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Derek Lee

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Jaylon Smith challenged us to “watch the film.” Here’s what we learned

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By Bob Sturm Jan 19, 2021
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The Cowboys’ 2020 season was long and disappointing. It ended at Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on a tiny margin that seemed a proper cap to a season that couldn’t end soon enough.

After the game, as has been the case all season, key players met the media through the lens of a camera for what now passes as a postgame press briefing.

Jaylon Smith was wearing a yellow winter coat and what we can assume were sunglasses that were created by him for his name-brand line. The questions began. For four minutes, they were all about this game. The final question was about the future:

“Jaylon, there has been a lot of discussion about the future of players whether they are under contract or not. Do you feel like you will be back here next year at all?”

“Me?” he responded, with what appeared to be some level of confusion.

(Long pause)

“Yeah,” from the reporter.

“Pffffff. I mean, watch the film. But, for me, it’s a blessing to be able to play this game. So many people thought I’d never play. Ever again. So, for me, I’m my worst critic and I’m my biggest fan. I’m gonna keep battling and keep grinding. But the guys that know football and know our scheme and watch film, I don’t have to speak on myself. It’s all love. It’s all love.”

Let’s start at the beginning and with some disclosure. I have long been a huge Jaylon Smith enthusiast. (I resist the word “fan” because it generally means one is not capable of seeing reality sometimes, and I believe you can want great things for another human while still seeing things for what they appear to be, not what you want them to be). I enjoy his story, and his recovery is inspirational. I have even done a public event a few years back where it was just Jaylon and myself in front of a large audience having a conversation. In other words, if anything, I am probably a bit biased on his behalf.

You may recall that after the 2018 season, I wrote a very long story enthusiastically praising what I deemed to be the Cowboys Player of the Year. It was Jaylon Smith. Here is a passage from that piece. I bolded one line in particular.

“The player who was so limited in 2017 shed all of those labels in a hurry. His 2018 was nothing short of magnificent and buried any and all claims that he could not return to being the player projected as a top-10 draft pick before that 2016 Fiesta Bowl.

In other words, the recovery is now in the past tense. Jaylon Smith is a star in this league.

I am not saying he played a perfect season. We will see some plays below that were not all excellent; this is a very tough league with some nearly-impossible matchups. But, I want to recognize Smith’s season, the risk the Cowboys took, and the position they are now in because the player and the franchise believed in a return to form.

Jaylon Smith wasn’t just a good player this year. He was one of the very best linebackers in all of football. Given that people like me had our doubts in August about whether he would ever be a league-average starter, the strides he made cannot be overstated.

My evaluation of Jaylon’s 2018 comes down to more than just his splash plays. But, he made many, many splash plays. He had sacks, forced fumbles, passes defended, and tackles for loss. He made plays that helped win games and one or two we will not soon forget.

Not only did Smith make more big plays, but he made far fewer poor plays. This is the true key of a special NFL player. When you are not making difference-making positive plays, it’s important to avoid the difference-making negatives.”

That was 23 months ago.

And here we are today, challenged by No. 54 himself to “watch the film” of the 2020 season to evaluate whether there should be a conversation about the future of his inclusion on this team. It wasn’t a very good season; too often, it felt like he was responsible for some massive plays and what we called difference-making negatives. So, partly because I enjoy uncovering more than easy narratives, I took on Jaylon’s challenge to “watch the film.”

But not just me — because, despite my extreme interest, I have certainly coached the game of football for zero days in my entire life and have limitations to my scheme knowledge because of this. Assisting me today is a team of experts: coaches and scouts I know or have come to know through this job that I wanted to assist in the evaluation of these plays.

This project is not to make Jaylon look good or bad. It is to understand how a player this good could fall this far and whether the larger changes in the defense — first from 2019’s Marinelli-Richard crew to Nolan and then this year’s move from Nolan to Dan Quinn, which will look like a complete 180 — can undo the bad and help him try to regain the good.

First, I want to bring in a guy whose opinion I really enjoy: Steve Palazzolo from Pro Football Focus. I asked him to evaluate Jaylon’s current status and season performance. He responded that same day:

Bob, some thoughts on Jaylon Smith:

Linebacker grading does tend to fluctuate more than other positions in the PFF system, and I think it’s largely the nature of the position. So much of defensive performance is based upon who you face and, especially at linebacker, opposing matchups. So using multiple years of performance is better than one year as the sample size obviously helps sift through the noise. Also, linebacker play was down a bit across the league, so Smith’s 2020 didn’t look THAT bad comparatively.

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This is Smith’s four-year career. Pretty good:

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I buzzed through some of Smith’s 2020 film, and I think the biggest difference this year was in the run game, just as the grades show. He still has the speed and agility to beat blockers to the spot and, as I described during the draft process, he looks like a Madden glitch morphing to the ball at times. However, this year, Smith’s negatively graded plays against the run increased dramatically, and it looked like his block awareness was poor. He seemed to have his eyes on the back, and he rarely saw second-level blocks coming his way. Perhaps it was the new scheme, but in past years we’d seen Smith use his hands and shed blocks much better whereas this year he just got popped or moved far too easily. Hope this helps, but the bottom line is linebacker play does fluctuate a bit and think we did see that with Smith this year.

I really appreciate Steve providing PFF’s grading. As you can see, his four-year portrait is in the top half of the league in almost everything and in top quarter of the league in three of those six categories. I tend to agree that most of Jaylon’s biggest issues this year were on the ground in run situations. I also concede that almost all of these situations are not a solo problem: The Cowboys’ defensive tackle and safety positions let him down, as did the long-term health situations of Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee, to say nothing of the scheme issues.
Now to our panel of experts. I am not going to name them because I don’t want to lose the focus of the piece and have people questioning them and their track records. The focus should be on evaluating what their eyes see as coaches. I promise, nobody here has an issue with Jaylon, and several are watching these plays on film for the first time. But they do know the game of football inside and out. They are:

Coach 1: 16 years of defensive football and head coach at the high-school level.

Coach 2: 10 years in defensive football — both college and high school levels.

Coach 3: Linebackers coach at the D1 level.

Coach 4: Over 25 years in coaching, including 20 as offensive coordinator at the high school level.

Each of them stressed the issues with not fully knowing the calls but simply looking at what the tape shows. In fact, Coach 2 even qualified it this way: “All comments are qualified by not knowing the defensive play call, which is obviously a huge part of the discussion. But I will confine myself to technique-only (as much as possible) as you requested.” The coaches are all working independently; they do not know each other, nor do they know what the others’ evaluations are.

I gave them seven plays that quickly jumped out as significant moments where Jaylon Smith looked to be at least partly at fault. Each one has five frames for you to look at while we are talking about each spot. On Thursday, I will dive into an overall collection of our evaluation as well as my conclusions. But our panel is up first — and I walked away intrigued by how often the coaches found blame elsewhere.

Play 1 – Seattle – Q2 – 7:25 – 1st-and-goal – Chris Carson left for no gain.
This play caught eyes because, quite frankly, it was the first of many in which Jaylon clearly became confused mid-play, stopped his action completely and turned the other way. It was like someone’s Xbox controller got unplugged because the rest of the defense continued in their uninterrupted direction. What caused him to make a movement that seemingly made no sense? His eyes and his body were in such direct conflict during this two-second play that it even jumped out to people on their couches. The question of “what is Jaylon doing?” certainly popped up a few times this season.

Carson did not get in the end zone. but I still wanted this one to begin our evaluation — and don’t forget there is always money in the banana stand.

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Coach 1: Once 54-Smith has hunted his gap, he is committed, continue on, flow to ball, get in the picture; the pause to check the boot (which is long-gone if 3-Wilson has the ball), shows an incomplete understanding of how to be reasonably effective in the defense. “If I do my job, I cannot do that job.” The real problem here is of course 98-Crawford, who gets inexplicably hooked after two steps; poor read of departure angle of covered OL, poor technique vs. full zone to allow his gap to run away from him; 25 too light, too high, not enough pressure on the LOS with his chest, his only hope is to undercut the crack and run through the underside of the block; 39 not quick enough on the crack-replace, especially with full zone flow at him, outside technique (even in man coverage) allows for this read to be made quickly.

Coach 2: Against the outside zone, Jaylon should not jump into that A Gap. It puts him way behind the play. But the crack on Woods cuts off his lateral flow. Jaylon has no good option here. As for turning back to Russ? That is on Jaylon. Do your job and run to the ball. The biggest takeaway here is the lack of trust Jaylon and LVE showed in the structure around them all year. I put 90 percent of this on Brandon Carr (No. 39). He gets a crack block by his key (No. 14). The play is strung out to him, and he can’t make an outside-in tackle. Carr should not hesitate, force the run back inside. He has support coming, and Armstrong is playing this perfectly. Armstrong deserves a mention here. They have a chance because of him, and this shows why he got more reps as the season went along.

Coach 3: Great read, great downhill move, no false steps… BUT HE STOPS AND LOOKS AT… WHAT EXACTLY??? He may not end up making the play, but in the middle of sprinting towards the ball carrier, he stops and sees a ghost. This was the weirdest play of the game. He is not trusting his eyes. Maybe he doesn’t trust his teammates, and he is trying to do too much, but this was just bizarre.

