the question said assuming hes not in jail
Official Biden vs. Trump 2020 General Election Thread (Biden WINS 306 Electoral College Votes)
- Thread starter FAH1223
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the question said assuming hes not in jail
of course he wont
Eugene Debs ran for President from jail (due to his political beliefs) and got like 3% of the vote in 1920.
Piff Perkins
Veteran
No but an interesting point can be made here. What does the republican party have besides Trump? No necessarily Trump the person, but as a movement. They have shed the facade of pretending to be anything more than a racist, nationalist, authoritarian party bent on destroying democratic ideals and doling out tax cuts to corporations.
So why wouldn't Trump have a shot at winning the nomination again? It's his party. If he loses he will spend the next 3 years claiming the election was rigged and advocating lawlessness from the sidelines. He'll be on Fox nonstop. He'll be on OANN nonstop. I don't think he'll run, and of course I think he'll have legal matters that will take up most of his time...but my point is that this won't be a normal situation where a losing president gets thrown under the bus by his party and never is really cared about on the national stage again (see: Ford, Carter, HW Bush). Usually the party moves on but I don't see that happening here.
Don Jr? There are rumblings about him running for something. Does he try for president first? Would Ivanka run? Another Trump presidency may be the only way they save their business.
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
wasn’t aware of that!
The RNC is pretty much a mess but I don’t think they would nominate him if he’s in jail or he could even win the primary
hmmm
He can’t run if he’s dead though for sure?
RCP’s Thoroughly Unserious Forecast
by Evan Scrimshaw | Aug 3, 2020 | Uncategorized | 2 comments
I would genuinely love to know what RCP thinks it is doing with their election forecast, because I have spent weeks now trying to figure out what they’re doing and I’ve got nothing. Their whole purpose to the political landscape is their polling averages, and yet this map doesn’t work within the confines of their own averages, but it also doesn’t match any form of forecasting, with such a broad range of Tossups from Missouri to Minnesota that it can’t really be explained by state partisanship either.
In places, it seems to be a fairly simple average of polling, with Indiana and Missouri close on account of the fact that what limited polling we have in both states points to a massive swing to Joe Biden, and therefore, on that basis they should be competitive. In other places, they’re using the fact that a state was close in 2016 to justify their rating, like Minnesota, where the RCP average shows Biden up 9% but Hillary only won by less than 2%, so again, on that basis it’s an arguable Tossup. And then, in some other places, they’re using down ballot data from 2018 to make the case that states will be competitive, with Connecticut as Lean D being the clarion call for that one – I mean, I’m assuming it is that, because I got nothing to justify it otherwise. But RCP’s main problem is that none of these things will happen together.
Ask anyone who does US election projection, and they’ll tell you that there is no universe in which Missouri is a Tossup while Connecticut is close. This isn’t a partisan point, or a statement of any brilliance emanating from LeanTossup. Ask anybody else – the Nates Silver and Cohn, G Elliott Morris, Jack Kersting, or any of the people working at the rating agencies – and they’ll all agree with this. If Connecticut is close, then the Democrats have an avalanche of problems, and states that Trump won narrowly are going to go red, let alone a state where Trump won by 19% last time. The only answer that seems even remotely possible is that they have a few different forecasts, and they’re taking the results that get spit out of each of them, taking the closest to Tossup one of them, and making that the map. Or maybe they’re just really, really bad at this.
Either way, this isn’t a forecast as much as a Don’t Kick Me sign is a public health warning. This is an attempt to not be too wrong, because it is better to be stuck in the middle and have a decisive result than believe your own averages and be burned by a massive, unthinkably huge polling error. It is laughable that RCP thinks this is an acceptable way of building a forecast, letting fear of being wrong stop you from being right. This forecast is a claim that there is no way to accurately forecast an election, in which case, don’t bother trying. But when you offer up a forecast that is as unserious as it is laughable, you have to recognize it for what it is – the comedic relief. There’s immense value in contrary opinions and making yourself aware of other possibilities. This isn’t that – this is a wholly unserious forecast designed to avoid being too wrong, and it should be treated as such.
I'm leaning towards this race not moving for right now. Zogby at +3 means Biden is still up significantly everywhere else.
I am
mc_brew
#NotMyPresident
i've noticed an interesting dichotomy between trumpists and biden voters.... no matter how many missteps or polling dips trump suffers, trumpists never worry that he will lose the election.... for instance, there are stories that the reason trump's approval rating is so high within the republican party is because many people have left the party and it is those who remain that have high support of trump.. so even though trump's support remains high within the party, the party has shrank so that is a misleading metric... yet trumpists still think trump is super popular ... or look how underwater trump's favorability numbers are .. doesn't faze trumpists any.. or the fact that biden has been leading trump in the polls the entire election season (including the primaries)... yet trumpists don't sweat it at all... or how about unemployment numbers, covid deaths, etc... 
meanwhile, over on the biden side... biden slides in some polls to only 6% ahead of trump and there is mass hysteria.... i understand it... i get it... i'm nervous too... i have ptsd too... and biden is not a shoo in to win this.... but i'm stunned that trumpists aren't the slightest bit concerned about trump's campaign at all... what would we be saying if there was a video of biden stumbling up some stairs....? or biden fumbling over simple words that were too hard for him to pronounce....? or the dnc ratings significantly lower than the rnc ratings...? or biden's speech being panned and trump's speech being praised...? seriously, what would be happening on our side if that was the case.... yet, trumpists are cool with all of it... the confidence, the arrogance, the evil in them....
meanwhile, over on the biden side... biden slides in some polls to only 6% ahead of trump and there is mass hysteria.... i understand it... i get it... i'm nervous too... i have ptsd too... and biden is not a shoo in to win this.... but i'm stunned that trumpists aren't the slightest bit concerned about trump's campaign at all... what would we be saying if there was a video of biden stumbling up some stairs....? or biden fumbling over simple words that were too hard for him to pronounce....? or the dnc ratings significantly lower than the rnc ratings...? or biden's speech being panned and trump's speech being praised...? seriously, what would be happening on our side if that was the case.... yet, trumpists are cool with all of it... the confidence, the arrogance, the evil in them....
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The axe murderer
For I am death and I ride on a pale horse
I've always thought he would run again if he doesn't go to jail. And use the media to stay relevant.
I have zero faith in Kamala Harris winning the 2024 election so he could probably beat her because white voters can't be trusted.
2024 GOP primary is going to be a fight between moderates and Trumpists:
Mike Pence
Ted Cruz
Tom Cotton
Mike Pompeo
Nikki Haley
Trump or Trump Jr
Charlie Baker
Larry Hogan
Mitt Romney will be 77 but if he doesn't like how the GOP primary is looking, he might jump in to "save the party" from any Trump or Trumpist.
Can you imagine Trump shytting on Pence in a primary? "Pighead Pence, who kissed my ass for 4 years, now wants to separate himself from MY beautiful polices that made American great, but he could never separate his lips from my ass."
The axe murderer
For I am death and I ride on a pale horse