Official Biden vs. Trump 2020 General Election Thread (Biden WINS 306 Electoral College Votes)

[BK The Great]

 

[jerniebert]

 

[Cognito]

Favor Biden in Arizona. One in County polls he is running margins for his victory. Two he's running alongside an extremely strong senate candidate going against an extremely unpopular unelected woman. The governor of Arizona only has a 30% approval rating.

 

[AquaCityBoy]

Rose Twitter's finest speaks again on the SOTU

If only we had M4A there'd be no white supremacist militia groups.

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

More than 6.6 million Americans have already voted, suggesting record turnout — Reuters

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

With election day looming, Twitter imposes new limits on U.S. politicians -- and ordinary users, too — The Washington Post

 

[OfTheCross]

More than 6.6 million Americans have already voted, suggesting record turnout — Reuters

Dope shyt.

I wish turnout was even higher

 

[MoneyTron]

I have a suspicion that a lot of these polls, not this one but others, are doing what is herding of polls


This typically occurs the further you're away from the election and then they start to adjust to be more realistic the close you get to the election. Its a legit problem and this is why I never buy into polls that aren't just at most a few weeks out from election day. I still don't trust them now. When we get to the last week or two before the election that is when I'll start putting a lot of stock in them. You'll see them close to be tighter and tighter and they are more likely to reflect the true nature of the race.

I'm getting more skeptical that Biden will pull an upset like some of these polls are predicting now. I think he will win PA and may win one of MI or WI which will be enough for him to get 270. But all this shyt about him winning Georgia and possibly even AZ (Though I think Dems will win the senate) are far-fetched.

I have feeling that these polls are more accurate than those that show Biden leading by 5 or 6 in AZ.

Biden has been averaging 8+ nationally for 5 months now. That's pretty much in line with what we've been seeing at a state level. I don't know why you'd take a Trafalgar poll of all pollsters more seriously than any other.

Georgia went to Trump by 5 points in 2016 with a much more favorable national environment. Stacey Abrams performnce here should be a big sign of the changing demographics. BTW, the UGA said the margin between Biden and Trump was statistically insignificant and should be read as tied. I think the numbers in upper midwest with Biden up 5-7 points, AZ at 2-4, and in tossup categories with GA and NC are accurate.

Don't see why they wouldn't be given the trends through 2016 and 2018.

 

[DrDealgood]

Record-breaking numbers on first day of early voting in Cuyahoga County

 

[jj23]

 

[GzUp]

2020 Election Forecast

 

[GzUp]

Biden is peaking

 

[jwinfield]

 

[OfTheCross]

ngl, Trump sounds super coherent on Rush's show rn

 

[Dr. Acula]

Biden has been averaging 8+ nationally for 5 months now. That's pretty much in line with what we've been seeing at a state level. I don't know why you'd take a Trafalgar poll of all pollsters more seriously than any other.

Georgia went to Trump by 5 points in 2016 with a much more favorable national environment. Stacey Abrams performnce here should be a big sign of the changing demographics. BTW, the UGA said the margin between Biden and Trump was statistically insignificant and should be read as tied. I think the numbers in upper midwest with Biden up 5-7 points, AZ at 2-4, and in tossup categories with GA and NC are accurate.

Don't see why they wouldn't be given the trends through 2016 and 2018.

I get what you're saying and you won't get disagreement from me. But, these overly optimistic polls this far out from election days from past experiences have shown me not to put too much stock in them. I am much more likely as a result to believe polls that show it to be a close race.

Now if Biden is still leading the way he is now on the last week before election day, then I'll feel more confident. But time and time again, pollsters have either shown a habit of doing the herding I mentioned or its simply that people gravitate closer and close to their usual political camps as the election day gets closer and the race always tightens as you get closer as a result. We'll see.