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Derek Lee

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22. Tony Bradley, Thunder (restricted)
Tony Bradley has bounced around over the past year, but he’s pretty good for what he is. The 23-year-old shoots 65 percent from the field every year and has one of the best rebound rates at his position (18.6 percent last year, and that was actually a career low). I don’t think it makes sense for the Thunder to pick up his $5.3 million qualifying offer, but given the rebuild in Oklahoma City, it does make a lot of sense to return a young center who has shown NBA-caliber production.

23. Gorgui Dieng, Spurs
The theoretical premise of Gorgui Dieng is pretty strong — he’s a good defender who is capable in switches and also shot 42.9 percent on 3s last year. However, his shot release is slow enough that it threatens the shot clock, so he only launched 70 total 3s last season, while inside the arc he lacks the explosion around the basket to be a threatening finisher.

Nonetheless, Dieng quietly posted a career-high 19.2 PER last season and should be in line for a back-end rotation spot this summer. BORD$ rates him as a minimum guy here, but he might be able to move a bit higher in the food chain.

24. Boban Marjanovic, Mavs
Everyone’s favorite teammate showed off his situational usefulness in the playoffs, starting against the small-ball Clippers while anchoring a Dallas zone. Teams that are willing to either play zone or an extreme version of drop coverage can still get a lot of mileage from Boban Marjanovic because he’s a huge target around the basket who also has shooting touch. Marjanovic has quietly scored and rebounded at a monumental rate throughout his career (31.0 points and 20.7 boards per 100!), a fact which is mostly masked by his short-minute stints.

That’s likely to be the case again this year, but Marjanovic has value as a third center for use in the right matchups and should find a market at the minimum or the biannual exception.

25. JaVale McGee, Nuggets
It’s been a truly bizarre few months for JaVale McGee. First, the Nuggets gave up two second-round picks to acquire him for 34 playoff minutes, nearly all of which were in garbage time. Then the U.S. Olympic team came calling for reasons that still have me scratching my head.

McGee is 33 but still can run and jump; he actually set a career high in rebound rate last season at 19.8 percent. While his decision-making at the offensive end can be bewildering and he can get lost on defense, McGee’s size and athleticism in the middle make an impact when he’s going well. That should be enough to net him another deal for the minimum, whether in Denver or someplace else.

26. DeMarcus Cousins, Clippers
Boogie isn’t quite a stretch big (34.1 percent career from 3) and isn’t quite good enough on the block to justify playing through him, and defensively, his lack of mobility is a major issue. That said, even after repeated injuries, he showed enough skill level to score and rebound at a healthy clip (24.4 points, 17.7 boards per 100), and he can be surprisingly spry with his hands poke-checking dribblers (2.3 steals per 100).

The total package is probably worth another year on a minimum deal as a team’s third center. The defensive issues are too serious to warrant a greater role, and at 31 in August with his injury issues, he doesn’t make sense for a non-contender.

27. Dewayne Dedmon, Heat
Dewayne Dedmon sat much of the year after he was waived and stretched by Detroit but joined Miami late in the season and was very effective over 16 games with some eye-popping per-minute stats (26.7 points and 20.3 boards per 100 possessions). Dedmon plays hard, but as he gets into his 30s, his defensive shortcomings have become more problematic; in particular, his foul rate has gone through the roof the past two seasons (8.5 and 8.3 per 100). Additionally, the 3-point shot he used in his best years in Atlanta has deserted him, leaving him more reliant on rim runs and post-ups.

Dedmon did enough last year to warrant a minimum or biannual exception deal as a backup or third center and in particular could be a strong candidate to re-up with Miami once the Heat have finished using their cap space.

28. Aron Baynes, Raptors (non-guaranteed)
Aron Baynes has a non-guaranteed contract for $7.35 million and most assuredly will be waived before it guarantees, affording Toronto a big chunk of cap space. He’s 35 and had a disappointing 2020-21, to say the least, but Baynes still has fans in the league because of his physicality, occasional slingshot 3s from the corner and an impressive beard. He should be able to stick around as a third center on a minimum deal.

29. Bismack Biyombo, Hornets
Bismack Biyombo can’t shoot and might have the worst hands in the league, a combination that makes him a wee bit of a liability at the offensive end. He’s always made up for that with his energy, smarts and athleticism at the defensive end, but last season saw him post a career-low rebound rate and seemingly a bit less athletic juice at age 28. He’s likely looking at a minimum deal as a third center.

30. Isaiah Hartenstein, Cavs (player option)
I’m mildly bullish on the 23-year-old Isaiah Hartenstein, who has shown some real juice as a rim runner and finisher around the basket and rebounds at a high rate. His shooting touch is the other interesting piece of this; he’s been a reluctant launcher as a pro but showed some potential in this area as a teenager.

Hartenstein has declined his player option for 2021-22, sources tell our Shams Charania, but I’d suspect he’ll be back in Cleveland on a low-dollar deal, where he can continue developing with the rest of the Cavs’ young core.

31. Moritz Wagner, Magic
A stretch five with a career 31.5 percent mark from 3 rarely faces a worthy free-agent market, and Wagner won’t be the exception. It doesn’t help that he’s more or less roadkill on defense, with a desperate penchant for taking charges as his only means of resistance. After three NBA seasons, it appears the Berlin product’s likely end game is going back to Europe.

32. Luke Kornet, Celtics
The Green Kornet is a 7-2 stretch big who hasn’t provided enough stretch (32.8 percent career from 3) to offset his lack of mobility at the defensive end. It doesn’t help that he rebounds like a guard, with just a 9.4 percent career rebound rate. Kornet is probably looking at a non-guaranteed minimum deal, and his next move might be overseas.

33. Harry Giles, Blazers
Portland’s dice roll on Harry Giles as a third center failed to pay off, as he shot just 43.3 percent from the field and couldn’t stem Portland’s bleeding at the defensive end. Giles is only 23, but at this point, he may need to head overseas to restore his value.

