THE MACHINE
night owl
Flip AZ and WI and this is my map
JB - 278
DT - 260
Election is determined 11/10 on a PA recount
Official Biden vs. Trump 2020 General Election Thread (Biden WINS 306 Electoral College Votes)
- Thread starter FAH1223
- Start date
JB - 278
DT - 260
Election is determined 11/10 on a PA recount
Reality Check
Keepin' it 100
Couple notes since I'm a resident in that district:
1) There is much more support for Schupp this year than there was in 2018 for Wagner's opponent. Think the guys name was Cort but he ran a terrible campaign thats tagline was "Where's Ann?". Wagner is spending a ton of money on ads as if she's the underdog to the point that I'd be a little surprised if she was reelected.
2) I don't expect Missouri to go blue this election, but there are more Biden signs around than I would have thought.
Reality Check
Keepin' it 100
I really think this can happen
Take your ass back to JBO
Lotta p*ssyfooting for a muhfukka that’s down damn near 10 points nationally. I don’t wanna hear the 2016 poll, shyt. He’s about to be crushed. He knows it too. Highest voter turnout .... EVER!
We celebrating in a few days:
We celebrating in a few days:
Dynamite James
The Main attraction
High quality poster
Veteran
we used to call that the walk of shame in collegeim amazed he didnt learn from the first time
EDIT: Ignore.
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1. Look at the national poll before election day happens the margin error was a full 3 percent three days before the finally day. Well with in the limit of margin of error. I am not wrong!
2. There is plenty of evidence of trump supporters not believing the system, and the pollsters that had Trump winning the last election used it in their methodology. Talked to many conservative feel like it was a scarlet letter because they don't want to be labeled a racist.
www.wsj.com/amp/articles/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-will-win-11604011863
In an interview over a catfish supper at the OK Cafe diner, Mr. Cahaly won’t reveal much about his methods, but he says his polls mitigate what social scientists call “social desirability bias.” The mainstream media and other authority figures have openly and aggressively contended that Mr. Trump is a white supremacist, a would-be dictator, a cretinous buffoon and an inveterate liar. In such an environment, poll respondents who sympathize with the president, or who believe his administration has on balance done more good than harm, may be forgiven for not saying so to a stranger over the phone.
Do people lie to pollsters? “Yes,” Mr. Cahaly says, “but they’re not necessarily doing anything wrong. If a grandmother says, ‘This is my grandson, isn’t he a handsome boy?’ and you can see he’s anything but handsome—he’s sickly and weird-looking—you don’t say, ‘No, he’s sickly and weird-looking.’ You just say, ‘He sure is.’ ”
Social desirability bias is more pronounced among some demographics, Mr. Cahaly thinks, and he claims only that Trafalgar polls minimize it. “You can’t get rid of it,” he admits. To oversimplify his approach: If a poll respondent tells you he’s voting for Candidate A but that same person answers every other question in a way that suggests he’s voting for Candidate B, the pollster may wish to account for that oddity in the overall tally. And in a year when Candidate A is said by the cultural elite across the globe to be the Source of All Bad Things, the need to reckon with disingenuous answers is perhaps more important than usual.
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Dynamite James
The Main attraction
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Day_Walker
All Star
Did you even read the rest of my post.
Even with that he could've handled this shyt better and been rewarded for it. There are actually countries that have handled this reasonably well.
I've always argued that if you go hard fast and lock everything down the short term economical pain will result in a long term economic and health positive outcome. This motherfukker wouldn't even let them contact trace when the virus was spreading in the whitehouse. He had health experts that were telling him to do all those things but ego and greed wouldn't let him.
Yes, you are wrong. Again, the margin of error did not go to Trump in the Southwest in 2016. Nationally and in the Midwest, Trump took advantage of late breaking undecided voters post-Comey letter. That change was not caught by the major polls because it occured after pollsters had conducted their finals.
There is not "plenty of evidence" of shy Trump voters or anything similar.
Here's an entire podcast by Nate Silver on it from yesterday.
Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist
The probability of Trump voters lying to polls is also low because most polls have 10-15 questions in addition to the main one and its almost statically impossible for a significant amount of Trump voters to impersonate Democratic voters to a T.
Day_Walker
All Star
Like I said before, once the elections over they better stop playing games. I'm guessing both biden/harris will be getting secret service or at least increase of security if they already have secret service. Those guys better be on their A game and be ready to shoot any of these magats at the smallest sign of trouble. GO early, go hard, they will STFU and sit down real quick. Deep down they're all pussies .
No for the white supracist terrorists, they better dedicate a taskforce to that. That shyt is gonna ramp up over the next 4 years.