Coach 4: Problem stems from how they are set on the bunch side —makes them out-gapped to both sides —just dumb, got two in same gap to the bunch, that leaves them screwed out the back end. Smith has backside A gap, full flow and should scrape. Safety doesn’t allow it, and Smith is clueless anyhow and put in a bad situation gap-wise to begin with.

Play 2 – Cleveland – Q2 – 9:11 – 1st-and-10 – D’Ernest Johnson left end to DAL 23 for 28 yards
This one is very frustrating, as part of the first half against Cleveland that might have been the defense’s darkest hour this season. It was as if they had never been together or coached. And, yes, we have learned over time that when this team gets gashed on the ground, it does seem to happen more when Sean Lee and Leighton Vander Esch are absent. For instance, Weeks 4 and 5 in 2017, when Jaylon and a backup LB (Anthony Hitchens) were just abused by the Rams and Packers in consecutive home games.

But this seemed different due to the pre-snap motion of the TE and then the pulling RG as well, all to the point of attack. Was this on Jaylon or were they just outnumbered — and was the blitzing CB coming from the far left of the frames way too wide to affect anything?

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Derek Lee

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Coach 1: At the snap, the DE makes a great move but must play under control so he doesn’t slide past the play. For 54, ZERO REASON for hesitation here. He’s on a Strong X, with 2 backs at him. Be gone yesterday. Hesitation costs him his correct shoulder, and even though he ends up reasonably correct at the point, he’s on the wrong shoulder, which of course is the difference between Notre Dame and the NFL. The outside pressure (28-Worley) is terrible. Way too deep, especially on a 1st-and-10 play vs. a formation this heavy; needs to be flat and scraped off the butt of the TE. That the W (88) is able to work past all of that and find the backside LB (48-Thomas) is embarrassing.

Coach 2: Normally Jaylon should get outside the kickout block (No. 88) and send it all back inside, but that is 28-Worley’s job. The corner blitz takes on all primary force responsibility. He is completely untouched and should make this play. Now, in terms of Jaylon, this is a question for the coaching staff. Is he being told to fit the first open window or the next inside gap? First open window: Jaylon fits like he does inside of No. 77 and spills the play outside. This allows Joe Thomas to keep scraping and outrun the OL climbing to him. And it keeps the corner blitz in the picture.

Next inside gap: Jaylon fits between No. 88 and No. 77 and supports the edge created by the corner blitz. This forces the ball back inside to pursuit but puts a ton of stress on Joe Thomas to play through an OL and fit inside No. 77. This is not a horrible situation; unblocked corner and Thomas beat his OL. Someone has to make a play. Maybe a healthy LVE does, or maybe Awuzie does. Why are the coaches relying on replacement-level players to “make plays”?

Coach 3: The defensive line is slanting to the left. This means all the gap responsibilities shift over one gap to the right for the LBs. 54 fits one gap too many inside. You can even see 48 stutter steps because 54 is fitting into 48’s gap. 54 should be fitting between pulling guard and 88. Explosive play + mental error = critical error.

Coach 4: It is unsound to begin with. They are asking Smith to take the left A gap, the left D and C gap. The Browns insert two people — making more gaps — the Cowboys can’t gap it out. Just dumb. They have over-gapped the right side —just draw lines between defenders and gaps, and you can see what I mean. Once the Browns motion and pull, the Cowboys are screwed in the run game. Now, if 54-Smith comes forward and blows it up instead of hopping, NFL dudes may be able to fit it — but not when he hops like that. Just bad.

Play 3 – Arizona – Q4 – 2:00 – 3rd-and-4 – Kenyon Drake up the middle for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This play happened at a very low time in the year: the week after Dak Prescott was hurt, and we were all looking at those left to just show some fight. I will concede that one of Jaylon’s most important issues with the public is to never look like he is giving up on plays when he thinks it is past him because he has that reputation from previous film studies. This very thing happened early in the fourth quarter on a long play where DeAndre Hopkins took a short pass for 60 yards, and Jaylon did not show proper effort. Therefore, when this happened late in the game, nobody had patience for seeing Drake run right down the middle of the defense untouched for an exclamation-point touchdown. What did our coaches see?

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Coach 1: This play is silly to me. 54 is playing MLB by alignment against an uncovered center. Uncovered centers are relatively easy to read because, in pass pro, they are going to have to pass set quick to acquire blitzes or move to chips along the front… they rarely lie to you, much like covered TEs. Vs 2i (DT), the LG blocks down on the 2i, and the C is looking to scoop the inside of the play side gap on his way to Wham on the play side LB (48). In short, if something shows across his face, he takes it; if not, he continues on to 48. Somehow, 54 engages on the wrong shoulder, in the wrong gap, gets himself blocked and blocks two other guys along the way. You hate the reaction by 48: He has an open door, plain as day; he needs to be gone yesterday and attacking the open door, his delay puts him in horrible position to get screened by 54. Don’t know if this is supposed to be a blitz by 25-Woods or not, it might explain the over-commit by 54. But if not, it’s not good by 25. He is the cutback player in this front, with action away. Being in the A gap is OK, but ideally, we would like to see a scrape across the front with consistent pressure with my chest on the LOS (line of scrimmage) until I close down to the cutback run.

Coach 2: Jaylon is lined up in a weak-side “10” over an open A gap, but as the play unfolds, that is not his gap. The Cardinals have a four-man surface to the strong side, and on any run, Jaylon must add himself strong as a play-side player. The open A you point him to is Woods’ responsibility as a cutback player. Jaylon is at full fault here. He must take the play-side B Gap, but he gets reached by the center. Jaylon gets split flow, O-Line weak and RB Strong, since this is a zone scheme he should step with the RB and get downhill into the B Gap. Joe Thomas is stacked on Crawford and is playing the C and D gaps with him. Joe is correct to slow play this because he doesn’t have an open window, and no one is climbing to him. Jaylon has a wide-open window and gets blocked because he can’t process split flow and doesn’t know what to do. By staying at depth it creates a wide-open cutback lane. Please make sure to note that Jaylon has a weak-side and a strong-side gap based on play direction. Donovan Wilson also gets a big minus here for committing to early. He probably assumes Jaylon won’t get bullied all the way to the C gap, but he never has a clear lane and commits too early.

Coach 3: I think I watched this play at least a dozen times. I’ve read how Nolan runs a two-gap defense, but this is clearly a one-gap call. 54 has the A-Gap right in front of him. That’s his sole responsibility in the run game. Ball is snapped and the center comes to block him and 54 goes the wrong way. How do I know it’s the wrong way? There is a NT in the other A Gap and an LB that has the B Gap on the other side. 54 does what we have seen him do far too often and doesn’t fight through the block. 41 sprints untouched for a 69-yard TD. The proverbial cherry on top.

Coach 4: By now, I am starting to think this isn’t Smith; this is just stupid defense. By his reaction, his key read is guard and he has backside A, but they are sending a little guy through backside A. Then look at the front side on the right of the screen! Who has what gap? There are two in one again. Smith just takes blocks —he needs to have flow reads and run — not this stuff they have him doing that is unsound. It seems like the back end and the front are not tied together at all, like the secondary guys and the front guys are not on the same page, and they are just calling stuff and hoping it works. And that doesn’t work.

Play 4 – Washington – Q1 – 3:54 – 2nd-and-3 – Antonio Gibson left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Much like our first play, Jaylon sees this correctly — until he sees the “eye candy,” 41-McKissic, running across the offense as a decoy and drops everything to go with him. This was so nonsensical and the moment in the year when I was convinced that Jaylon had regressed more than any reasonable player could. When you are down pieces, you automatically expect the remaining highly compensated players to shine and help drag the team along. This was Vander Esch’s first game back, and he was on a snap count, but Jaylon has been lost for a full month by this game in Week 7. I see no chance that this was on anyone but 54, but I did want to see what the coaches thought. Don’t forget about the banana stand, please.

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Coach 1: The read triangle (G-C-G) again is full zone right and look how quickly the uncovered center tells you the truth; from the perspective of 54-Smith, he should only see full zone right with the RB action the same… That’s HIS JOB: HUNT THAT GAP. Under no circumstance should he do anything else from this alignment against this front and action. 54 looks like he is just completely guessing here. No concept of the read, no understanding of how the defense fits together, running off to do someone else’s job instead of his own.

Coach 2: Jaylon chases the split zone WR crossing the formation like a dog not sure which squirrel to chase. This is awful and probably the most indicting clip because of the DO YOUR JOB lesson to be learned here. Jaylon has to play his weak-side A gap. That gap is vital on any run-based play; it cannot be abandoned. Now, there is a larger football IQ problem here. Split zone or cutback zones have to involve tight flow from the RB. With a full wide-flow look, such as this play, the most it can cut back is the weak-side A gap. Jaylon not only has bad eye discipline, but he clearly doesn’t understand what is a possible outcome. I still cannot believe he abandons his gap; it is truly baffling. Furthermore, there is no universe where he could realistically cover a route going against the grain, and no DC would ever make that his job. If anyone should chase that action it is Wilson, no one else. LVE actually does very well here and almost makes a TD-saving play. If he any sort of replacement-level help from Jaylon, this is a no play. 10 guys doing their job, and one guy not trusting the structure.