34. Udonis Haslem, Heat
Udonis Haslem is basically an assistant coach at this point; he hasn’t played more than a hundred minutes in a season since 2016-17 but keeps re-upping on one-year deals for the minimum. Last season he played just three minutes for Miami and, hilariously, picked up a technical foul (and scored four points!). He has no market outside Miami but look for another one-year deal with the Heat.

35. Ed Davis, Timberwolves
After back-to-back disappointing seasons in Utah and Minnesota, Ed Davis’ career may be on life support. A badly undersized five at 6-9, 218, he needed to offset the disadvantage with energy and athleticism, and that may be waning at 32.

36. Cristiano Felicio, Bulls
Yes, Bulls fans, it’s finally over. No, I don’t expect Cristiano Felicio to be in the NBA this year. But while we’re here, can we discuss the fact that the Bulls never tried to sign anybody else into this roster spot at the end of last year? What was that about?

Related reading
Top point guards by BORD$ projections
Top shooting guards by BORD$ projections
Top small forwards by BORD$ projections
Top power forwards by BORD$ projections
John Hollinger’s Top 70 players in the NBA Draft

(Photo of Montrezl Harrell and Richaun Holmes: Hector Amezcua / Associated Press)
 

lib123

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John Hollinger’s 2021 NBA free-agency center rankings by BORD$: Starters? Yes. Stars? Not so much

John Hollinger Jul 23, 2021
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The free-agent center market isn’t exactly star-studded this year, but it makes up in quantity what it lacks in quality. At the top, at least five starting-caliber players make up the cream of the crop, while at the bottom, as ever, a surfeit of 7-footers are looking to hang on to back-end roster spots on minimum deals.

This is part of our series that will break down every position in the free-agent market, and of course, any examination of free agency starts with one question: What, exactly, are these players worth on a contract? And which ones should teams target first?

To help answer that question, I have a tool called BORD$ (Big Ol’ Rating Dollars), and it’s designed to answer a simple question: How much value can we expect a given player to deliver for next season? I based this on two variables: the expected quality of the players’ minutes, and how many minutes we’d expect the player to play on an average team.

A complete summary of BORD$ is still available here, although I tweaked some of the input variables since a year ago. I outlined those changes here, where I also go into the top 20 overall players in this free-agent market.

In the case of centers, the top player is a guy who didn’t get much ink — Richaun Holmes of Sacramento — but is a good player at the right age. At least five other potential starters dot the market, but it falls off quickly after that.

Let’s break it down:

Tier 1: Max players
Nobody

Tier 2: More than midlevel, less than max
1. Richaun Holmes, Kings: $18,269,033 (10th overall)
This number is going to be a deeply troubling one for Kings fans because Sacramento only has early Bird rights on Richaun Holmes and thus can only offer him a contract beginning at about $11 million a year. The irony, of course, is that this is only the case because Sacramento signed Holmes to such a great contract in the first place; had the Kings overpaid him originally, the cap rules would make it much easier to keep him. Even when the Kings win, somehow they lose.

Sacramento only has two ways around this. The first would be to trim several million in cap room, possibly by trading Buddy Hield or Harrison Barnes, and then re-sign Holmes with cap space. The second, sneakier way, would be to sign Holmes to a two-year, $20 million deal with a second-year player option and then pay him more when they have full Bird rights on him a year from now. (The Kings and Holmes’ reps would have to have some kind of understanding about what might happen next summer, which is technically illegal and I personally never would have done, but I’ve heard stories of other people doing it.)

The center market will be interesting in general, and only a few teams have glaring openings, but Holmes makes a lot of sense for Charlotte and Toronto in particular, and the fact that teams know they can go over the top of any Kings offer should make him an attractive target in the opening minutes of free agency.

2. Jarrett Allen, Cavs (restricted): $16,013,853 (12th overall)
Again, the decision to pay Jarrett Allen is based more on his future than his present, which is why the 23-year-old is likely to do better than his projection. On a four-year deal that pays him until he’s 26, it doesn’t seem crazy to get in the $20 million a year range, especially if there are competing offer sheets.

Those sheets might not be forthcoming immediately due to the perception that the Cavs will match any reasonable offer. That could change, however, if Cleveland selects USC’s Evan Mobley with the third pick in the draft.

3. Andre Drummond, Lakers: $15,099,657 (13th overall)
I think this valuation is on the high side, but it’s also pretty team-specific. Andre Drummond to me has a lot more value on a middling-to-bad team than on a good one because he can inhale offensive rebounds and take on some offensive responsibility in the former case. It’s easy to forget, but he was pretty good at the start of the season in Cleveland. Then by the playoffs, he was … less good.

As for returning to the Lakers, that seems a dead letter if Drummond wants to get anywhere close to this market value. The best he could do is sign a two-year deal for the full midlevel exception (MLE) with a second-year player option; he’d then have the option to opt out and re-up for more money in 2022-23 with early Bird rights. Alas, even doing that would require the Lakers to let Alex Caruso and Dennis Schröder walk to fit Drummond below the tax apron.

Besides, Drummond doesn’t need the Lakers to get that deal; he can sign it with darn near anybody since so many teams will have access to their full MLE this offseason. That’s exactly what Serge Ibaka and Montrezl Harrell did a year ago, and I think that’s a realistic end game for Drummond this time around.

4. Kelly Olynyk, Rockets: $14,198,223 (15th overall)
Hey, remember him? After the Heat traded him for Victor Oladipo, Kelly Olynyk was low-key quite good for a Rockets team that otherwise was quite bad. While he’s not for everybody given his defensive limitations, Olynyk takes charges, can play some four and has the offensive versatility to function either as a role player with starters or as a fulcrum with the second unit.

The teams that are likely to value him most, however, are also good enough that they aren’t using cap room to sign a player like Olynyk. That could cap his functional market at the midlevel exception unless he goes the route of signing a one-year overpay in Houston and volunteering himself as a midseason trade chip.

