the cac mamba
Veteran
you tell me, Professor dikkhead
POTUS or Prisoner; The '24 Trump Campaign Fvckery thread
- Thread starter the cac mamba
- Start date
you tell me, Professor dikkhead
Hood Critic
The Power Circle
Polling is not to be used as a prediction tool, this is why so many of you are upset with polling. Polling is a snapshot/point in time to identify where focus needs to be.
Piff Perkins
Veteran
True but if a poll shows drastic, historical shifts in American sentiment from week to week something is wrong. Instead of saying "this is an outlier" the editorial part of the polling platforms keep making these weird declarations of fact. We're told Biden is struggling with black voters based on one poll with outlier responses, and then when the same pollster finds Biden winning the black vote at high levels there is no editorial response. Where's the "Biden regaining ground amongst black voters" article? Oh, there is none? Because they fukked up and won't admit it.
What does it mean when we have months worth of snapshots and on actual election days they are wrong? Maybe people are changing their mind at the booth
It's a snapshot that's true but the issue is that we have no certainty that it's representative enough. If the bias of the poll have too many variables (age, gender, party affiliation, place to vote, ability to vote, months from election...), then how meaningful is that snapshot ?
Pollsters now say that they have bigger margins of error so they don't lose face. But unless the margin is very narrow then the poll becomes as reliable as a decision in a close boxing fight.
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Dameon Farrow
Superstar
No word on Haley's donors giving to Biden's campaign instead of Trumps, huh? Big shocker.
But polls
But polls
Speak on it breh.. @FAH1223 posting 10 polls back to back to back talkin bout it’s bad news for Biden but posting senate posts on swing states showing the Dems being upNo word on Haley's donors giving to Biden's campaign instead of Trumps, huh? Big shocker.
But polls
Poetical Poltergeist
Precise and cold hearted
Rut roh! Trump drools over how hot Kristi Gnome is, Tulsi likely punching the air RN
Trump gonna be fukking his VP in the white house. Imagine that scandal
Hood Critic
The Power Circle
They're supposed to be averaged considering they only encompass a specific group. For example, everybody will say the Coli HL poll had Biden winning by 10% all year but he only won by 2%, therefore the Coli HL poll must be trash because it was 8% off. But if you were to average the Coli HL, Coli TLR, Coli Booth, etc numbers, you would have gotten a better indicator.What does it mean when we have months worth of snapshots and on actual election days they are wrong? Maybe people are changing their mind at the booth
I'm far from a pollster apologist but I feel like people really just started paying attention to polls last general election but don't really understand them.
Hood Critic
The Power Circle
Chances are extremely likely that is a sh*tty poll all around. I'd immediately look up their pollster grade.
Hood Critic
The Power Circle
If the number of participants being polled does not equal the actual number of people who cast a vote, it will never be 100% representative.
Polls are done on specific swathes of people from voters to nonvoters, from Ds to Rs, from poor to rich, so on and so forth - there is no such thing as an all encompassing poll. That's why you have to average those results to get a better picture.
Campaigns are not looking at any of these polls and thinking they have it in the bag because a couple polls show they're up.
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Piff Perkins
Veteran
NYT/Sienna is considered a good poll yet they're doing this too. I was referencing one of their recent polls, where their main pollster guy (Nate Cohn) wrote an article about Biden's troubles with black voters based on a clear outlier. And then when the next poll showed Biden back to normal democrat levels with black voters, there was no "Biden bounces back" analysis. I'm not saying that article should be written, I'm saying the entire thing is based on a false premise. NYT has also shown Trump only down with women voters by a couple points. It's clear they are making terrible samples, but using them to dictate narratives.
Exactly… GOP is clearly underwater with white women, it’s beyond the scale at this point…
When Dobbs decision was handed down the gop didn’t realize how bad they lose the white woman vote… it’s been that way since and it surely ain’t letting up anytime soon
T’Challa’s Heir
Superstar
I’d say 2016 and 2020 are evidence of how badly polls are off the mark. 2016 had Hillary w/ a fairly comfortably win. 2020 had Biden w/ a blowout, but dude “barely” won across 3 critical states.