Coach 3: Remember what I said about LB keys? Eyes should be guard through to the RB. What are those three players doing? And explain to me what 54 is doing… He sees Washington-41 run under and to the flat at the last second and throws all the other information out the window while 24-Gibson runs for an easy TD. Again, either he doesn’t know what he’s doing, doesn’t understand where his eyes should be or he doesn’t trust his teammates to make a play. Regardless, this is one of the worst plays out of 54 all year. Eye candy has been and will be a problem all season.

Coach 4: Lol! No. 25-Woods and 26-Lewis are not in force position to begin with —they can be cracked — unsound as hell. The play is just basic split zone; yes, there is a boot fake off of it, but they have the numbers to cover that out the backdoor without him. Again, it looks like a huge disconnect between what he is being told on the front and gaps, and what he is being told on the coverage end.

Play 5 – Washington – Q4 – 12:14 – 1st-and-10 – Antonio Gibson left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the play immediately following the infamous botched fake punt. You want your defense to be organized and ready to deal with sudden change. If your offense or special teams just handed your opponent an opportunity, a defense has to take that personally and make a stand with some sort of reasonable conviction.

Washington moves Gibson from Alex Smith’s left to his right at presnap to attack the spot that looks undermanned. Gibson basically waltzes down Main Street right past Smith and he is gone. This also showed me that this team has nothing at defensive tackle to help the linebackers. The other thing I would point out is that, in the fourth frame below, Gibson and Jaylon are even with each other (with linemen between them). Often, in runs like this, the two meet at the intersection with a collision by the sixth frame. In this case, by the sixth frame, Gibson had a five-foot lead on Smith to the corner, and he is gone — completely untouched.
 

Derek Lee

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Coach 1: I find it very difficult to believe that 54 is lined up correctly here. He’s into the boundary, and perhaps they had some field tendencies (in fairness, LVE is slid one gap to the field also, so perhaps this is correct based on the call). He seems to be trying to communicate something, but the overhang player is to the field, so there’s no one there to talk to. My problem with this is even though the LBs are slid one gap to the field, they still have to work back to their gaps on straight-ahead run action, draw or not. 54 takes first steps towards LVE’s gap instead of his own and out-leverages himself. Again, every single thing in my triangle (G-C-G AND RB action) takes me to my gap of responsibility, but 54 ignores it all. This read by 37 is incredibly poor; his read-key is No. 3 WR opposite (82), who immediately turns out on the DE. Vs. No. 3 engage, he has to work off his rail (the seam) back to his run fit. This puts him in position to play slant back to the single receiver side, as well as ultimately react quickly to the draw, which of course doesn’t happen. Three steps towards an engaged TE with nothing to squeeze vertically is not good.

Coach 2: I would say the LBs are both misaligned. Structurally, this makes very little sense. They are either being set up for failure by coaching, the coaching doesn’t understand how to mesh the safeties and LBs fits together or the players can’t recognize where they should align. This screams of a systematic issue that coaches aren’t teaching or the players can’t implement what they are being taught. As a result, both LVE and Jaylon jump into someone else’s gap because they are aligned over the wrong gap. Of course, they step up — they are NFL LBs; if they see an open window, the reflex is to close it. So the RB winds all the way to the backside B gap, where there is no safety and Jaylon should have been.

Coach 3: 54 has B Gap. He flows to backside A Gap (instead of outside to the B as the play dictates). Touchdown – CRITICAL ERROR

Coach 4: LVE has A/C gap, Smith has A/B gap — just dumb. Now, IF Smith has A and 37-Wilson has B, then this is all on 37. But, again, back end and front end don’t match!

Play 6 – Baltimore – Q1 – 9:22 – 2nd-and-7 – Jackson scrambles right end to BLT 29 for 10 yards (J.Smith).
This was very early in the Baltimore game — I believe their second snap — and they pretty much wanted Jaylon to play as an edge and just sit on the Lamar bootleg. Now that is easier said than done, of course, as Lamar is faster than every player on the field. But if you have one job, you certainly cannot dive too shallow to have the edge and get outflanked this easily. You literally had one job. Incidentally, for those who see the tackle totals as relevant, Smith was credited with a tackle on this play.

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Coach 1: 54 has an outside pressure and it is well-timed and run correctly, right off the butt of the expanded W. Vs. Pistol (and I would imagine more so vs. the Ravens), your target is adjusted at the QB because you can dual read the RB on your way to the QB (and the Qb is a second RB). This is harder to do when the back is offset to you or away from you just because of the potential play set and the angle of the mesh. The minute 8-Jackson shows you his back, your job is boot, whether he has the ball or not. Again, this is a question of where can I be reasonably effective in this defense? It’s unlikely I am chasing the zone down from the backside, but I can absolutely make a tackle on the boot. Vs. Jackson, you are never the best athlete, so when you read boot, your return angle must be flat. You can’t attack him, and you have to know that. This is making a great athlete look ordinary, skill to skill. Stick your foot, retrace your steps and work flat to force a throw.

Coach 2: Jaylon is boot responsible and has no “playside” responsibilities if the ball is handed. He is 100 percent responsible for Lamar. But his path is turned in, and his shoulders are turned. Jaylon obviously is at an athletic deficit to Jackson, but he could help himself by keeping his shoulders square and forcing Lamar to stand tall and make a rushed throw from inside the pocket. Also, even if Jaylon plays this well, they have a wide-open crosser to deal with. They are playing a 3 deep 3 under concept, and this is where I would say that Nolan’s age is showing. That coverage vs. 11 personnel is just not realistic given the number of potential threats.

Coach 3: Second play of the game for the defense. 54 blitzes and is outside contain. Yes 8-Jackson is one of, if not the most mobile QBs in the league, but even more so, 54 needs to be extra cautious and not let this happen. Outside contain and rush 8’s upfield shoulder maintaining that leverage so you can force him back into your friends. He does neither. In fact, it looks like he thinks he’s going to run down the RB sprinting to the other side of the field. Physical error.

Coach 4: He got “out-athleted.” The rest of the D is suspect gap wise, IMO.

Play 7 – San Francisco – Q1 – 1:44 – 3rd-and-1 – Mostert left end to DAL 2 for 17 yards
Finally, let’s look at this one. The 49ers are quite strong at game-planning and scripting plays to attack weaknesses that they spot in the lead-up to the game. I am pretty convinced they knew the combination of this Cowboys defensive right side (Crawford-Jaylon Smith) was ripe for the picking. What I thought was tough to understand is how, with maybe the best fullback in football, you can see the 49ers have too many blockers for the Cowboys defense to the left of the center but on 3rd-and-1, you see that while the Niners are expecting a power run, the Cowboys are absolutely outnumbered and easy pickings — so much so that 71-Trent Williams, one of the best tackles in football, finds himself with nobody to block on this key play.

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Coach 1: Before the W (44) motions, the read for 54 is 71 to 44, post-motion it becomes 75 to 31. Either way, the read is clean and clear. 75 engages and turns the DT, which takes all fast flow zone out of the question… this is the technique we wished we saw on Play 1. The most important part of this (no matter which lineman you are keying) is that you have a back at you. It’s quick, but he’s at you, so you have to honor that. Don’t run off to chase someone else’s back when you have a back at you. Poor 98-Crawford isn’t built for this play, so you have to do your job when 31 comes to my side at the snap. The crazy thing about this play is that he runs off so far that the OT assigned to him has no one to block. He just goes on down the field and picks him up 15 yards downfield.

Coach 2: Hard to blame Jaylon here. He has to take that fullback action because he appears to be A-gap responsible. I don’t like what Woods does here. As a single high safety, he has to be able to run alley to alley and support. He is a box safety playing out of position, and it shows here. I know they don’t have a better option on the roster. This play hits because the coaching staff puts Tyrone Crawford all alone on a backside edge. When you have D-Law, Gregory and Aldon Smith available, Crawford should never be forced to do this. For me, this one is on the coaching staff for putting Crawford in this predicament.

Coach 3: He’s just flat-out guessing at this point. Mental error.

Coach 4: They are asking him to play two gaps that are way too far apart — there is no force player to the left. This is easy money by the Niners: force his key here, go there, the play-side LT veers through and realizes immediately he isn’t needed to block Smith. This is not Smith’s fault. This is the DC’s fault.

Easy money. Yes, that was what Orlando Brown of the Ravens shouted into the camera in Week 13 when the Ravens were destroying the Cowboys on national TV. Easy money, indeed.

Two of our coaches left these overall summaries.

Coach 1: Overall, I look at 54 and feel like he has an incomplete understanding of how the defense works … almost like someone has coached him to just go run and be the best athlete. He seems to overreact to things that are not his responsibility, and he under-reacts to things that are fundamental to his own success in the scheme.