5. Daniel Theis, Bulls: $12,462,489 (20th overall)
Daniel Theis is a valuable player and has been nearly his entire career, but as a good-not-great center, he seems like a prime candidate to get squeezed in this free-agent market. That is particularly true if the Bulls decide to use cap space to renegotiate and extend with Zach LaVine because re-upping in Chicago via his Bird rights is Theis’ best (and perhaps only) mechanism to get more than midlevel exception money.

Theis and other bigs of his ilk face another problem getting paid this year because several of the teams with a need at center also are facing deep issues with the luxury tax and won’t even have access to their midlevel exception. As a result, look for several centers to go for the time-honored maneuver of signing a two-year deal with a player option and hoping the market turns more favorable next summer.

Tier 3: Midlevel guys
6. Montrezl Harrell, Lakers (player option) $11,536,230
Montrezl Harrell’s decision on his player option is interesting because of the implication for the Lakers. His opting out of the final year of his deal at $9.7 million would allow the Lakers to potentially use their full midlevel exception on reinforcements while still remaining below the tax apron. However, if Harrell opts in, it all but forces the Lakers to trade him after his playing time shriveled toward the end of last season.

The bizarre part is that Harrell can still play; he’s just an unusual archetype to use in a playoff series because he depends on playing pick-and-roll offense and is a liability on defense. Teams needing more of a regular-season boost could find a lot of value here — I’m looking at you, Charlotte — making him one of the summer’s more interesting potential free agents. After last summer, the price is well-established at the full midlevel exception (MLE), although years remain a question.

7. Enes Kanter, Blazers: $11,485,358
This is an extremely generous valuation for the all-offense, no-defense Enes Kanter, although the numbers would suggest that his defensive vulnerabilities were far from the only reason Portland struggled on that end. Kanter can at least battle physically with bigger centers, making him a decent matchup option against the Joel Embiids and Jonas Valanciunases of the world, and offensively, he mashes smalls on switches and dominates on the glass.

Kanter signed for half this amount two years ago, and that’s likely where his market would end up again this time around — at the room exception or the taxpayer MLE. That team is unlikely to be Portland as the Blazers look to shore up one of the league’s leakiest defenses while simultaneously staring down tax issues.

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Enes Kanter and Isaiah Hartenstein are two options on the center market in the coming weeks. (Photo: Ken Blaze / USA Today)
8. Hassan Whiteside, Kings: $9,133,220
Well, BORD$ is keeping the faith. Hassan Whiteside signed a one-year minimum in Sacramento then hardly played for the Kings last season, so his market is going to be a fraction of this amount.

Whiteside led the league in block rate two years ago and annually has among the league’s highest rebound rates, but those stats overly flatter his impact. Too often his drop coverage just turns into a runway for opposing guards to get whatever shot they want. Offensively, he is pretty lethal in the paint area, although his per-minute production dropped a bit last season, but he struggles to play out of short rolls or the elbows.

Overall, Whiteside has the stats of a starter but not the eye test, but he still profiles as a good backup. Sacramento had a crowded frontcourt last year, but there are places Whiteside can help.

Thank you!
 

Derek Lee

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John Hollinger’s 2021 NBA free-agency point guard rankings by BORD$: Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry top a deep field

John Hollinger Jul 19, 2021

If you’re looking for a point guard, you chose the right year. As many as 10 starting-caliber point guards could be available in free agency, depending on options, including one surefire Hall of Famer, two recent All-Stars and a former MVP. The market has quality at almost every level too, with several quality backups also hitting free agency this summer.

This is part of our series that will break down every position in the free-agent market, and, of course, any examination of free agency starts with one question: What, exactly, are these players worth on a contract? And which ones should teams target first?

To help answer that question, I have a tool called BORD$ (Big Ol’ Rating Dollars), and it’s designed to answer a simple question: How much value can we expect a given player to deliver for next season? I based this on two variables: the expected quality of the players’ minutes and how many minutes we’d expect the player to play on an average team.

A complete summary of BORD$ is still available here, although I tweaked some of the input variables since a year ago. I outlined those changes here, where I also go into the top 20 overall players in this free-agent market.

In this case, the point guard market is led, obviously, by Phoenix’s Chris Paul, who may or may not become a free agent depending on how he handles his player option. He’s the only “max” guy who could be available. But with veterans such as Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley and Spencer Dinwiddie, and restricted free agents such as Lonzo Ball and Devonte’ Graham, there’s something there for everyone.

Let’s break it down:

Tier 1: Max players
1. Chris Paul, Suns (player option): $36,236,813 (second overall)
Paul has a lot of different ways to play his hand. However, his age puts a cap on the financial rewards because of the “over-38” rule in the collective bargaining agreement (CBA). Paul is 36 right now and would trigger the ”over-38” rule on any deal that goes beyond 2023-24, so he’s either looking at a two-year extension or opting out and signing a three-year deal.

If Paul opts out and signs a three-year deal with another team, the most he could make is $123 million. However, if he stays in Phoenix, he could sign for as much as $144 million over that time period.

Based strictly on BORD$, a deal like that may look like an overpay by Phoenix, especially since Paul will be getting into his late 30s. But given Phoenix’s position as a top contender (especially with the possibility of no Kawhi Leonard next year) and Paul’s obvious leadership of said team, this is one of the easier cases to justify paying above BORD$.

Tier 2: More than midlevel, less than max
2. Kyle Lowry, Raptors: $25,239,628 (fourth overall)
This is the strongest market ever for former Grizzlies point guards. As with Mike Conley below, age will be a factor: Kyle Lowry is 35, so we’re probably looking at a two-year deal in the $50 million range.

Lowry is an interesting case because it doesn’t make a ton of sense for Toronto to bring him back, and some of his strongest suitors are capped-out teams that would be looking at sign-and-trade possibilities. Philadelphia, most notably, could only acquire Lowry this way, and even at that would have to do some serious cap gymnastics to stay below the tax apron (teams completing a sign-and-trade must remain below the apron all season).

Even the room teams might want to play with the Raptors on a sign-and-trade. Miami, for example, can generate enough cap room to sign him outright for roughly his BORD$ number (the Heat can generate $24 million in room by declining options on Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala and letting Kendrick Nunn walk) but might be better served operating as an “over-the-cap” team and trading Dragic and Nunn for Lowry in a complex sign-and-trade.

