan wasn't just incredibly good, he did it against tougher pass defenses than Brady or Rodgers faced. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Pro-football-reference.com found that the "value" of a typical interception in terms of field position is about 45 yards and built a formula called adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) to account for that figure. The value of a passing touchdown by this same measure is 20 yards. After filling in those values, Rodgers' typical pass has been worth an average of 8.1 AY/A. Brady is well ahead of him, at 9.3 AY/A. And Ryan is lapping them both, at 10.1 AY/A.

To be honest, this is where it gets hard to build suspense for the MVP vote. I don't really see a strong argument for either of the other quarterbacks to win over Ryan. Ryan has been more effective than Brady on a per-play basis by every metric besides interception rate and has done so while throwing 102 more pass attempts. Ryan also has played the league's toughest schedule of opposing defenses. Patriots fans may want to cling to the game-losing pick-two Ryan threw against the Chiefs, but there's more to quarterback play than avoiding interceptions. Brady has been brilliant, but Ryan has been more efficient, even while Julio Jones was on the sideline.

As for Rodgers, while there may be voters who see the future Hall of Famer putting the Packers on his back with his "run the table" comment and subsequent brilliant form, Ryan has been every bit as good over the same time frame. The Packers started their six-game winning streak that gave them the NFC North title in Week 12. Atlanta went 5-1 over that same stretch. Here's how Ryan and Rodgers performed over that span:

The "Run The Table" Stretch
Player Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/Att TD INT AY/A PsrRt QBR
Ryan 137 188 72.9% 1697 9.0 14 2 10.0 120.8 87.5
Rodgers 142 200 71.0% 1667 8.3 15 0 9.8 121.0 83.1
Ryan doesn't have the sexy 15-0 touchdown-interception ratio, but he has matched Rodgers stride for stride by creating more big plays on offense. And over the first 11 weeks of the season, Ryan blew Rodgers away:

The First 11 Weeks
Player Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/Att TD INT AY/A PsrRt QBR
Ryan 236 346 68.2% 3247 9.4 24 5 10.1 115.1 80.9
Rodgers 259 410 63.2% 2761 6.7 25 7 7.2 96.0 73.5

As I wrote in December, the Falcons quietly have one of the best offenses in recent memory, including what is likely the best first-down offense in NFL history. Nobody in the league has been better at getting chunks of yardage than Ryan, who has enjoyed playing behind the only line in football to make all 80 starts uninterrupted this season. The voters may fall for two of the game's biggest icons, but the evidence -- all apologies to the Cowboys' offensive line -- suggests that Ryan is the clear choice for 2016 MVP. I'll throw Rodgers a trophy for his furious end to the campaign.

Offensive Player of the Year winner: Aaron Rodgers

Most Valuable Player winner: Matt Ryan

 

[AtlienInTheGoodieMob]

IMO I'd be a terrible move if Kyle went to DEN, Unless he would win about 4-5 SB's
in people eyes It would be viewed as ''Not good enough'' he would always be trying to out do his dads legacy there.

If Kyle does go what OC do you see replacing him on the Falcons.

Mike Shula

 

[mattlanta]

Did anyone buy their playoff ticket yet? I live in CT and this will be the first Falcons game I've attended. I plan on flying down Friday, attending a Hawks game that night vs. the Celtics and then watching our Falcons win on Saturday. I was just wondering where I should buy my jersey though- should I get it at the stadium or should I just order it online?

 

[GlitchBoy]

 

[Black Andy Dwyer]

Morten Anderson was named a finalist for the 2017 NFL HOF

 

[Nostalgic]

Are Kyle And Matt Ryan on the same page?

We have our answer.

 

[AVXL]

FPI: NFC's best odds in Atlanta, not Dallas.
Believe it or not, ESPN's FPI gives the Falcons the best chance at winning the NFC Championship, at 45 percent, better than the Cowboys' 30 percent. FPI also gives them a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than Dallas

 

[Stone]

The more I think about it, the more I realize that if we play clean football like we have most of the season (only 11 turnovers) that we're the best team in the league.

 

[AVXL]

The more I think about it, the more I realize that if we play clean football like we have most of the season (only 11 turnovers) that we're the best team in the league.

Top 4 teams in TO margin, Chiefs (+16), Raiders (+16), Patriots (+12), Falcons (+11), playoff bound. Falcons tied Pats with NFL low 11 TOs

If we play our brand of football we're the best team in the league. GOAT offense with improving young defense

 

[Black Andy Dwyer]

I was trying to find it on their site, but the interview 92.9 The Game had with Dave Archer and Mike Vick was awesome. Vick was beyond humbled by the reception and has always considered Atlanta a 2nd home. He said the game against Carolina where he dove over the goal line was his favorite Dome memory

 

[Nostalgic]

I like Quinn's hat