Coach 3: Playing linebacker is more than being able to blitz and cover receivers down the field. It is about taking on blocks, shedding them and tackling the ballcarrier. It is about living for contact and blowing up an iso. Jaylon wears the green dot, and you are telling me he has a hard time reading keys in the running game? I know I seem to pile on Jaylon a lot, but this is at the feet of Jerry and Stephen. This kid may have been an OK pro at 100 percent, but take away what he relies upon as his fastball and you have someone searching for answers. No wonder he jumps at every crosser he sees; his legs don’t work so he is guessing.

I will end there today and want to let this soak in a bit as we look at the issues. Then, in a few days, I want to write my own summary of this study and see how it can perhaps work out differently in 2021 if they keep him around, or if this actually is a lost cause and the Cowboys should replace him.

We will sort that out then.

Photo: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
 

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Tafur: Raiders’ lack of accountability falls on Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock

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By Vic Tafur Jan 28, 2021
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Nelson Agholor stormed into the locker room and couldn’t hold it in anymore.

It was Week 16 and the Raiders had just blown a win over the Miami Dolphins in the final 19 seconds. The players staggered off the dead-quiet Allegiant Stadium field in shock, anger and shame. They had once been sitting pretty with a 6-3 record and now, as they started to take off their sweaty jerseys and pads, they were 7-8.

Agholor, in the words of teammates, was pissed. The receiver walked to the middle of the locker room before coach Jon Gruden addressed the team and started screaming at them.

This was Agholor’s first season with the Raiders, after a stint with the Eagles where he had starred in a Super Bowl win. And he wanted to make sure everyone realized what had just taken place. What he saw.

Agholor, according to those in the room, said his teammates were selfish and didn’t work hard enough, and that they had quit against the Dolphins as well as in the previous two losses. He said there was no accountability in the locker room, and on winning teams players play for one another and the coaches. The Raiders’ performance over the previous six games was unacceptable, and too many people within the team were just flat-out accepting it.

Agholor told his teammates that they sucked.

Then, according to witnesses, he was done and there was silence. Gruden didn’t respond, and neither did any of the players. (When contacted Thursday night about the speech, Gruden texted, “I love Agholor.”)

Agholor hasn’t talked to reporters in months and is set to test the free-agent market, but his speech definitely lingered. Linebacker Nicholas Morrow, the day after the 8-8 season finished, said, “we lacked the accountability. The players, coaches, we all have to be more accountable to our jobs because we’re all connected together.”

Gruden, that same day, was asked about Morrow’s comments.

“Yeah, we have a lot of young players that, they have to be available, not only on Sunday or gameday, but they have to be available on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday,” he said. “Some of the details, they have to show up on tape. We have to be a much more detailed football team, especially in some areas on defense. It’ll be a critical area that we try to improve here.”

On Wednesday, general manager Mike Mayock echoed Morrow’s comments.

“The whole team needs to be accountable and self-aware,” Mayock told the team website. “And that starts with me. I have to do a better job. We drafted some guys last year that were position changes and maybe that wasn’t fair in a COVID-19 year.”

He mentioned moving Amik Robertson from outside corner to nickel, since-traded quarterback/receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. to running back and safety Tanner Muse to linebacker.

But forget those guys. To me, and I don’t want to beat a dead horse, the biggest reason the Raiders fell short of the playoffs is because they missed so badly in free agency. While Gruden and Mayock will say they don’t want to use COVID-19 and injuries as an excuse and then kind of do, the bigger problem was that the new players — besides Agholor — didn’t do much when they were on the field.

The Raiders gave $46 million in salary to defensive linemen Carl Nassib and Maliek Collins, linebackers Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski, backup quarterback Marcus Mariota and just-retired tight end Jason Witten. Not a difference-maker in the bunch.

“You can look at our track record and say we’ve made some bad decisions potentially,” Mayock told the team website. “We’ve also made some pretty good ones. … The entire building has to be accountable. Me, the coaching side and the players.”

Mayock, to his credit, didn’t drink the 8-8 Kool-Aid and called this past season “frustrating and disappointing.”

And while the Raiders did beat some good teams in the Chiefs, Saints and Browns, they also lost to some really bad ones. While their defense blew three wins, the Raiders were also gifted wins thanks to the late-game incompetence of the Jets and Broncos.

The highly touted 2019 rookie class took a step backward, and the 2020 class never really got off the ground. Receiver Henry Ruggs III made a handful of big plays, and that was enough to be the best of the Raiders’ bunch.

“I was disappointed in the productivity of our rookies, I will be the first one to admit that,” Mayock said. “You can make excuses … Henry Ruggs, I think, is who he is — I’m not disappointed in Henry. Henry’s got to get better. We knew how fast he is, but he’s got to get stronger and he has to get in and out of his breaks better. You’ve gotta feel him coming out of his breaks more for him to get to the next level. And I think he will.”



While a seemingly annoyed Ruggs tweeted out the first phrase of that quote on Thursday, it’s Mayock’s other quote on Ruggs that bugged me more.

Mayock also talked to our Tashan Reed and the Las Vegas Review-Journal at the Senior Bowl this week, and here is what else he had to say on Ruggs:

“I thought Henry was exactly what I thought he’d be,” Mayock told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “He did make a difference for our offense. He did flash. He still has a long way to go. And we knew that when we drafted him.”

Mayock also went deeper on the weight-room work.

“He’s got to be able to get off press and run through getting re-directed,” Mayock said. “He’s got to be more physical at the point of the ball.”

All true, but back up a bit. The fact that the Raiders made Ruggs the first receiver picked in a very deep draft, at No. 12 overall, and expected 26 catches for 452 yards is alarming. Not only did they take him over the more polished Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson, but they added the fastest player in the draft and didn’t seem to know how to use him.

Now, let’s get to the Raiders’ other first-round pick, cornerback Damon Arnette. He played in seven full games, left two others early with concussions and contracted COVID-19 during the team’s bye week.

“In training camp, prior to his injury, he was playing really well and we were excited about Damon Arnette,” Mayock told the team website. “He was instinctive, tough and fast. But concussions … a broken hand … COVID … OK. … He’s gotta take care of business in the offseason — nutrition, strength coach, the consistency of a day-to-day program.”

Mayock went on to tell the Review-Journal that Arnette “needs to apply himself religiously. … Because when things come easy to you, you don’t always work on the other things.”

If it’s not bad enough that the Raiders felt a need to light a fire under their two first-round picks from 2020, Mayock also touched on safety Johnathan Abram, a first-rounder in 2019.

“John gets out of control sometimes,” Mayock told the team website. “John has got to play under control, accentuate the positive and take away the negative. … (Arnette and Abram) need to step up this year. … We have to get way, way better on defense.”

Gruden fired his friend, Paul Guenther, as defensive coordinator and hired another, Gus Bradley, to take his place. Bradley, who worked for Gruden in Tampa Bay, has his work cut out for him, as do Gruden and Mayock, who in my opinion need to add two players through free agency and the draft who become the best two players on this defense. And one has to be a pass rusher.

“Last year, we did not have a dynamic (defensive) playmaker on any level,” Mayock told the team website. “And that’s hard, when you go into a game every Sunday and teams don’t have to specifically game-plan for any one player.”

That has to change, obviously, if the Raiders are going to make the playoffs next season. Which they kind of have to if fans are going to have any faith in this process.

Offensively, quarterback Derek Carr and Pro Bowlers Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs have improved under Gruden and offensive coordinator Greg Olson, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue. If the Raiders are unable to re-sign Agholor (I’m skeptical) they will have to bring in another veteran receiver.

The Raiders were 10th in the NFL with 27.1 points per game and that’s without getting much from their highest-paid player (right tackle Trent Brown) or their rookie class. Red-zone weapon Foster Moreau will be back in the mix now that Witten is gone after making $4 million for averaging 5.3 yards on his 13 catches while providing quality storytelling. (I like Witten a lot but that signing never made any sense.)

So, there are some reasons for optimism. But there is also a lot of pressure building on Mayock because he doesn’t have the 10-year contract or final say that Gruden does.

And Mayock is fine with that. He knows 8-8 is not good enough. Not in Gruden’s third season. Not in the new Las Vegas market. Not when teams like the Browns and Dolphins have quickly rebuilt and passed the Raiders by.

Not when players are questioning the accountability throughout the Raiders’ brand-new facility.

(Photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
 

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Super Bowl LV preview: What the film and analytics reveal about the Chiefs-Bucs matchup

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By Sheil Kapadia and Ted Nguyen 3h ago
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At the end of the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 12 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CBS analyst Tony Romo said he wouldn’t be surprised if the two teams met again in the Super Bowl.

Well, here we are.

The Chiefs were in control for most of that first meeting, leading 27-10 in the fourth quarter before the Bucs scored a pair of touchdowns that resulted in a 27-24 final. Tampa has not lost since. The Bucs won their final four regular-season games and three in a row in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs’ lone loss in Patrick Mahomes’ 17 starts (including the postseason) came in Week 5 against the Raiders.

As of this writing, the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites. What will it take for them to repeat as champs? And how can the Bucs pull off the upset? We explore all of that using film and analytics below. And, if you need a refresher on the definitions of certain stats used below, check out our Analytics Glossary.