So … expect this to get weird. Lowry will be a popular name but getting him to the most desired landing spots could prove tricky.

3. Mike Conley, Jazz: $24,495,329 (fifth overall)
Utah’s All-Star guard (man, I love typing that) heads into unrestricted free agency at the exact right time, bouncing back from an off year in 2019-20 and entering a market basically devoid of superstar talent. Conley turns 34 in October, so that will have to be priced in on a multiyear deal, but figures to cash in nicely.

The only question is where. With the Jazz facing a stiff luxury-tax payment to the league if they re-sign Conley at this market rate, there has been some speculation they might look for a cheaper alternative. In particular, Utah could end up $25 million into the tax for 2021-22 and owe a $65 million check to the league if it re-signs Conley at his BORD$ number and doesn’t make any corresponding moves to cut salary. Nonetheless, the default expectation is that Conley will return on either a two- or three-year deal.

4. Lonzo Ball, Pelicans (restricted): $22,483,316 (seventh overall)
There’s a lot of buzz that Lonzo Ball may be available, including recent reporting from The Athletic’s Shams Charania, and that could offer an opportunity to get a starting-caliber, 23-year-old point guard in the free-agent market for a needy team. Obviously, the Knicks are the first place to start because they’re always the first place to start with free agents, but teams like Chicago, Dallas, Miami or Toronto could all be players here. (And if we want to get crazy, how about a Lonzo-Lowry sign-and-trade?)

The idea that Ball can’t shoot is now officially tired; he made 37.8 percent of his 3s at a high volume and shot 78.1 percent from the line last year, and is at 35.3 percent career from 3. The bigger misgiving is about his shot creation inside the arc and his still-iffy ability to run pick-and-roll in the half court. Ball can guard the position and is gifted in transition, but he works best with another perimeter shot creator.

As a result, teams are likely to pump the brakes well short of a max contract on Ball. Something in the range of four years and $100 million seems a more likely ceiling given the offensive concerns; that’s already spendy for somebody who can be the third-best player on a good team but probably no more than that.

5. Devonte’ Graham, Hornets (restricted): $19,073,555 (9th overall)
People don’t really think about Devonte’ Graham much, and he got a bit lost at times last season with the productivity of the LaMelo Ball-Terry Rozier backcourt in Charlotte. Nonetheless, he’s a good guard who can shoot and pass, and at 26, the team signing him is likely buying the sweet spot of his career.

This number still feels a bit on the high side, but only a bit … like, you wouldn’t be shocked at all if he got three years, $55 million. The issue is that he’s a restricted free agent and the Hornets are in a very strong financial position to match offer sheets; the perception that Charlotte will match is likely to dry up his offer-sheet market.

On the other hand, it could provoke a team to offer something completely bananas in hopes of scaring the Hornets away. Such is the game with restricted free agency, where the rules tend to bifurcate the market into offer-sheet overpays and team-friendly underpays.

6. Spencer Dinwiddie, Nets (player option): $13,076,279 (18th overall)
Spencer Dinwiddie has one of the more fascinating free-agent trajectories this offseason. For starters, he has a player option for $12.3 million for next season. While it’s unlikely he picks it up, it is theoretically possible he could do an “extend-and-trade” starting from that number that would allow the Nets to move him to another team and get something back.

Less fancifully, there is the question of Dinwiddie’s value if he signs with another team outright. Coming off a partial ACL tear and having already torn an ACL in college, how much should teams discount his potential production at age 28? Is he worth paying as a leading man, or is he better off in a sixth-man role?

He’ll be further down the list after Conley and Lowry for teams shopping in a strong point guard market but will likely cost less. Dinwiddie averaged 20.6 points a game in the Before Times of 2019-20 but only shoots 31.8 percent from 3 for his career and plays more to score than pass. Can you live with that for, say, three years and $40 million?

7. T. J. McConnell, Pacers: $12,171,529 (21st overall)
T.J. McConnell was low-key really good as a spark off the bench for Indiana last season, leading the league in steal rate by a wide margin and, more surprisingly, racking up 58.3 percent true shooting despite his lack of a 3-point shot.

At 29, this is probably about as good as it gets, and the question is whether that’s good enough to pay him starter money. I’m guessing his market ends up slightly lower than this, and teams signing him would do so as a high-level backup. A return to Indy is certainly possible, although the Pacers are close enough to the tax line that they can likely only keep one of their second-unit “Mcs” (McConnell or Doug McDermott).

8. Alex Caruso, Lakers: $12,154,644 (22nd overall)
MVP chants from Staples Center aside, Alex Caruso is actually underrated in some respects. He’s one of the best defensive guards in the league, and defense at the guard position tends to get massively underpaid. Regarded as a non-shooter, he upped his number to 40.1 percent from 3 last year and is at 37.7 percent career, although admittedly on low volume.

Caruso can be a little wild on the ball and thrives best in a combo role, which as with McConnell above may leave teams skittish about paying him starter money. Caruso also is one of several complicated decisions facing the Lakers this offseason. They have full Bird rights, so paying him isn’t the issue, but re-signing him would likely push the Lakers past the apron and take their full midlevel exception and sign-and-trade possibilities out of play.

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Alex Caruso is just one of many roster decisions facing the Lakers in the coming weeks. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
 

Derek Lee

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Tier 3: Midlevel
9. Kendrick Nunn, Heat (restricted): $11,467,484
Miami’s guard presents an interesting case because his cap hold is only $4.4 million, thus giving the Heat a fairly strong incentive to use the rest of their cap room and then re-sign Kendrick Nunn. On the other hand, one of the Heat’s primary targets is likely Lowry, and it would seemingly make little sense to pay Nunn starter-level money to be his caddy; using cap space and then paying both Nunn and Duncan Robinson (who has the same low cap hold) could also vault Miami into the luxury tax.

