storyteller
Veteran
Our discussion is about whose approach gets us closest to M4A. You claimed Warren has the more pragmatic approach and I'm saying, it's a pragmatic approach to getting a Public Option and a Medicaid expansion but not a more pragmatic pathway to M4A OR to get us closest to that.
2. I think the negotiating approach you're outlining makes sense in theory, but I don't think that's how it will work in practice. Political negotiations aren't math where you add 1 and subtract 1. Joe Manchin's optimal position isn't to eradicate healthcare. He voted no on repealing Obamacare and is already on paper as supporting a public option expansion. He just doesn't believe in M4A, so what is Bernie going to do in a negotiation to move him to accepting M4A? We know what Bernie has been saying he would do, which is threatening to hold rallies in WV and support a primary of Manchin...who isn't up for reelection until 4 years after this negotiation would be taking place. It's a frankly ridiculous negotiating strategy. But let's say Bernie is smarter than he's been acting and he begins negotiating in earnest. He presents his full M4A bill and Manchin says no. Bernie asks what has to be removed to get him to support it, and Manchin says to remove the private insurance ban. This is the lynchpin of Bernie's full M4A plan, and its the major difference between his plan and Warren's plan. It's the main thing standing between Manchin's stated position and Bernie's stated position. There is no negotiation taking place before a private insurance ban is taken off the table because Manchin holds all the cards. He's the key vote on this, not Bernie. He's the Lieberman to Bernie's Obama. Basically what you're arguing is that Bernie will have the pleasure of being told "No." to his face before starting real negotiations on an actual viable plan...which is where Warren is already at. And oh yeah, keeping a private insurance ban in the M4A bill means that Bernie isn't even having this discussion with Manchin, he's having it with McConnell. Bernie's gonna have to get rid of that provision from the jump if he even wants to begin negotiating with Manchin.
Warren's transition plan is her being real and not assuming her constituency are low-info idiots.
Anyway, the point is that under a Warren or Sanders administration, there would be a sufficient political mandate to expand healthcare. Every democrat is on record as supporting advancing the ball from Obamacare. What will determine who is able to extract the best deal isn't the starting position, it'll be who is the better negotiator and politician. Warren has already been doing the work of ingratiating herself to these key votes ("spirited defense of Joe Manchin") which is a better strategy for getting their support than spitting in their face by telling them you'll primary them. Bolder does not always equal smarter.
This premise misses an important part of this story. Manchin has been moving left on the issue. The centrists warming up to a Public Option and expressing an openness to exploring single-payer is movement to the left created by growing consensus. Why stop pushing without forcing an explicit no? You say who will extract the best deal won't be determined by starting position, but starting by giving away leverage in the negotiation means you've already handicapped your negotiations. Maybe Manchin does become Lieberman, but you make him be that and carry that legacy moving forward. You don't let him off the hook and kiss his ass. And again, stop insulting Bernie supporters for actually wanting to pass M4A and not being willing to give up the fight before it's tried. Bernie's supporters aren't low info idiots, they just have a different approach. They don't feel certainty that Bernie can get M4A done, they're just positive that Warren has already conceded the chance. You're not even denying as much, you're just trying to justify it.
Her actual proposal is to pass a Public Option by year two and THEN switch over to passing M4A. That's obviously pie in the sky but I have enough appreciation for Warren supporters to know that they know better.
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