When the Chiefs run the ball
The truth about the Chiefs’ run game is that every time Mahomes hands the ball off, opposing defensive coordinators breathe a sigh of relief. Andy Reid knows that, which is why Kansas City is one of the league’s most pass-heavy teams.

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On average, the Chiefs pass 63 percent of the time on early downs in score-neutral situations. In the first meeting, the Chiefs passed even more than usual (69.2 percent). Last week against the Bills, Darrel Williams carried 13 times for 52 yards, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned from injury but managed just 7 yards on six carries. In the first meeting between the two teams, Edwards-Helaire ran 11 times for 37 yards, while Le’Veon Bell had five carries for 22 yards.

The Chiefs are a heavy run/pass option (RPO) team, meaning Reid calls more runs than the final box score shows. When Mahomes has the option to pull the ball and pass, he’s going to do it more often than not. Even when the “correct” read calls for him to hand the ball off, he’ll still sometimes throw it. He has the talent to get away with those decisions, and his play-making mentality often results in explosive plays.

In the Week 12 game, the Chiefs gashed the Bucs’ defense with RPOs. Reid made a tweak to one of Kansas City’s bread-and-butter RPO concepts, and it gave Tampa fits.

2019 divisional playoffs, 14:15 remaining in the fourth quarter, first-and-goal

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The Chiefs usually run their wheel/slide RPO from 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs, two WRs). The run concept is a zone read in which the back-side end is left unblocked for Mahomes to read. If the end plays the running back, Mahomes has the option to keep the ball and either throw to a tight end running a wheel route or a tight end running a slide route from the other side of the formation. It seems the wheel route is only an option based on his pre-snap read. If the defender responsible for the wheel is too far outside of the box or playing too far back, the wheel might not really be part of his progression, in which case he’ll throw the slide if he keeps the ball. Mahomes also has the option just to run the ball if both routes are covered.

Week 12, 15:00 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10

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In Week 12, the Chiefs ran this concept out of 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs). Instead of having a tight end run the wheel, Tyreek Hill motioned from the other side of the formation and ran it. The motion allowed Hill to get to full speed as the ball was being snapped.

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Mahomes could see that the Buccaneers were in press coverage and that no one reacted to Hill’s motion before the snap.

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As soon as he pulled the ball from the running back’s belly, he quickly made the throw to Hill without resetting his feet, and the result was an explosive play. The Bucs will need to be better prepared for the Chiefs’ RPOs in this game — not only what they’ve seen on film, but possible wrinkles that Reid will break out with a Super Bowl on the line.

When it comes to Kansas City’s traditional run game, there’s no reason to believe they’ll pound the ball in this matchup. Kansas City ranks 13th in rushing DVOA, while the Bucs’ defense ranks first against the run.

Two non-traditional runs that the Bucs need to be ready for are Mahomes scrambles and wide receiver carries (end arounds, jet sweeps, etc.). Mahomes ranked fifth in Expected Points Added (EPA) on scrambles during the regular season and had 28 yards rushing in the first meeting. The Chiefs are always a threat to hand the ball off on jet sweeps, and they manufactured a 50-yard run to Mecole Hardman in the AFC Championship game. But the Bucs have speedy linebackers and defended wide-receiver runs well, allowing just 64 yards on 21 carries on those plays during the regular season, according to Sportradar.

When the Chiefs pass the ball
Last week’s performance against the Bills was Mahomes at the peak of his powers. His ball placement and accuracy were on point. He shook off pass rushers and made second-reaction plays. He diagnosed different pressure looks pre-snap and got the ball out on time. He won with his arm, his legs and his brain. When Mahomes is playing like that, there’s not a lot that defenses can do. According to EPA, that was the Chiefs’ most efficient offensive performance of the season. Their top three offensive performances of the last two seasons have all come in the playoffs.

The Bucs’ defensive meetings had to start with a plan for Hill and Travis Kelce. When Mahomes targeted those two players in the first meeting, he went 21-for-23 for 351 yards. Todd Bowles had Tampa in man coverage on just nine of Mahomes’ 53 pass plays in that game, or roughly 17 percent of the time according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. It wasn’t that the Bucs played a lot of man coverage. It was just that Mahomes burned them (6-for-9 for 113 yards) whenever they were in man. When Tampa lines up in press coverage in the Super Bowl, chances are they’ll mix in a healthy dose of Cover-7, which is a two-deep, man-match coverage that can allow them to bracket Hill and Kelce.

NFC Championship, 14:43 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-3

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Here, Sean Murphy-Bunting bracketed Davante Adams with outside leverage, while safety Jordan Whitehead was over the top with inside leverage. The Bucs bracketed Adams consistently throughout the game and limited him to nine catches for 67 yards on 15 targets.

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The Bucs played press coverage without any help on the Packers’ other wide receivers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling beat Carlton Davis over the top on this play, but for most of the game, Valdes-Scantling could not beat the Bucs’ physical coverage. For most of that game, the officials let defenders be grabby and physical. If the Super Bowl crew takes a similar approach, it will benefit the Bucs’ defense.

The Bills didn’t bracket often in the AFC Championship game, but at times they found ways to give extra attention to Hill and Kelce.

AFC Championship, 1:47 remaining in the first quarter, third-and-12

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Here, they bracketed Hill in the slot with a corner outside and a safety over the top and inside. On Kelce’s side, they pressed with a corner and had a safety playing a deep zone over top.

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Mahomes’ first read was Kelce, but corner Siran Neal was able to squat and be physical because he knew he had deep help. Mahomes quickly peeked at Hill before moving on to Byron Pringle, who had a one-on-one.

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Mahomes quickly got to his final read on the play and threw a strike to Pringle, who created a little separation on a curl route on the back side.

If the Bucs’ game plan focuses on trying to take away Hill and Kelce (easier said than done), the Chiefs will need their other pass-catchers to step up. Sammy Watkins has had a quiet year, and a calf injury has sidelined him since Week 16. But he could return for the Super Bowl and might offer Mahomes a nice option against man coverage.

Expect Bowles to employ a high percentage of two-deep coverages. In the first meeting, Tampa played some form of two-deep on 31 of Mahomes’ 53 pass plays. And the numbers suggest that’s the right strategy against Kansas City. On the season, Mahomes has crushed single-high coverages, producing 0.42 EPA per play, which ranks first. He hasn’t been nearly as good against two-deep looks — 0.18 EPA per play, which ranks 13th.

Does that mean two-deep coverages are Mahomes’ kryptonite? Of course not. Last week, he was 11-for-13 for 104 yards against two-deep looks. In the first game against the Bucs, he was 23-for-28 for 216 yards when Tampa played two-deep coverages. The truth is that if Mahomes is on, he can make any coverage look terrible. Bowles knows that and has to go with what he thinks will give him the best chance to at least slow Mahomes down.

The Bucs’ best chance on defense rests with their pass rush. The Chiefs lost left tackle Eric Fisher to an Achilles injury in the AFC Championship game. In the Super Bowl, they are expected to have just two healthy O-Line starters from Week 1, and one of those starters is Andrew Wylie, who will likely be moving from guard to tackle.

Even before Fisher left the game against the Bills, the Chiefs had some protection issues, but Mahomes made Houdini-like escapes. The Bucs’ four-man pass rush is a lot more talented than the Bills’, but they’ll have to be disciplined with their rush lanes.

AFC Championship, 6:09 remaining in the second quarter, first-and-10

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On this play, Mahomes faked a toss to the right in hopes of pulling up the underneath defenders to open up space for Hill running a crossing route.

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The play needed some time to develop, but Fisher was quickly beaten inside by defensive end A.J. Epenesa.

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The risk of an end taking an inside path is losing contain. Mahomes got outside of Epenesa, so defensive tackle Harrison Phillips ran flat down the line of scrimmage to help corral Mahomes.

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Mahomes somehow redirected and beat both pass rushers inside and made a jump pass to Hill, who had time to get all the way across the field.

Normally, we would say these types of plays are hard to replicate, but Mahomes has been making them routinely for the last three years. If the Bucs can get two or three pass rushers in his face quickly, it’ll be much more difficult to escape. All five of Tampa’s sacks last week came on four-man rushes. And four of them came within four seconds of the snap. To put that into perspective, Aaron Rodgers had been sacked within four seconds just six times in his first 17 games.

Bowles is always going to blitz. It’s in his DNA. But if ever there were a time to trust his front four, this would be it. Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea against the Chiefs’ banged-up offensive line may be Tampa’s biggest advantage. And Mahomes has eaten up the blitz, producing a league-best 0.54 EPA per play, compared to 0.25 EPA per play against four or fewer. Bowles will pick his spots to send pressure and try to produce negative plays. But the guess here is he won’t be nearly as blitz-heavy as he normally is.

When the Bucs run the ball
The Bucs aren’t exactly the Chiefs when it comes to being pass-heavy, but throwing the ball is definitely their preference.

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“Playoff Lenny” is fun and all, but if you think that Bruce Arians is going to try to win a Super Bowl by pounding the rock, well, we have a knockoff Kangol hat you might be interested in.