Rival teams know that there are scenarios where the Heat wouldn’t be able to keep Nunn and are monitoring this situation; Nunn can be a little iffy defensively and a little shoot-first for the liking of some, but he turns 26 in August and shot a staggering-for-a-small-guard 58.3 percent on 2s last year. He’s also an awesome foul shooter (88.8 percent career) who could better leverage that by drawing more fouls.

10. Dennis Schröder, Lakers: $11,360,013
If Dennis Schröder really turned down a four-year, $80 million extension offer from the Lakers, this might prove an expensive mistake. He proved a high-level sixth man in Oklahoma City but struggled as a starter with the Lakers and is likely to settle in at a dollar value a bit above the midlevel exception.

He’s 27, so the age risk isn’t prominent yet, but three years and $35 million sounds about right. However, this could also end up in a “bet-on-yourself” situation where Schröder opts for a one-year deal with a player option so he can try again next year.

11. Derrick Rose, Knicks: $10,071,347
Derrick Rose seems like a safe bet to re-up in New York, especially given the peculiarity that his cap hold will only be $9.99 million (120 percent of his previous salary), but the Knicks can pay him up to $13.44 million this season via early Bird rights (175 percent of his previous salary). New York will have max cap room with or without Rose, and the fit between player, city and coach obviously seems to be working, so it seems like a two-year deal in the $20-25 million range would make sense for everybody.

12. Reggie Jackson, Clippers: $9,127,064
The BORD$ formula did not include playoffs or Jackson’s numbers would likely be higher. Either way, he presents an interesting conundrum for the Clippers, who only have early Bird rights on Jackson and thus could not pay him more than an estimated $11 million next year. (The exact figure will be determined at the start of free agency; it’s 105 percent of the league’s average salary.)

Jackson will be a popular target for teams needing guard help after his dismemberment of the Jazz in Game 6 of the conference semifinals in particular. He shot 43.3 percent from 3 in 2020-21 and showed more on-ball zip than any time since he started having knee problems in Detroit. Buyers should beware that he’s 31, but it appears “Mr. June” has earned himself a multiyear deal for the midlevel at the very least.

13. Goran Dragic, Heat (team option): $7,306,905
Miami has a team option for $18 million on Goran Dragic that it seems almost certain to decline unless it’s needed as a salary match in a trade. That in itself seems fairly unlikely, as the Heat can generate roughly $24 million in cap room by declining options on Dragic and Andre Iguodala and waiving the non-guaranteed Omer Yurtseven. (While we’re here: Raise your hand if you knew there was somebody named Omer Yurtseven on Miami’s roster.)

As for The Dragon, he’s 35 and suffered through a middling season after looking reborn in the 2020 bubble. At this point, he probably rates more as a plus-backup than a starter. Nevertheless, he should have a lot of interest at the MLE price point, especially since so many teams have access to their full midlevel this year.

14. Patty Mills, Spurs: $7,259,265
Patty Mills turns 33 in August, and his production took a step back this year, but in a league where shooting never goes out of style, there is likely to be demand for his services. Mills isn’t a true point guard, but his manic off-ball movement and long-range shooting ability stretch defenses without the dribble. At his age, he’s probably looking at a one- or two-year deal, and with the Spurs rebuilding, he’s probably looking at a new team as well.

Tier 4: More than minimum, less than midlevel
15. Cory Joseph, Pistons (non-guaranteed): $6,312,873
Cory Joseph is under contract with Detroit next year for $12.6 million but only $2.4 million of that is guaranteed. The Pistons have cap-room scenarios if they waive the non-guaranteed deals of Joseph and Rodney McGruder. However, doing so still likely leaves them with only low-teens room: Enough to outbid teams with the midlevel but not enough for another Jerami Grant-type swing.

Nonetheless, from a strict value proposition, it’s hard to justify Joseph at $12.6 million on a rebuilding team unless his salary can be used in a trade, so the odds would seem to favor Detroit waving him.

If so, Joseph would become one of the more desired backup point guard options because of his defense and steady handle, even if his shooting can make him a liability at the playoff level.

16. Raul Neto, Wizards: $6,252,220
Raul Neto, minimum guy, turned into Raul Neto, rotation guy, last season by knocking down 39.0 percent of his 3s and amping up his usual solid defense with one of the league’s top steal rates. A low-usage role in Washington worked well for him, as he had struggled as a lead shot creator but thrived playing off Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook.

That said, this valuation seems at the very high side of what a team should look at paying Neto; he’s 28 and coming off a career year and offers limited shot creation. His best fit is likely a return to Washington at something of a raise; the Wizards have no Bird rights on him, and the money is tight due to luxury-tax concerns, but they could offer the biannual exception or a piece of the full MLE.

17. Vasa Micic, Efes Pilsen
One of the best guards in Europe, Vasa Micic’s rights are owned by the Oklahoma City Thunder after he was originally drafted by Philadelphia in 2015. BORD$ doesn’t have a value on him since he’s an overseas player, but I would put him in this range if he decided to cross the pond.

Micic is 27 and would seem primed for a move; however, he just signed a rich contract extension with Efes. While the deal has an NBA opt-out, the dollars make it more difficult to blast him out of Europe in the near future. Surely it would seem unlikely that move would happen with rebuilding Oklahoma City, but if they trade his rights to another team, then Micic becomes a name to watch.

18. Ryan Arcidiacono, Bulls (team option): $4,585,376
Arch is more of a minimum-ish guy for me as a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none combo guard, but this projection isn’t outlandish considering he’s produced reasonably well whenever given the opportunity.

Chicago has a $3 million team option on Arcidiacono, and the Bulls should probably pick it up considering they won’t need the cap room. He’s a low-usage player who fouls too much, but he can make open shots, distributes the ball and plays decent defense. He’s a useful fourth or fifth guard at that price.

19. Saben Lee, Pistons (restricted) $4,031,522
A second-round two-way who surprisingly left Vanderbilt early, Saben Lee was a low-key success story in Detroit in his rookie year. Scouts knew the 22-year-old Lee had athletic burst, but he surprised by toning down the wildness and working better as a distributor in his rookie season.

