Ok I get it. It was just weird how when you guys talk about campaign spending, it's as if it implicitly means that this would definitely results in votes as of it was a sure thing. So I was confused and thought that the votes were bought somehow
some of that has to do with strategy..... how much money would you be willing to bet that biden wins the election...? how much you'd bet would directly correlate to how strongly you believe he will win or lose.... campaigns make the same type of calculations...
campaigns usually make spending decisions based on 4 things...
1) if they think they are definitely going to win a state, no need to spend much money there to get a win when they were going to win anyhow....
2) if they think they are definitely lose a state, they might not spend in that state because it is wasted money, they're losing anyhow...
2) if a state is a swing state that they think they can swing their way, they'll spend in that state...
3) if it's a swing state they should win, but their support is light, they'll spend to maintain that state...
michigan is a critical state that trump needs to win... any of mi, wi, or pa.... he didn't win the election last time without at least one of these states... so if trump is spending big in michigan, but then stops spending there while public polling is showing biden is consistently leading there, it's probably a sign that his campaign realizes that the state is out of reach for him... the campaign is looking at internal polls, demographics, messaging, enthusiasm, etc... so for them to bet less money on winning michigan, means they don't think they can win it....
to think about it another way, imagine you are opening up a steakhouse... one neighborhood is full of steak lovers and another neighborhood is full of vegans... which neighborhood would you spend more time advertising in....? if the trump campaign sees michigan as a neighborhood filled with too many biden supporters, they may decide to spend less money in michigan... if internal polling shows a state like wisconsin is more favorable to trump, they might spend more there....
that is why people are equating ad spending with votes...