Ronald Jones looked good in the first meeting, rushing nine times for 66 yards (7.3 YPC). He had a 34-yard run and a 37-yard touchdown reception. But Jones has been dealing with a quad injury. He ran 10 times for 16 yards against the Packers and played just 18 snaps. Leonard Fournette had 12 carries for 55 yards, including a nifty 20-yard touchdown. He played 45 snaps.

The Bucs’ rushing attack isn’t varied. They mixed in some counters against the Packers, but their two base runs are inside zone and duo. Duo was the call on Jones’ 34-yard run in Week 12.

Week 12, 3:40 remaining in the third quarter, third-and-3

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On duo, a receiver is usually responsible for blocking the extra defender in the box. The Bucs will typically line up slot receiver Chris Godwin next to the line of scrimmage or motion him inside to do this job. Jones read the mike linebacker, which happened to be Daniel Sorensen on this play.

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Sorensen fit the A-gap, and defensive tackle Chris Jones got driven out of the B-gap by left guard Ali Marpet. This was an easy read for Jones, who exploded through the hole.

The biggest impact the Bucs’ running game will have in the Super Bowl could be in high-leverage, short-yardage situations. It’s a small sample (24 plays), but the Bucs have the best conversion rate (87.5 percent) on short-yardage runs this season. The Chiefs’ defense has been terrible against short-yardage runs, allowing conversions 82.9 percent of the time.

In terms of overall efficiency, the Bucs have not been a bad rushing team, ranking 10th in DVOA. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 31st against the run. So while the Buccaneers are unlikely to go run-heavy, the numbers suggest they should be able to be efficient when they turn to the ground game.

When the Bucs pass the ball
Brady’s final numbers — 27-for-41 for 345 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions — from the first game against the Chiefs weren’t bad. But the truth is Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had Tampa’s offense on its heels for most of that game. The Bucs scored just one touchdown on their first eight drives in Week 12. They managed one first down on their first four drives.

Like Bowles, Spagnuolo likes to send pressure. On the season, Brady produced 0.23 EPA per play when teams rushed four or fewer; that ranked sixth. Against the blitz, though, he’s struggled. When opponents have rushed five or more, Brady has produced 0.1 EPA per play, which ranks 19th. And in Week 12, Spagnuolo got to Brady with his blitz schemes. Against five or more pass rushers in that game, Brady went 11-for-20 for 146 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions.

Jones and Fournette have to be buttoned up with their blitz pickups in this game. Fournette whiffed on a block against the Packers that led to a fourth-quarter interception.

NFC Championship game, 9:22 remaining in the fourth quarter, second-and-11

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Here, it appeared that the Bucs had a play-action concept called, but Brady checked the protection. They were in seven-man protection, sliding to the right. The right guard, center, left guard and left tackle were responsible for the four defenders inside (two defensive tackles and two linebackers). The right tackle was responsible for the end, and Fournette should have been responsible for the nickel (No. 26), who blitzed.

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Brady dropped straight back, but Fournette carried out a play fake to his left and couldn’t get to the nickel blitzing. Brady was hit and threw up a duck intended for Mike Evans. Jaire Alexander easily picked it off.

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Expect the Chiefs to try to take advantage of Fournette with their pressure schemes.

The Chiefs held up well for the most part in man coverage against Tampa in the first game, but on the season, Brady has picked apart man coverage, producing 0.38 EPA per play (third). He hasn’t been nearly as good against zone, producing 0.11 EPA per play (16th).

Rob Gronkowski was a big factor in the first game, catching six balls for 106 yards on seven targets. The Bucs went to Gronkowski on a screen last week, and he rumbled down the sideline for a gain of 29. Godwin played well last week, and Mike Evans always gets opportunities. The Bucs will have to decide whether to stick with Scotty Miller or to give a chunk of his playing time to Antonio Brown if Brown is healthy.

In the first meeting, Spagnuolo seemed content letting Bashaud Breeland match up with Evans one-on-one. Brady was 0-for-3 in that game when targeting Evans against Breeland. The Bucs could try to get Evans a more favorable matchup against Charvarius Ward. Kansas City could use bracket coverages to double Godwin.

One of the most difficult parts about facing Spagnuolo’s defense is how unpredictable he is. Spagnuolo is in his second season with the Chiefs, and they brought back several defenders that were with him in 2019. Because of that continuity, the Chiefs run a ton of different schemes and execute them well. In the AFC Championship game, Spagnuolo flustered Josh Allen with his play-calling, especially in the red zone.

AFC Championship game, 6:23 remaining in the third quarter, third-and-3

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Here, the Chiefs appeared to have a bracket called on Stefon Diggs in the slot with Tyrann Mathieu on his outside and linebacker Anthony Hitchens on his inside.

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As Diggs motioned over, Mathieu signaled to the corner on that side that he would help bracket Beasley. Sorensen would help bracket Diggs on the other side. Allen might have thought that the motion freed Diggs up one-on-one because he locked on to Diggs after the ball was snapped.

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Allen was so focused on going to Diggs that he started rolling toward him, even running toward pressure. It initially looked like Diggs had a one-on-one with Sorensen, but Hitchens sprinted over from the left to get underneath of Diggs.

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With a defender underneath and over the top of Diggs, Allen had nowhere to go and had to throw the ball over Diggs’ head.

Overall, no team has played a higher percentage of two-deep coverages this season than the Chiefs, and that’s good news against Brady. He has carved up single-high coverages, producing 0.27 EPA per play (third). But against two-deep looks, that number has dropped to 0.12 EPA per play, which ranks 18th.

Brady is one of the smartest quarterbacks of all-time, but it’s a challenge figuring out Spagnuolo right now. Spagnuolo was able to stay one step ahead of Brady in the first meeting and pushed all the right buttons last week against the Bills. The mental battle between defensive coordinator and quarterback will go a long way in determining the winner of this game.

(Top photo: Kim Klement / USA Today)
 

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Ryan Day shuffles Ohio State’s defensive staff, choosing continuity over flash

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By Bill Landis Feb 3, 2021
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COLUMBUS, Ohio — With a chance to significantly shake up his defensive coaching staff, to bring in new ideas and make a splashy hire, Ryan Day has instead opted for continuity and the hope that his vision for Ohio State’s defense will come to fruition with the benefit of a normal year.

He’s doubling down on what already is in place and betting that Kerry Coombs will grow into his role as defensive coordinator. Day did not make the flashy hire some were hoping for, a big-named savior who can come shore up a defense that got shredded by Alabama in the national title game. In hindsight, it was perhaps silly to think Day would do anything that drastic. Turns out his preferred course of action was to keep things totally in-house rather than bring in any outside perspective.

Matt Barnes, the special teams coordinator and assistant secondary coach for the past two years, will now be just the secondary coach and take on a bigger role coaching the back end of the defense. The hole on the staff created by Greg Mattison’s retirement will be filled by quality control coach Parker Fleming, who is being promoted to full-time assistant and special teams coordinator.

Barnes’ move to secondary coach will free up Coombs to oversee the entire defense and float into some different position groups. With Mattison’s departure, Al Washington will take on some added responsibility as the only linebackers coach and have more of a voice in game planning with the front seven alongside defensive line coach Larry Johnson. But no one will be taking on Mattison’s co-coordinator title, which means that Coombs will be the sole coordinator.
Ohio State, in essence, is running it back despite the team’s defensive shortcomings last season.

“Do we overreact? No. I’m not going to do that. Not right now,” Day said. “I think with a whole offseason, a spring ball, a preseason, we’re gonna get the right personnel in place. We’re gonna make some adjustments schematically. And then we’re going to an unbelievable job coaching.”

When problems arise, Day breaks the issue down into three components: personnel, scheme and coaching. Urban Meyer used to trumpet the same mantra. Day said he likes his personnel but would like to see players put in better positions to succeed. He said he likes the scheme but is open to adding some tweaks. And he clearly likes the coaching — otherwise, he would have brought in someone new rather than merely shuffle the deck.

While that might be frustrating for anyone hoping Day would go out and get some new blood to freshen things up, it’s not necessarily the wrong path. Fans will see Alabama hiring former NFL head coaches to be college position coaches and wonder why Day can’t do the same thing. Well for one, Day doesn’t have the cache of Nick Saban. Two, that’s not the only way to do things.

“Promoting from within is something I believe strongly in,” Day said. “It’s gonna be an opportunity for these guys to be part of our program for a long time and keep some continuity.”

That makes sense on some level for a guy who has his current job because Meyer and athletic director Gene Smith believed promoting Day to head coach after the 2018 season was the right move for Ohio State at the time.

Promoting Fleming means Day has opted for the in-house call-up with two of his last three staff openings. He promoted quality control coach Corey Dennis to quarterbacks coach prior to last season. And though Coombs was an outside hire, he certainly had familiarity with the program.

It feels as though Day, for now anyway, is taking an approach similar to that of Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney, a serial in-house promoter. When Chad Morris left in 2014, Swinney elevated running backs coach Tony Elliott and receivers coach Jeff Scott to co-offensive coordinators. Three of Swinney’s last four hires have been promotions. Tyler Grisham was promoted from analyst to receivers coach when Scott left after the 2019 season. Lemanski Hall was promoted from analyst to defensive ends coach in 2018 when programs were permitted to add a 10th assistant. Mickey Conn was promoted from analyst to safeties coach in 2017.