With more than three assists for every turnover and the speed to turn the corner, Lee only needs to tighten up his shooting and improve his shot mix (soooo many floaters and pull-ups) to stick as a rotation guard in the Pistons’ rebuild. Despite the valuation above, Lee’s pre-draft pedigree is likely to work against him, and so it seems unlikely this ends in a bidding war. The Pistons may be able to lock him up on a franchise-friendly multiyear deal as he develops.

20. Cameron Payne, Suns: $3,932,484
Since this rating tracks multiple years, it may be weighing Cameron Payne’s previous failures too heavily. Certainly his 2020-21 warrants a steeper payday: He shot 44.0 percent from 3 in 2020-21 with a 17.4 PER, and while he’s had some ups and downs in the postseason, he had a 29-point, 9-assist Game 2 of the Western Conference finals. Similar to the Clippers’ situation with Reggie Jackson, the Suns have early Bird rights on Payne and can pay him up to the 120 percent of the league average salary, which should be about $11 million. That shouldn’t be a problem in this case, as Payne’s projected salary figures to come in lower than that. I suspect he’ll have considerable interest at or near the midlevel exception, and that the Suns would be pretty motivated to bring him back for another run at the ring.

21. Jordan McLaughlin, Timberwolves (restricted): $3,182,522
Jordan McLaughlin has spent the past two seasons on two-way deals in Minnesota despite providing some pretty solid evidence that he is at least a back-end rotation-caliber point guard. In his two pro seasons, he’s shot 36.9 percent from 3 and averaged nearly four assists for every turnover. He’s small and can get swallowed up around the basket, but for a little guy, he does a good job fighting for rebounds and will get his hands on balls (2.6 steals per 100 career).

Presumably, he’ll be a restricted free agent again and may end up in another summer face-off with the Wolves. However, with Minnesota just inches from the luxury-tax line, even a mild offer sheet from another team might earn him his wings.

Tier 5: Minimum guys
22. Lou Williams, Hawks
The advanced metrics have always been much lower on Lou Williams than his reputation in the league because he gives back as much on defense as he adds on offense. He turns 35 in October as well, so the age adjustment for BORD$ isn’t helping him either.

The bigger issue is that the two main ratings used to build BORD$ rate Williams as a rock-bottom defender, and while he still provides some offensive juice, his production has definitely taken a dip too. Williams had three straight years with PERs above 20 in his Sixth Man of the Year prime; last year that fell to 14.0.

The cap angle here is that the Hawks do have Bird rights on Williams, so re-signing him instead of using their MLE on a backup point guard gives them free money. If they’re comfortable bringing him back, it would allow Atlanta to use its MLE on another wing player.

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Will Lou Williams’ age affect his market? (Brett Davis / USA Today)
 

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23. Ish Smith, Wizards
Ish Smith is 33, barely hits 6-0 on a humid day and can’t shoot, so it’s amazing he’s carved out an 11-year career out of pure speed. He had an off year in 2020-21, and BORD$ downgraded him accordingly between that and his age.

However, the Wizards also had him off the ball a lot more last season because of the addition of Westbrook, and that doesn’t play to Smith’s strengths. I actually wonder if he could rebound a bit in a different role and provide some value as a fourth guard on a one-year deal.

24. Frank Ntilikina, Knicks (restricted)
It seems hugely unlikely that the Knicks bring back Frank Ntilikina after he hardly played last season. The French guard has shown flashes as a defender but struggles to create separation on offense and is just average as a shooter, helping him achieve the difficult feat of shooting 19.4 percent on 2-pointers last season. At 23 years old, the former lottery pick would make a good reclamation project for a rebuilding team.

25. Jeff Teague, Bucks
Jeff Teague, 33, has enjoyed a renaissance of quasi-usability in these Finals, as he still retains enough quickness to pressure ballhandlers and has played better offensively as a Buck than he did in Boston. He would be a reasonable addition as a third point guard next year for a team that wanted a veteran at the end of the bench.

26. Elfrid Payton, Knicks
Elfrid Payton followed up a decent 2019-20 with an indecent 2020-21; Payton increased his shot attempts dramatically and reduced his assist rate by half, and if you’ve ever seen him shoot, you know that’s not a great tradeoff. His 47.0 and 47.8 true shooting marks the past two seasons are indicative of the struggle, and by the postseason, he was basically unplayable.

Payton is 27 and has size and athleticism on his side, but as a non-shooter, he’s always going to be a tough player to shoehorn into a winning team’s rotation.

27. Dennis Smith, Jr., Pistons (restricted)
Detroit isn’t going to qualify him obviously (his qualifying offer is $7.7 million), but Dennis Smith had some promising stretches last season and finished with a 3-1 assist-turnover rate. To date, he’s been undermined by an inability to convert shots inside the arc, but at 23, something still may be salvaged here.

28. Brad Wanamaker, Hornets
You can’t shoot 18.8 percent from 3 and stay on the floor in today’s NBA. Brad Wanamaker is a solid defender and has some craft around the basket, but his shooting numbers from last year rendered him unplayable. At 32, he’s not exactly oozing with upside either, but one has to think his numbers will recover a bit next year and allow him to provide value as a fifth guard.

29. Mike James, Nets
Mike James had his moments after coming over from Europe in the spring, as a small shoot-first guard with enough quickness to get to his spots. The issue with James is that he isn’t quite efficient enough to justify his aggression, with a career TS% of just 47.2 that includes last season’s 48.1 mark in Brooklyn.

30. Brandon Goodwin, Hawks (restricted)
It seems unlikely the Hawks will qualify him after Brandon Goodwin shot 37.7 percent overall in 620 minutes last year. A small guard who can score and has a good first step, he’ll need to shoot more consistently to lock down a roster spot for next year.

31. Matthew Dellavedova, Cavaliers
Delly missed most of last season in concussion protocol and already has a deal in Australia, although reportedly it has an NBA out. It seems like we may have seen the last of him.

