Official Climate Change Thread

MischievousMonkey

MischievousMonkey

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The last IPCC report came out and it doesn't look good:

IPCC issues ‘bleakest warning yet’ on impacts of climate breakdown

From the article:
‘Atlas of human suffering’
António Guterres, the UN secretary general, said: “I have seen many scientific reports in my time, but nothing like this. Today’s IPCC report is an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.”

John Kerry, the US special presidential envoy for climate, said the report “paints a dire picture of the impacts already occurring because of a warmer world and the terrible risks to our planet if we continue to ignore science. We have seen the increase in climate-fuelled extreme events, and the damage that is left behind – lives lost and livelihoods ruined. The question at this point is not whether we can altogether avoid the crisis – it is whether we can avoid the worst consequences.”

The report says:

  • Everywhere is affected, with no inhabited region escaping dire impacts from rising temperatures and increasingly extreme weather.

  • About half the global population – between 3.3 billion and 3.6 billion people – live in areas “highly vulnerable” to climate change.

  • Millions of people face food and water shortages owing to climate change, even at current levels of heating.

  • Mass die-offs of species, from trees to corals, are already under way.

  • 1.5C above pre-industrial levels constitutes a “critical level” beyond which the impacts of the climate crisis accelerate strongly and some become irreversible.

  • Coastal areas around the globe, and small, low-lying islands, face inundation at temperature rises of more than 1.5C.

  • Key ecosystems are losing their ability to absorb carbon dioxide, turning them from carbon sinks to carbon sources.

  • Some countries have agreed to conserve 30% of the Earth’s land, but conserving half may be necessary to restore the ability of natural ecosystems to cope with the damage wreaked on them.
Chance to avoid the worst
This is the second part of the IPCC’s latest assessment report, an updated, comprehensive review of global knowledge of the climate, which has been seven years in the making and draws on the peer-reviewed work of thousands of scientists. The assessment report is the sixth since the IPCC was first convened by the UN in 1988, and may be the last to be published while there is still some chance of avoiding the worst.

A first instalment, by the IPCC’s working group 1, published last August, on the physical science of climate change, said the climate crisis was “unequivocally” caused by human actions, resulting in changes that were “unprecedented”, with some becoming “irreversible”.

This second part, by working group 2, deals with the impacts of climate breakdown, sets out areas where the world is most vulnerable, and details how we can try to adapt and protect against some of the impacts. A third section, due in April, will cover ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and the final part, in October, will summarise these lessons for governments meeting in Egypt for the UN Cop27 climate summit.
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Yehuda

Yehuda

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We already know that climate change is having an impact on African heritage sites. The issue is gaining visibility. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other high profile bodies have recently commissioned the first white paper on climate risks to heritage globally. The paper is due in July 2022.

But measurable evidence relating to future impacts of climate change on African heritage has been negligible, limited to a handful of studies on the impacts of sea-level rise on North African cultural heritage sites.

This prompted collaboration between an international group of experts to produce some hard data. We are in the fields of climate risk, coastal modelling, coastal engineering, geographic information systems, and the archaeology and heritage of Africa. We modelled the impacts of extreme sea levels and erosion — including a one-in-100-years event — on African heritage sites.

The aim of the research was to accurately map the physical extent of African heritage sites using geo-spatial techniques and then overlay these with flood maps. The maps are based on models of extreme sea-level data. The result was an estimate of how exposed heritage sites are to sea-level rise and coastal erosion in the future. (...)

In the study, UNESCO World Heritage Sites and Ramsar Wetland Sites were included for the entire African continent. Africa is poorly represented on the UNESCO World Heritage List so the team also mapped sites on the UNESCO World Heritage Tentative Lists. A total of 284 sites were mapped; 213 natural sites and 71 cultural sites.

Combined flood and erosion models created specifically for the project were then overlaid on the map of African heritage sites. Different future climate scenarios at different time slices were modelled for exposure of sites to flooding and erosion associated with future sea levels.

The results show that 56 sites (20%) are currently at risk from the one-in-100-years event. By 2050 this number will more than triple to 191 even if carbon emissions remain moderate – the scenario that climate scientists have named RCP4.5. The number of sites exposed increases by seven to 198 (70%) under a high emission scenario. This is known as RCP8.5, or business as usual. Though only seven more sites are exposed under this scenario, the degree of exposure for each site increases significantly.

Among the most exposed cultural sites are the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria), the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt), Saloum Delta in Senegal and Kunta Kinteh in The Gambia. Cultural sites like Tipasa support local businesses that rely on the tourism revenue that the site generates.

Natural sites most exposed include Marais de la Mekhada (Algeria), Parc National du Diawling (Mauritania) and Lake Burullus (Egypt).

North and West Africa have the highest number of exposed sites while sites across small island nations are particularly at risk.

Some countries will see all of their coastal heritage exposed to extreme sea levels by the end of the century, regardless of carbon mitigation strategy. Some of these countries are classified as least developed countries on a development assistance list that provides funding. In these countries, heritage sites compete with clean water, education and energy for funding. Funding to conserve heritage sites is often a very low priority.

Countries in this position include Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Djibouti, Western Sahara, Libya, Mozambique, Mauritania and Namibia. Djibouti, the DRC, Mozambique and Mauritania are classed as least developed countries. Cameroon is a low to middle income country, Libya is a conflict zone and Western Sahara is a disputed territory. They have very few resources to reverse climate change impacts on their heritage sites. (...)

Rising sea levels may threaten 70% of Africa’s heritage sites by 2050
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