Swinney has had remarkable staff continuity, an underrated element of Clemson’s rise to becoming a national power. That doesn’t guarantee Day will have success going a similar route, but it does show this path can work if you’re developing the right kind of coaches in your program.

This does put Day at an interesting crossroads. He’s putting a lot of faith in Coombs, his hand-picked coordinator whose debut season did not exactly go swimmingly. He’s banking on Barnes, whom Day brought over from Maryland prior to the 2019 season, being ready to handle more responsibility. And he’s putting Fleming on a track to rise up the ranks if he does well with this special teams coordinator role.

It’s a risk, particularly if the defensive staff — Fleming has an offensive background — can’t find ways to put players in better positions to succeed next season.

“We have really good minds in there,” Day said. “Kerry came from the NFL and was there for a couple of years. There’s plenty of ideas there. It’s just a matter of how do you implement it? If there’s some scheme out there that someone could bring in that we haven’t seen before or don’t know, then yeah, I would do that. But there isn’t. We know the different schemes. We know the different coverages. These guys are really sharp. But how do you pick the right ones? That’s the key.

“It’s the same thing on offense, the way that we looked a couple years ago with J.T. Barrett, then Dwayne Haskins, then Justin Fields and now how we’re moving forward is going to look different. It has to because it’s different people and a different quarterback, different set of personnel. Just because we were a four-down, Cover 3 defense two years ago, that doesn’t mean we have to be that the majority of the time.”

Whatever Day decided to with this opening was going to be telling about his vision for the defense moving forward. Would he bring in someone from the outside with experience running this Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks style of defense to complement Coombs, who doesn’t come from that background? Would he bring in someone with a different perspective to add to what’s been established as the base defense the past two years?

In some ways, he kind of did neither, and both.

Barnes is tangentially related to the Carroll tree through Dan Quinn. Quinn, who like Barnes is an alum of Division III Salisbury (Md.) University, had two stints coaching under Carroll in Seattle. In between, he was the defensive coordinator at Florida, where he hired Barnes as a graduate assistant in 2012. Barnes knows the ins and outs of this style of defense and will now have a bigger role in teaching it to Ohio State’s defensive backs.

Coombs, meanwhile, has a diverse background coming from previous OSU coaching staffs that were more two-high safety and quarters-based, and from his time working under Dean Pees and Mike Vrable with the Tennessee Titans. Johnson and Washington likewise have experience in different schemes.

What seems clear is that Day felt as though Coombs was spread a little too thin both coordinating a defense for the first time and also coaching the secondary.

“I thought we needed more attention on the back end,” Day said. “So then do you go get a secondary coach somewhere throughout the country that knows our scheme, that understands what we want to get done and fits? The list gets smaller and smaller. I watched the way that Matt Barnes works. I think he’s really, really good. If I didn’t believe that, I wouldn’t just do it.”

Moving Barnes to secondary coach accomplishes that, but that’s only part of the issue at hand.

The major question is how the overall defensive philosophy will evolve and if the guy calling the shots is the right person for the job. The way Day has set this up, we’re going to find out.

“There’s really good background there. There’s good scheme. How do we implement and find the right things?” Day said. “The way that the season played out with less games, no spring and the preseason being chopped up didn’t help. Now we have a whole year. Once we have a full season to evaluate that, I think as we sit here next year we’ll have a much better feel for where we’re at.”

(Photo of Kerry Coombs: Robin Alam / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
 

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Matthew Stafford vs. Jared Goff: The difference between the two QBs

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By Ted Nguyen Feb 3, 2021
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There was a time when coaches from the Mike/Kyle Shanahan tree thought that all they needed in a quarterback was a smart and accurate passer for their system to work. They didn’t covet the gunslinger with a rocket arm who would play outside the structure of their offenses too often. They needed someone who trusted in the system and could take advantage of the opportunities that a strong running attack and play-action concepts create. And for a time, it was good.

Sean McVay, a disciple of Shanahan, took Jared Goff from having one of the worst rookie seasons in recent memory to looking like a capable quarterback in his first season as head coach of the Rams in 2017. In his second season with Goff, they went to the Super Bowl but scored only three points in a loss. In the next couple of seasons, as the Rams’ once explosive run game started regressing, so did Goff’s production. Though there were some flashes of strong play, Goff couldn’t elevate the Rams’ offense on a consistent basis. His physical shortcomings became more obvious and this season, he was contrasted with Aaron Rodgers, who had an MVP-caliber season in Matt LaFleur’s version of the Shanahan/McVay system with the Packers. It was only natural that McVay would start to wonder what he could do with a more physically talented quarterback.

Rams general manager Les Snead granted McVay’s wish and traded Goff and his bloated contract along with two first-round picks and a third-round pick for Matthew Stafford. Stafford is a former No. 1 pick primarily because of his immense arm talent. Some would argue that Stafford hasn’t lived up to his promise because he didn’t win more games in Detroit, but no one could argue with his playmaking ability. Lions games haven’t exactly been must-watch TV, but anyone who’s made the effort to watch the film will tell you that Stafford is a special talent. He’s a different breed than Goff physically and he’ll bring a playmaking dynamic to McVay’s offense.

With Goff, the field was limited. McVay had to scheme mostly in the intermediate area of the field and in between the numbers. With Stafford, McVay has the entire field open to him when he designs plays. Below is a heatmap that depicts what areas of the field in which Stafford or Goff has been more accurate (estimated completion percentage) in their last 48 starts. The darker the shade, the greater the difference.

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Stafford has been more accurate in nearly every part of the field except for in the intermediate area (10-20 yards) in which McVay has been exceptional in creating space with his play-action concepts. With Stafford, McVay will be able to attack deep, outside the numbers more than he has in the past. He can do it with scheme, and there will be times when Stafford will simply make more aggressive decisions throwing deep than Goff did.

Week 13, 2:41 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10

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On this play, the Lions called a four vertical concept. The Bears’ defense dropped into a Cover 3 zone, which means Stafford should be looking at the inside two verticals and basing his decision on which route the free safety favors. The two outside routes are usually “dead” against this coverage.

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Stafford had to deal with quick pressure from the outside from Khalil Mack, so he calmly slid up and outside the pocket to buy time.

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As he got outside, he signaled to his receiver to keep running.

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Then Stafford launched a perfect bomb to the outside shoulder of his receiver for a touchdown. I don’t believe I have ever seen Goff make a play like this.



Intended air yards are air yards on every pass attempt whether the pass is completed or not. According to Pro-Football-Reference, last season, Stafford’s intended air yards per attempt was 8.7 yards, which was over 2 yards more than Goff’s, which was 6.6. Stafford’s aggression and accuracy throwing deep should lead to more explosive plays in the Rams’ passing game, which will get defenses to back off more and help the running game.

The wave of the future are quarterbacks who have the ability to create. McVay has never had that type of quarterback run his offense before. He got a tease of it with backup quarterback John Wolford, who started in Week 17 and in the wild-card round of the playoffs, but Wolford was injured on the first drive of the playoff game and didn’t return for the rest of the playoffs. Goff often looked flustered when the play didn’t go how it was drawn up and made bad decisions when he had to play outside of structure. Stafford is going to provide a major upgrade in that area.

Week 12, 11:00 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-6

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On this play, the Lions have a concept that is similar to one of McVay’s bread-and-butter plays that he calls “Race” with the inside receiver running a hitch and the outside receiver running an in-breaking route behind him to create a high/low.

Diagram from McVay’s 2014 playbook with the Washington Football Team:

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Stafford began reading the frontside concept to his right but felt interior pressure, so he had to scramble to his left.

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As he moved to the left, he kept his eyes on the underneath route to move the underneath defender (No. 58) out of the passing window because he intended to throw the intermediate route behind him. The most impressive part of this play was that he began his throwing motion while keeping his eyes underneath.
 

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Stafford hit his receiver in stride without even looking at his target and drifting away from him. On Pat McAfee’s podcast, Aaron Rodgers pointed out that Stafford doesn’t get nearly enough credit for making these throws and he’s absolutely right. Stafford’s film is littered with these remarkable no-look passes that only a few quarterbacks in the league could make.

Week 4, 8:08 remaining in the third quarter, third-and-3

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Here, the Lions had receiver Marvin Jones and tight end TJ Hockenson switch release. Hockenson released outside and ran a hitch and Jones ran a route that is similar to one that McVay calls an “eliminator” route.

The Saints were in Cover 1 (man-to-man with one deep safety) with a “robber” in the middle of the field to help on short-to-intermediate in-breaking routes.

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Linebacker Alex Anzalone (No. 47) was the robber. Stafford stared down Hockenson to move Anzalone out of the middle of the field so he could hit Jones.

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Stafford’s trickery worked. Anzalone moved and Stafford was able to hit Jones for a first down on third down without ever looking at him, while taking a vicious hit.

Though no-look passes are fun, the biggest difference between him and Goff is Stafford’s ability to maneuver the pocket and make good decisions under pressure.