(Photo by Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)
 

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Gators LB Ventrell Miller’s legacy year starts with challenge from former All-American Brandon Spikes: ‘You’ve gotta be a badass’

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By G. Allan Taylor Aug 10, 2021
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GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Ventrell Miller was aching, physically and emotionally, ignoring his phone as it pulsed with texts and calls. The previous night, while facing Alabama for the SEC championship, he injured his ankle, and Florida’s middle linebacker and leading tackler refused to give up on the game. He welcomed doctors injecting him with a shot of “some numbness stuff,” and for a while, the pain was gone. So was Miller’s ability to cut, run and explode. He wound up playing 47 snaps, only to discover what many able-bodied defenders already learned — that Alabama’s offense essentially was unstoppable. The Tide racked up 605 yards and outgunned the Gators 52-46.

Now in the Sunday aftermath, Miller sank into self-imposed isolation. The painkiller had worn off and his ankle throbbed, the pain worsened by recalling a blur of plays when his defense missed its moment. One more third-down stop, one less ill-timed penalty, one nanosecond of quicker anticipation, and Florida might be SEC champ.

For hours Miller stewed over the what-ifs, until a door knock broke the solitude.

Linebackers coach Christian Robinson, unable to reach Miller, had left the football offices and driven over for a face-to-face. What transpired was the most meaningful in a thread of conversations they shared across three seasons together.

“You tasted what it’s like to be in that game, and you know how much effort it took to get there,” Robinson told him. “Now you’re upset, you’re down about it, but tell me: Was it not worth it to be there?”

Before leaving, the coach reminded Miller: “You have another opportunity next season.”

A 10-day run-up to the Cotton Bowl didn’t give the ankle injury enough time to heal, but Miller — projected as a middle-round NFL pick — informed coaches he was coming back for his fifth season. There was more business to handle. He didn’t want his final game as a Gator to be that loss in Atlanta, hobbling around on a defense that gave up 52 points.

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Ventrell Miller lines up for drills during the Gators’ first day of fall practices on Friday. (Courtney Culbreath / UAA Communications)
‘Alabama was beatable’
Miller’s No. 51 jersey carries a burden of proof at Florida, still synonymous with two-time All-American linebacker Brandon Spikes, who played on national championship teams in 2006 and 2008 before becoming a second-round draft pick.

“If you put that number on,” Spikes said, “you’ve gotta be a badass.”

Twelve years removed from his college career, which also included the Gators’ last SEC title, Spikes remains emotionally invested watching his alma mater play. He was incensed watching last year’s defense give up 35 points or more six times.

“I still love and support the Gators, but we don’t rock like that,” he said. “It’s embarrassing to see the defense giving up 500 yards, 600 yards. How do you even make it to the SEC championship playing that bad?”

Spikes asked for permission to speak with Miller this summer, and Robinson happily facilitated it, welcoming another voice. When Spikes made a swing through Gainesville during conditioning drills, the old badass came out firing.

He told Miller: “Every night you lay your head down, you should think, ‘My unit was the reason we don’t have a championship.’ And you know it’s the truth because that night in Atlanta, Alabama was beatable.”

Miller made the fourth-most solo stops in the SEC (52) as a junior, his second year as a starter. He recorded 7.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, and was the only member of the Gators defensive front who consistently graded out highly. His 15 tackles at Ole Miss had Spikes tweeting, “I think Miller can be better than me.”

But Spikes expected more disruptive plays, particularly in pivotal situations, from the guy commanding the defense. He wanted more ownership.

“Sometimes he’d show up and it’s like ‘Wow, that’s a hell of a play.’ And sometimes I didn’t see 51 when we needed him the most,” Spikes said. “When he came to play, when he was out there flying around, they were better as a group. When he came out there missing assignments or missing tackles, you could see the whole defense start walking through the motions.”

Growing up in nearby Lakeland, Miller, now 22 years old, admits he “was just a pup” when Spikes starred for the Gators. The age gap didn’t matter last month when the UF Hall of Famer motivated Miller to ramp up for his final season: Hold teammates accountable and “call out your brothers” before issues escalated up the food chain to coaches.

“Do you want to be one of these guys that just comes and goes and then they’re forgotten? Is that what you want?” Spikes said. “You’ve got a chance to change all that. You’ve got a chance to be remembered. You set the bar. This is your defense.

“So go out there and be a bulldog, be a great white shark. Go eat, man!”

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Ventrell Miller, second from the right, is pictured with his mom, Kamisha Smith, and three of his brothers. The oldest, Antonio (left), played at FAMU. (Courtesy of Kamisha Smith)
Refusing to let go
Miller is the second of five boys. His mother Kamisha Smith was 15 when she had Antonio and 17 when Ventrell came along. When she worked day shifts at Publix, her mom, Eva Davis, stepped in to watch the toddlers.

“That’s when Ventrell became a big grandma’s boy,” Smith said. “He’s her favorite and everybody in our family knows it.”

Grandma bought the boys cleats and shuttled them to flag football games and practices, her cheers always audible from the bleachers. When Antonio moved up to the tackling league, Ventrell cried over not being able to make hits, too. The family found another league where the 6-year-old little brother could be on a team, albeit with kids who were several years older. A tackling machine was born.

“The coaches thought it was so cute that Ventrell, this little bitty thing, would wrap around the bigger boys’ legs and refuse to let go,” Smith said.

The cuteness turned to bewilderment once Miller began playing running back. He’d stop mid-carry to wrestle with defenders. “Coaches would get so mad,” Eva said. “They’d be yelling at him: ‘Ventrell, how you gonna tackle somebody when you’re running the ball?'”

He embraced football so enthusiastically that when dealing with childhood asthma, he’d run to the sideline wheezing, take a pump from his inhaler and sprint right back in the game. As a middle schooler, he broke his arm during backyard horseplay and was outfitted in a plaster cast. He returned home days later without the cast, telling his mom he cut it off because it wasn’t allowed in games.

By the time the brothers were at Kathleen High in Lakeland, Antonio was a lightly recruited 200-pound defensive lineman who signed with Florida A&M. Ventrell was a fierce hitter who blossomed into a Class 7A all-state linebacker.

