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Ahead of the 2015 NFL draft, Insider is providing guides for all 32 teams: biggest need positions from Football Outsiders, top prospect targets from scouts Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl and predictions on how everything will play out from our NFL Nation team reporters.
Included below are links to every team's article. This is the entry for the New York Jets
Roster needs
Biggest need: Quarterback --
Geno Smith's defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) ranked him
43rd as a rookie and
32nd last year. Over the past 25 years, the only quarterbacks who have started their careers in similarly poor fashion but then became good starters are No. 1 overall picks (Troy Aikman,
Alex Smith). Geno Smith's probability of developing even into a quarterback of Alex Smith's quality is very small.
Quiet need: Edge rusher -- The Jets were
fourth in adjusted sack rate last year, but their strength came up the middle, with
Sheldon Richardson leading the team in sacks. They could use an edge rusher such as
Vic Beasley or
Randy Gregory,
who project well by Football Outsiders' SackSEER forecast system.
Not a need: Cornerback -- No team at any position has topped the Jets' makeover of their cornerback depth chart this offseason. In addition to Revis and
Antonio Cromartie, the Jets added
Buster Skrine, a key cog from the NFL's
second-best pass defense of 2014. That depth means both that Todd Bowles can feel free to blitz away and that the Jets can fill other positions in the draft.
--Andrew Healy, Football Outsiders
Prospect targets 2015 NFL DRAFT
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon (Day 1): At 6-foot-4 and 222 pounds, Mariota has the frame, arm strength and mobility to develop into a franchise quarterback. There are concerns about his ability to excel in a pro-style offense and his footwork as it relates to his accuracy, but he's a proven winner and above-average decision-maker with the confidence and work ethic to get there. Signing
Ryan Fitzpatrick was smart considering Smith's struggles, but neither of them appears to be the long-term answer. The Jets should consider Mariota at No. 6 if he slips to them, or even trading up to get him if it's not cost-prohibitive.
Nate Orchard, OLB, Utah (Day 2): Orchard doesn't have the burst or closing speed of the top edge rushers in this class. However, he's an above-average hand fighter with above-average power, so he doesn't have to win with quickness -- and he is relentless. He also has the skill set to develop into an effective run stopper.
Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina (Day 3): Davis didn't run well at the combine and his production dropped last year, but he could prove to be a Day 3 steal. For starters, he ran far better at his pro day and he's not speed-deficient on tape. More importantly, he's an outstanding competitor who makes the most of his blocks and regularly picks up yards after contact.
--
Steve Muench, Scouts Inc.
Predictions
1. It could be defense for the sixth straight year: The Jets haven't picked an offensive player in the first round since quarterback
Mark Sanchez in 2009. The streak could continue, as defensive-minded coach Todd Bowles looks for an edge rusher to complement his rebuilt secondary and loaded defensive line. The most likely targets are Vic Beasley,
Shane Ray and Randy Gregory. It sounds like overkill, but edge rusher is one of the strengths of the draft, and the Jets need some young legs to eventually replace
Calvin Pace and
Jason Babin.
2. They will draft a quarterback, but it might not be Marcus Mariota:Sure, they'd give Mariota strong consideration with the sixth pick (does anybody really think they're satisfied with Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick) but there's a good chance the former Oregon star won't make it that far. In that case, look for them to target a quarterback in the subsequent rounds, with
Bryce Petty and
Garrett Grayson as top candidates.
3. Beware, Trader Mike: With two trades and several high-profile, free-agent signings, new general manager Mike Maccagnan already has shown he's not a wallflower. He will take that aggressive mindset into the draft, although he's somewhat limited by having only six picks. Look for him to inquire about trading up for Mariota, but the cost could be prohibitive.
--
Rich Cimini, NFL Nation Jets reporter