Official Biden vs. Trump 2020 General Election Thread (Biden WINS 306 Electoral College Votes)

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

I'll probably repeat this on Election night but I always watch King. I might flip around a little but he's a master craftsman with that board

If you haven't followed previous elections try to remember that the early numbers don't mean much. It could say Trump up big in a state Biden was supposed to win or whatever but because the only votes that have been tabulated are coming from rural counties, etc..

You gotta wait until we see numbers coming in from all counties to see how it's breaking down and then start projecting from there.

 

[Dameon Farrow]

I gave you an op-ed from the pollster that got it right with the national vote right using that in their methodology.

Doesn't seem like you will tackle it so no need to carry on with the convo.

you both speak the truth....the question is who is more true. There are definitely folks still afraid to admit support but their numbers have dwindled. And some of that is definitely in the polls. I'd wager not as much as in 2016. But far from completely out of the picture.

The truth you both seek is in the middle...

 

[Piff Perkins]

If people want to talk about margin of error fine, but the idea of “shy Trump voters” is bullshyt. Nate Silver already trashed that idea. The big polling problem in 2016 was pollsters not adjusting the white vote based on education. That’s where those Trump voters were found...they weren’t shy lol. The problem for Trump is that while he’s still winning uneducated white voters, Biden is getting more of their support than Hillary did.

Everything is about margins. Trump barely won in 2016...he has no room to lose support. So when you tell me he’s doing slightly (not much!) worse with uneducated whites, significantly worse with seniors, slightly better with black people, significantly worse with suburban voters, slightly better with Hispanics, significantly worse with women...you see where I’m going right?

 

[Kyle C. Barker]

He still beat Hillary tho

He beat a Clinton and a Bush so he looks good on paper and he survived a me too moment (p*ssy grabber) before the election.

I'll always remember him as the guy who caught the league off guard his first year in the league with a gimmicky offense. Once they got 4 years of tape on the guy it was a wrap.

 

[6CertsAndAMovie]

Imagine if Trump just listened to the scientist and hadn’t downplayed the pandemic, Biden woulda had very little to run on He really has some terrible people around him.

Them Supreme Court picks cant do anything when he getting blown out

I'm not so sure until the electorates are all said and counted for

and even then I won't breathe easy til January 20th

538,NYT and the atlantic were freaking the fukk out about pence using the coronavirus(like what happens if a electorate gets covid,can pence say that the if one electorate can't be counted none of them can)/protests/natural disasters to either stop the delegates (electorates) from being counted or lower the amount of electorates (increasing the chance for a "tie") needed then the senate would elect trump and house would elect biden/harris for VP(iirc)

despite biden blowing him out, trump would still be president and he would use EO (with his supreme court advantage) to mitigate the effects of a house and senate against him

lowkey, might start a civil war tho and i don't if kavanaugh, gorsuch or even pence have the stomach to try it

sidenote: starting to think pence has a natural immunity to covid-19 that's how all his team got it and he walked out unscathed

 

[Althalucian]

White Trump people in PA lack self-esteem. They are a hurt people. If that's what puts Trump over the edge they are collectively committing suicide one way or another.

 

[Kyle C. Barker]

Where?

As for their crosstabs...




Sorry that's not happening and its normal for Trafalgar. He comes up with a number, usually 49/47 and works everything backwards from there.

Tempted to post that janky poll in TLR just to fukk with them lol

 

[Dameon Farrow]

He still beat Hillary tho

eeked out small margin wins in key battleground states. A win is a win but I've been number crunching.....I think independents that gave trump a chance in 2016 won't do it in major numbers this go round.....

 

[jj23]

cops need to be prosecuted and anyone who signed off on that bs

They can to this but in another post they are pepper spraying voters...

Madness.

 

[Piff Perkins]

These are the types of races that would be tightening if Trump was about to pull off a win. I’m not saying Trump has 0 shot. But to win he would have to basically completely and utterly discredit everything we know about polling. Last time there were clear signs that we ignored, but folks like Wasserman pointed out in real time.

 

[mitter]

when someone wins a state by 7 points that is a blowout win.. not sure why someone would phrase a poll at that margin as "slight"

You have to account for margin of error in every poll ...

It is really bad practice that the media fixates so much on point estimates rather confidence intervals

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

These are the types of races that would be tightening if Trump was about to pull off a win. I’m not saying Trump has 0 shot. But to win he would have to basically completely and utterly discredit everything we know about polling. Last time there were clear signs that we ignored, but folks like Wasserman pointed out in real time.

I've been thinking about that "is there something unaccounted for" question and all I came up with was the obvious shy Trump voter issue which I think holds maybe some water but not an 8-point swing.. turnout doesn't seem to be an issue at all, in fact it's looking to be high turnout and that usually favors Democrats as well.

I just keep going back to PA. If Trump pulled out a close win there it becomes a lot tougher for Biden but then Trump would still have to run the table with the other battleground states.. The 2016 polls weren't even that wrong and the 2018 midterm polling was spot on. All the signs are pointing to a Biden win, we are just looking for flaws in the polling somewhere.

 

[#1 pick]

Against the worst candidate ever

Trump is probably one of the strongest candidates the Republicans have had since Reagan. It's just that, he's polarizing.

Trump would whoop both Bush's asses without much of a fight. I don't see a single republican anywhere near Trump since Reagan.

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

Trump is probably one of the strongest candidates the Republicans have had since Reagan. It's just that, he's polarizing.

Trump would whoop both Bush's asses without much of a fight. I don't see a single republican anywhere near Trump since Reagan.

He’s strong because of years of his celebrity status and him not being a politician prior to holding the office ie: Reagan..

 

[New Jeruzalem Journalist]

He beat a Clinton and a Bush so he looks good on paper and he survived a me too moment (p*ssy grabber) before the election.

I'll always remember him as the guy who caught the league off guard his first year in the league with a gimmicky offense. Once they got 4 years of tape on the guy it was a wrap.

That Chip Kelly stray



But now that I think about it, him and Cheeto do kind of favor each other.



And Chip was willing to risk destroying his team (country) to protect Riley Cooper (white supremacists)




And Trump has been spending an awful lot of time in Pennsylvania lately.







Holy Shyt