Eva and Ventrell’s grandfather, Billy Davis, were Florida State fans, but the Seminoles were not among the 35 FBS schools that offered Miller. He seriously considered Virginia Tech and North Carolina, but on a 10-hour drive to Chapel Hill for an unofficial visit, his mom spoke the decisive sentence:

“You know, your grandma can’t drive this far to see you play.”

Even an offer from Miami meant a five-hour drive, so Miller was relieved once Florida joined the chase, thanks to his lead recruiter at Virginia Tech, Torrian Gray, taking a job with the Gators.

Grandma is set for the opener against FAU and the Week 2 game against USF in Tampa. She’s still working on scrounging up enough tickets for Sept. 18, the huge rematch against Alabama.

Her living room in Lakeland features a cabinet packed with Miller’s trophies from youth league and high school. The walls of one bedroom are another shrine, lined with pictures spanning his Florida career. On his final visit before camp, he returned to bring his grandma the latest — a senior promotional poster the school produced.

“We’ve got them all over the place,” Eva said, “and this one is going up on the wall, too.”
 

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Linebacker Ventrell Miller talks with reporters during SEC Media Days in Birmingham, Ala. “He’s that Alpha male,” cornerback Jaydon Hill said of Miller. “… He’s going to do whatever he’s got to do.” (Vasha Hunt / USA Today)
Facing the consequences
Robinson is the youngest Gators assistant at age 30, in some respects another big brother-type influence. Yet Robinson is enough of an old soul to value the legacy-building opportunity in front of Miller. They’ve navigated hard conversations and weathered disappointments, leaving a mother back in Lakeland grateful to have such a re-affirming liaison.

“Coach Rob has done a big job in Ventrell’s life,” Smith said. “He’s been there to keep him motivated and push him because he knows Ventrell can meet those expectations that he puts on him.”

The relationship wasn’t easy at the outset, dating back three seasons to January 2018, when head coach Dan Mullen and his staff arrived from Mississippi State. At that point, Miller was a redshirt freshman coming off a season-long suspension for a scam that involved nine players using stolen credit cards to transfer money into their university bookstore accounts.

Unable to participate in team travel, practices or workouts during his suspension, Miller tried to stay in shape by joining a private gym. At home he’d shuffle playing cards, flipping one over and doing the corresponding number of pushups until the deck was finished. Being banished was an embarrassing and difficult stretch for Miller, whose status became cloudier after Jim McElwain was forced out in late October 2017.

Grandpa Billy advised Miller “to get on your knees to pray” that the incoming staff would see fit to reinstate him. “We love you no matter what happens,” he told his grandson, “but you know that what you did was wrong, that you listened to the wrong people, so now you’ve got to suffer the consequences of your actions. Keep your head up and wait for the outcome. You’re not in control anymore. When you mess up, you’re not in control.”

Thanks to a pre-trial intervention plan afforded first-time offenders, Miller managed to have his third-degree felony charge expunged. Winning over the new coaching staff was a different order.

Robinson’s first priority in Gainesville — setting up one-on-ones with the returning inside linebackers — provided a feeling-out encounter: The graduate assistant stepping into his first full-time job needed players to respect him, and the player returning from disciplinary exile needing to prove he was on the right track. “I remember we were sitting across from each other, kind of feeling the same thing, just at different points in our lives,” Robinson said.

With Vosean Joseph and David Reese entrenched as starting linebackers, Miller set his aim on earning a backup job. It was a rocky, frustrating period for the young player — the part Robinson described as “the hoops you’ve got to pass through to show everybody that you know what you’re doing.” At one point, when classmate James Houston was elevated to the second-string mike linebacker, Miller called home exasperated.

“This new coach, he doesn’t like me,” he said. “I think he hates me.”

Mom and Grandpa Billy sought to redirect, telling him to channel that disappointment into playing special teams or the money linebacker or wherever the coaches moved him.

Though Robinson wanted Miller to experience practicing with the travel squad, he wasn’t getting the reps afforded guys on the two-deep. By midseason, Miller finally asked: “Can I just go down to scout team because at least I get to play?” That move lasted only a couple of weeks before Miller was needed on the travel squad again to backfill an injury.

This time Robinson simplified the instructions: Just go hard. Don’t be timid. If you’re timid, you’ll never reach your potential.

The team’s next scrimmage period proved transformative.

“I could go back into the clips and show you that day’s practice — Ventrell was absolutely smacking people,” Robinson said. “And he was messing up, too, but it was a total different energy because he wasn’t worrying about messing up. He wasn’t wondering ‘What does Coach think about me?’ He was just getting after it.

“I think that day is the point where he knew he belonged. Fast-forward to the next year, and he opens up against Miami with two sacks and a coverage play at the end that helps us win the game.”

Miller has made 22 starts for Florida across the past two seasons, perhaps none more impressive than a 16-tackle effort against LSU in The Swamp last December. What should have been his third SEC Player of the Week performance was obscured by a fog, a shoe and a loss.

Robinson gushes about Miller’s playmaking exertion that night, calling it a seminal moment in “proving to his teammates that he is an SEC linebacker.” That’s the guy Florida’s defense requires every game. That’s the guy who understands why it wasn’t his time to chase the NFL.

“Don’t worry about the next level — you’re going to be fine there,” Robinson told Miller. “You can cement a legacy here that, as a kid from Lakeland, will mean something special. And you know if you want to achieve your dreams, you have to bring people with you. You have to lead this team.”

Whether as a bulldog or a great white, he’s eating for an entire unit.

“The ultimate leader. He’s that Alpha male,” said Gators cornerback Jaydon Hill. “He really wants the best out of everybody, and that goes from scholarship players to walk-ons. He’s going to do whatever he’s got to do. That’s one thing about Ventrell — he gets that nose muddy for the team.”

(Top photo of Ventrell Miller closing in on Alabama running back Najee Harris in last year’s SEC title game: Adam Hagy / USA Today)
 
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