The numbers of Black voters casting ballots by mail or at early voting sites so far is leading Democratic strategists to suggest final Black turnout numbers could rival historic levels seen in the 2008 and 2012 elections that put Barack Obama in the White House and kept him there for a second term.
“I think it will look a lot like what Obama did in 2012,” veteran Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale said Wednesday in a Zoom press briefing with the Democratic-allied analytics firm Hawkfish and the BlackPAC political action committee.
The math is complicated. What’s more, Schale, who this year serves as chief executive of the Unite The Country PAC, cautioned that absolutely nothing occurring in 2020 voting trends has any precedent that could lead to easy assumptions.
Yet he, BlackPAC Executive Director Adrianne Shropshire, and Hawkfish Chief Executive Josh Mendelsohn contended Wednesday they are very encouraged that Black voter turnout through early Wednesday already is 95% of what was seen for all early-voting and vote-by-mail returns in 2016, with nearly a week to go.
One key number within that:
Black voters make up 12.5% of those who’ve already voted. While that proportion is below their 13% proportion of the total voter base, it is well ahead of what is usually seen for the counts of early- and vote-by-mail balloting.
With Black voters historically voting late in early voting or on Election Day, the proportion of the voting that is cast by Black voters tends to climb late, Schale said. In 2008 and 2012, the final proportion was about 13.5%, he said.
“I think that’s very doable,” Schale said.
“Typically at this point, six days out, Black voters would make up 9, 10, 10.5, maybe 11 percent of the electorate,” Schale said.
“As history will tell us, Black folks prefer to vote in person,” Shropshire said. She added that direct voter outreach is finding many Black voters insisting they intend to vote on Election Day.
Here’s why it matters.
Much of the battle for Republicans and their campaigns has been over driving up targeted voter turnouts among White voters, whose
voter registrations in Florida slightly favor Republicans, and Hispanic voters, whose
voter registrations slightly favor Democrats.
There’s no such nuance in the Black vote. However much Republicans and President Donald Trump‘s campaign have been trying to change historic deficits with efforts like
Black Voices for Trump, Black
voter registration is overwhelmingly Democratic. So any increase in Black turnout is almost an automatic boost for Democrats.
There were some down numbers that concerned the Democratic strategists. Black turnout is running less than anticipated in some big counties, particularly Miami-Dade County. Young Black voters are not turning out in impressive numbers yet.
Still, Shropshire said voter outreach is finding a very high energy among Black voters, whom she believes will not be dissuaded by any concerns over in-person voting.
“People want this President gone, and they are prepared to do what is necessary to make that real.”