Official Biden vs. Trump 2020 General Election Thread (Biden WINS 306 Electoral College Votes)

[ExodusNirvana]

I wouldn't take Trafalgar or Rasmussen seriously

They are biased towards Republicans and as the saying goes, "a broken clock is right twice a day"

There are a lot of reliable polls that show things within the MOE though and that's what worries me

 

[OfTheCross]

Trafalgar Group Polling Predicts Trump Win | National Review

So how does he see the 2020 race? Fundamentally, as a motivation race, rather than a persuasion race, with perhaps 1.5 percent, at most, of the electorate undecided in battleground states.

The likeliest Trump electoral path to victory involves winning the battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania among the former Blue Wall states (assuming he doesn’t lose states such as Iowa or Ohio).

This is Cahaly’s breakdown: He believes Trump will win North Carolina and Florida and discounts Biden’s chances in Georgia because the Republican-base vote is too big there (the same is true in Texas).

As for Arizona, “I think Trump has the lead,” Cahaly says. “I think [Republican senator Martha] McSally has some ground to make up. I see her about five points behind Trump, but I think Trump will probably win the state. And win it by a couple of points or more. And if he wins it big enough, McSally has a shot.”

Trump isn’t there yet in Pennsylvania, according to Cahaly. “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”


Aight...someone make me feel better about this. This guy is on point with his shyt

 

[Tony D'Amato]

So how does he see the 2020 race? Fundamentally, as a motivation race, rather than a persuasion race, with perhaps 1.5 percent, at most, of the electorate undecided in battleground states.

The likeliest Trump electoral path to victory involves winning the battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania among the former Blue Wall states (assuming he doesn’t lose states such as Iowa or Ohio).

This is Cahaly’s breakdown: He believes Trump will win North Carolina and Florida and discounts Biden’s chances in Georgia because the Republican-base vote is too big there (the same is true in Texas).

As for Arizona, “I think Trump has the lead,” Cahaly says. “I think [Republican senator Martha] McSally has some ground to make up. I see her about five points behind Trump, but I think Trump will probably win the state. And win it by a couple of points or more. And if he wins it big enough, McSally has a shot.”

Trump isn’t there yet in Pennsylvania, according to Cahaly. “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”


Aight...someone make me feel better about this. This guy is on point with his shyt

They're CONCERN TROLLING

 

[winb83]

So how does he see the 2020 race? Fundamentally, as a motivation race, rather than a persuasion race, with perhaps 1.5 percent, at most, of the electorate undecided in battleground states.

The likeliest Trump electoral path to victory involves winning the battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania among the former Blue Wall states (assuming he doesn’t lose states such as Iowa or Ohio).

This is Cahaly’s breakdown: He believes Trump will win North Carolina and Florida and discounts Biden’s chances in Georgia because the Republican-base vote is too big there (the same is true in Texas).

As for Arizona, “I think Trump has the lead,” Cahaly says. “I think [Republican senator Martha] McSally has some ground to make up. I see her about five points behind Trump, but I think Trump will probably win the state. And win it by a couple of points or more. And if he wins it big enough, McSally has a shot.”

Trump isn’t there yet in Pennsylvania, according to Cahaly. “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”


Aight...someone make me feel better about this. This guy is on point with his shyt

Trafalgar leans republican hard and so does the National Review.

 

[Reality Check]

As for Arizona, “I think Trump has the lead,” Cahaly says. “I think [Republican senator Martha] McSally has some ground to make up. I see her about five points behind Trump, but I think Trump will probably win the state. And win it by a couple of points or more. And if he wins it big enough, McSally has a shot.”

Aight...someone make me feel better about this. This guy is on point with his shyt

Arizona Polls

Conveniently leaves out the part of Biden being ahead in Arizona by a couple points in almost all polls, so she's running probably 7-10 points behind her Dem challenger. As I was saying to a friend of mine last night, I don't think there is enough ballot splitting in Arizona for Trump to win if McSally is that far behind. Rare case of someone doing more damage for Trump than Trump himself.

 

[OfTheCross]

Trafalgar leans republican hard and so does the National Review.

I know. But that doesn't mean they're wrong.

The National Review is #neverTrump and actually a reputable conservative publication

 

[acri1]

I'm less concerned that Trafalgar is right than I am that other polls are wrong. You never know how much of a hidden vote there is.

Hopefully Biden can do something to shore up turnout among black/brown voters these last few weeks because I see as much "both sides" rhetoric on social media as ever.

 

[winb83]

VOPP Table 16: When Absentee/Mail Ballot Processing and Counting Can Begin


In states that actually matter, i don't see it as an issue.

You'll pretty much know election day how things will play out. Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina will have some type of results when polls close. Ohio might too. Those are the states minus Arizona if Biden wins it should be over.

 

[Sohh_lifted]

Dropped off my ballott at the supervisor of elections office, fukk Trump.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

 

[DJ Paul's Arm]

"Advisers now fear that, because the state counts and reports both day-of and mail-in votes together on election night, losing North Carolina could be a clear white flag."

 

[DrDealgood]

I know. But that doesn't mean they're wrong.

The National Review is #neverTrump and actually a reputable conservative publication

Their methodology and data in the swing states is like switching your integers from 2 to 6.374472 and expecting 2+2 to still equal 4. It's a lot of hand waving and wishful thinking.

No, it's not impossible they'll be right, but it's extremely unlikely. If it weren't, dozens of other better respected polling outfits would have results much closer to them. In order for their predictions to be right everywhere they say, the in person Trump vote on 11/3 would have to be massive in just the right places or the level of cheating and fukkery overwhelming or both.

Trump stans are nowhere near as motivated to reelect him as everyone else is to get his ass kicked to the curb.

 

[Reality Check]

Trump stans are nowhere near as motivated to reelect him as everyone else is to get his ass kicked to the curb.

The silent majority Trump speaks of has become the obnoxiously loud minority in a sense.

 

[Dynamite James]

I really hope Trump doesn’t win smh

 

[MoneyTron]

I know. But that doesn't mean they're wrong.

The National Review is #neverTrump and actually a reputable conservative publication

Trafalgar's bullshyt "shy Trump" adjustment is just that, bullshyt.

There's absolutely nothing to suggest the polls are biased against Trump, as they were biased toward Romney and the Republicans in 2012. They could just as easily underestimate Biden.

If you look their polls closely, it ends being a +6 Republican adjustment they put on the polling average for where ever they're polling.

Not to be trusted. Throw them in the average with everyone else.