Official 2020 Democratic Primary Debate Thread
- Thread starter mc_brew
- Start date
A few WarrenGs, some toms for TomWho trying to join the wave with suspect records?
Yeah I identified @wire28 running to Warren G’s a while back but ima forgive his transgressions. Everyone else tho
I remember @FAH1223 showing a poll that had Bernie within 3-4 points of Biden in SC
There were multiple including the NBC Marist one
It's completely possible those really were the accurate numbers at that time. Exit polls show that 47% of voters stated that Rep. Clyburn's endorsement was "very important" or "the most important" factor in their vote, and Clyburn didn't endorse until Wednesday. If that's true, then it's very easy to believe that half of Biden's support didn't come until the end of the race.
Do you believe these were voters who had already settled on an candidate and switched to Biden, or were these undecided voters that were baked into the polling?
Both, as well as voters who had chosen Biden already but were made much more confident after Clyburn's endorsement and considered that a factor even though they were already going to vote for Biden anyway.
The day before Clyburn's endorsement, the rolling average looked like this:
Biden: 30
Bernie: 22
Steyer: 13
Warren: 9
Buttigieg: 9
Klobuchar: 4
Gabbard: 3
Undecided: 10
It's worth noting that that was already a big jump from earlier in the week. Before the debate, Biden was only at 23, Bernie was at 21, Steyer was at 16, Buttigieg was at 11, and Klobuchar was at 7 (undecideds were also 11). So Biden's solid debate performance had already pulled away some support from Steyer, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and the undecideds (while Warren and Bernie were essentially unchanged after the debate). So Biden already had some momentum.
Let's pretend that Clyburn's endorsement was the only major factor that changed shyt in the last three days. That would suggest that Clyburn's endorsement meant nearly all the undecideds ran to Biden, and he also pulled off 1-2% from each of the other candidates.
That's a huge fukking factor. It would legitimately suggest to me that if Clyburn had endorsed Bernie, it is very believable that Bernie might have squeezed out a win or at least made it very close and the race would be effectively over. Or, if Clyburn had endorses Steyer, Warren, or Buttigieg, it could have propelled any of those three to a very close 3-way race with Sanders and Biden and injected new life into their campaign. This has to be the most consequential endorsement I remember seeing so soon before a primary.
Props for the breakdown
newworldafro
DeeperThanRapBiggerThanHH
Buttigieg and Steyer gone.
Biden has a solid shot at winning now. Mayor Pete's supporters are more likely to go to him than Bernie.
GnauzBookOfRhymes
Superstar
You can't trust polls with so many contenders. People are fickle. Some of these people probably fluctuate between 2/3 candidates on a daily basis. Also these media orgs who oftentimes sponsor these polls have a very direct interest in "massaging" the numbers when it comes to the turnout/likely voter models they used. At the end of the day, maybe 1% of the people following the news will dig into those numbers, let alone know how they may affect the reported percentages.
I honestly believe Bernie's numbers would not look very impressive if this were a 2 man race. Yes he definitely has a core group of die hard supporters, but I think against Biden he won't even hit the mid 40s.
I can't find them now, but earlier there were some head-to-head two man polls and Bernie beat Biden straight up.
I have been said the Deep South was Biden lock. All the southern black congressmen will overlook their constituents to endorse the most established candidate. Biden will get Alabama, Tennesee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas on Tuesday. Thank gawd, its low delegates states.