Week 16, 0:57 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-8

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Here, the Rams have an “all curls” concept called against the Seahawks’ Cover 3 zone.

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Goff felt pressure and climbed the pocket up the middle. The farthest inside curl was open for a first down in between two underneath zones, but Goff didn’t see him.

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Goff had plenty of space to set up for a throw or he could have made the throw right up the middle on the run. Instead, he seemed to have made up his mind to try to run for the first down as soon as he saw pressure. In zone defense, defenders have their eyes on the quarterback and they were easily able to corral Goff before he reached the marker.

For comparison sake, the play below by Stafford was made on an almost identical play call on third-and-10.

Week 13 5:45 in the first quarter, third-and-10

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The Lions had two curls inside against the Bears’ disguised three-deep zone.

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The Bears had a stunt called and Stafford had to deal with immediate pressure inside. Stafford was looking to his right but had to side-step the pressure by moving left.

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Still, he kept his eyes downfield and hit one of the curls for a first down with a perfect strike while drifting away from the pass.

According to TruMeida and Pro Football Focus charting, over the past three years, when pressured, Goff has produced -0.43 expected points added (EPA) per dropback, which ranks 29th out of 35 quarterbacks (minimum 500 dropbacks). Stafford is eighth with -0.17 EPA per dropback. Stafford’s ability to thrive under pressure and create when necessary will make Sean McVay’s life as a play caller much easier.

Nate Tice from Robert Mays’ The Athletic Football Show podcast pointed out that despite bad protection and star receiver Kenny Golladay playing in only five games this season, the Lions ranked 14th in passing DVOA, Football Outsider’s efficiency metric. Despite a much better supporting cast, the Rams ranked 20th. Aside from wins, which is a team stat, not a quarterback stat, Stafford has proven to be a superior passer than Goff. This isn’t a question. Some might question whether Stafford is an elite quarterback and whether the Rams paid too much to acquire him and that’s fair, but part of the price was to take on Goff’s contract. Even if Stafford isn’t truly a top 10 quarterback, his playmaking ability in McVay’s offense should allow him to produce like one.

(Top photo of Matthew Stafford: Robin Alam / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
 

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Ranking the Raiders’ priorities among their 23 pending free agents

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By Vic Tafur Feb 8, 2021
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The Raiders have 23 players who are set to hit the free-agent market. Spoiler alert, a lot of them shouldn’t be back. Like general manager Mike Mayock said, the Raiders had a very good offense and a terrible defense, so if you’re a defensive player on this list … maybe jump at the first offer.

The list was at 25 before tight end Jason Witten retired and backup quarterback Nathan Peterman re-signed for one more season. Peterman can battle Marcus Mariota for the backup job if Mariota re-signs for less than the $10 million he is slated to make.

There are players currently under contract who might get cut and become free agents, but this is not a story about Mariota, Tyrell Williams, Lamarcus Joyner and maybe even Trent Brown.

That’s enough suspense. Who will be a Raider next season and who is heading elsewhere? Here’s the full list, ranked in order of how Jon Gruden and Mayock likely will prioritize the group:

1. OL Denzelle Good, unrestricted free agent — Good, 29, was one of the most valuable players on the team last season, stepping in and starting 14 games up and down the offensive line. He could start at right tackle or left guard, depending on what happens to Brown and Richie Incognito. Or he could get a pretty decent offer to start for another team.

2. WR Nelson Agholor, unrestricted free agent — Agholor came into camp as the team’s No. 4 receiver and became the team’s top deep threat, finishing second in the NFL at 18.7 yards per catch. He also was one of the team’s true leaders, as we’ve covered. Agholor took the veteran minimum on a prove-it deal and obviously he did that and he deserves to test the market.

Gruden has loved him since college and must decide if he is happy with the bargain he got last year or wants to double-dip. Gruden might opt instead to put second-year players Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs III in the starting lineup and sign another veteran for less than Agholor wants.

3. DT Johnathan Hankins, unrestricted free agent — Gruden said it’s a priority to add an interior lineman who can push the pocket and get after the quarterback. That’s not Hankins, but he is a good run defender who the team likes and would bring back at a reasonable price. (They signed him to a two-year, $8.5 million deal in 2019.)

4. LB Nicholas Morrow, unrestricted free agent — The other player besides Agholor who questioned the accountability of his teammates — and the coaches. Morrow has paid his dues through some lean years and probably should go enjoy life on a different team, but it’s hard to gauge his market value. He has said he wants to come back, is solid in coverage and is a good blitzer, if a little undersized.

This one probably comes down to new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s evaluation. Whereas defensive line coach and Gruden-favorite Rod Marinelli could push for Hankins’ return, the Raiders have a new linebackers coach in Richard Smith.

5. K Daniel Carlson, restricted free agent — This one is just a formality. Gruden mentions Carlson breaking Sebastian Janikowski’s scoring record often, and the Raiders seemingly have found their kicker for a long time.

6. LS Trent Sieg, restricted free agent — See above. The Raiders love their young trio of Carlson, Sieg and punter A.J. Cole.

7. DE Kendal Vickers, restricted free agent — You gotta re-sign the guy who was fourth on the team for sacks. Unfortunately, Vickers only had two, but still … he is restricted so he will be back and Gruden loves the effort from the former CFL star.

8. DE Takkarist McKinley, unrestricted free agent — The former first-round pick failed a lot of physicals from other teams before the Raiders claimed him in November. He never did play for them, but they hope they convinced him that Las Vegas is the place to turn his career around.

9. RB Devontae Booker, unrestricted free agent — Like Agholor, Booker signed for the veteran minimum and surprised a lot of people. He backed up Josh Jacobs and ran for 423 yards at 4.5 a pop. He deserves a raise, and while that might come from the Raiders, they also may opt to draft a backup or add someone like Mark Ingram, who could replace the leadership lost by Witten’s retirement.

10. LB Kyle Wilber, unrestricted free agent — Special teams coach Rich Bisaccia’s guy. Made $1.2 million for 43 snaps on defense, but apparently is a key guy for a mediocre kick coverage unit.

11. S Erik Harris, unrestricted free agent — A bright spot in 2019, Harris really struggled last season and could be in trouble with a new coordinator and new defensive backs coach.

12. TE Derek Carrier, unrestricted free agent — The team’s No. 4 tight end last season, Carrier is a key special-teams guy and might move back up to No. 3 tight end with Witten’s departure. Just finished a three-year, $5.5 million deal with the Raiders.

13. WR Zay Jones, unrestricted free agent — Jones finished seventh on the team with 154 yards and is a Derek Carr favorite. Coaches thought Jones and Agholor were great role models for the young receivers, and it’s possible he is back as the No. 5 receiver again. He is only 25 years old.

14. DT Maliek Collins, unrestricted free agent — Gruden has mentioned how he has faith that linebacker Cory Littleton will bounce back from a bad first year with the team. He has said no such thing about Collins, who was largely invisible after Gruden called the former Cowboy “the key” to the Raiders defense last offseason. Still, though the Raiders paid him $6 million last season — are Gruden and Marinelli really going to admit they made that big a mistake rather than bring him back for a lot less money? Hmmm.

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Maliek Collins never emerged as the key to the defense he was supposed to be. (Mark J. Rebilas/ USA Today)
15. DL Chris Smith, unrestricted free agent — Smith was a feel-good story, bouncing back from tragedy to have a key role in the upset win in Kansas City. But he was quiet the rest of the way and though he is versatile, it’s hard to imagine Bradley brings him back.

16. LB Raekwon McMillan, unrestricted free agent — In a sea of bad moves, the Raiders trading a fourth-round pick to the Dolphins for a linebacker Miami was probably going to cut got lost in the current. McMillan was supposed to be a run stopper but was gashed in the loss to the Patriots and only played 110 snaps in the 13 games after that.

17. TE Nick O’Leary, unrestricted free agent — O’Leary had a heart attack last year and was inactive, but wants to play again. That the former Jaguar is not last on this list says a lot.

18. S Dallin Leavitt, restricted free agent — He has been active for 26 games in his three-year career and has never threatened for a starting role. On some really bad defenses. Mayock seems to like him and he is restricted and cheap, so roll out the red carpet.

19. DE Vic Beasley, unrestricted free agent — The Raiders gave the former first-round pick a five-game audition and he didn’t have a sack or a quarterback hit.

20. RB Theo Riddikk, unrestricted free agent — It only makes sense bringing this veteran practice-squadder back if Gruden gets cold feet on the $3.5 million that is promised to No. 3 running back Jalen Richard. But that doesn’t seem to be the case.

21. DB Nevin Lawson, unrestricted free agent — The old defensive coordinator and DBs coach forgave Lawson’s mistakes because of his veteran toughness and aggressiveness. But they are gone.

22. OT Sam Young, unrestricted free agent — The Raiders were loving the 11th-year veteran in training camp last summer. But then he was forced to play in the real games … and then often limp into the locker room.

23. CB Daryl Worley, unrestricted free agent — For who? For what? Former starter was on three teams last season for a reason.

(Photo: Kirby Lee / USA Today)
 
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