No More Accountants! The 2014-2015 New York Jets Off-season Thread
- Thread starter King Crimson
- Start date
Yikes
Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
SackSEER Projection: 21.7 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 43.3%
Dante Fowler's forecast is boosted by his high projected draft position. Otherwise, SackSEER thinks that Fowler is an excellent candidate to join Derrick Harvey, Jarvis Moss, and Jermaine Cunningham in the ever-growing stable of disappointing Florida Gators edge rushers. There does not seem to be anything magical about Florida that causes their edge rushers to bust -- Harvey, Moss, and Cunningham each had poor SackSEER projections, and Fowler fits the same mold. Fowler recorded only 14.5 sacks during his entire three-year career; that's only 2.5 more than Vic Beasley recorded in his senior year alone. Fowler had a nice 4.60-second 40-yard dash, but he performed poorly on the vertical jump, the broad jump, and the three-cone, which are equally important, but often overlooked.
Note that many scouting reports on Fowler emphasize his versatility, as he is also prized for his ability to set the edge against the run and drop into coverage. (Yesterday's Futures column by Matt Waldman gives some good examples of why Fowler is not just an edge rusher.) SackSEER is only projecting his pass-rushing performance in the NFL, so perhaps he is a more valuable player than this forecast would indicate. However, you may remember another recent prospect who was rated as mediocre by SackSEER despite his overall versatility: Dion Jordan.
Shane Ray, Missouri
SackSEER Projection: 20.4 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 18.5%
Of all the edge rusher prospects available in the 2015 NFL draft, Shane Ray is the most likely to disappoint. As far as similar edge rusher prospects, Ray draws the most dreaded comp of all: Vernon Gholston. Like Ray, Gholston rocketed to the top of draft boards on the strength of his strong junior year, but he also had an exceptionally poor pass defensed rate, with only three passes defensed during a three-year career. Ray was even worse on this score, recording only one pass defensed during his entire college career.
Ray finished third in FBS with 14.5 sacks last year, but he had no sacks as a freshman and only 4.5 as a sophomore, so he scores just decently in the SRAM metric. Players who have benefited from SRAM boosting their SackSEER projections are guys like Terrell Suggs, who had 44 sacks in three years at Arizona State. Historically, too many players who have thrown down multiple double-digit sack seasons in their college careers for SackSEER to be terribly impressed with Ray's one good season.
The other dilemma is how to interpret Ray's workout results from Missouri's pro day. Despite a reputation as an athletic player, Ray was just a little better than average on his 40-yard dash, and inconsistent on his jumps. However, he may have been hampered by a foot injury suffered during the Citrus Bowl, which prevented him from working out at the combine. The foot injury could be why Ray had a horrible three-cone time of 7.70 seconds, which would rank as the 12th slowest in SackSEER's entire database.
It is not all bleak for Ray, as similar players such as Ray Edwards, Derrick Burgess, and Calvin Pace had some pass rushing success. However, Ray's profile makes him a huge risk in the top half of the first round. You're gambling that his inconsistent workouts were the result of an injury from 10 weeks prior; that his lack of performance as a freshman and sophomore came because lesser NFL prospects Kony Ealy (round two) and Michael Sam (round seven) kept him on the bench; and that his lack of passes defensed is a massive statistical fluke. That's a lot of gambles.
Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
SackSEER Projection: 21.7 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 43.3%
Dante Fowler's forecast is boosted by his high projected draft position. Otherwise, SackSEER thinks that Fowler is an excellent candidate to join Derrick Harvey, Jarvis Moss, and Jermaine Cunningham in the ever-growing stable of disappointing Florida Gators edge rushers. There does not seem to be anything magical about Florida that causes their edge rushers to bust -- Harvey, Moss, and Cunningham each had poor SackSEER projections, and Fowler fits the same mold. Fowler recorded only 14.5 sacks during his entire three-year career; that's only 2.5 more than Vic Beasley recorded in his senior year alone. Fowler had a nice 4.60-second 40-yard dash, but he performed poorly on the vertical jump, the broad jump, and the three-cone, which are equally important, but often overlooked.
Note that many scouting reports on Fowler emphasize his versatility, as he is also prized for his ability to set the edge against the run and drop into coverage. (Yesterday's Futures column by Matt Waldman gives some good examples of why Fowler is not just an edge rusher.) SackSEER is only projecting his pass-rushing performance in the NFL, so perhaps he is a more valuable player than this forecast would indicate. However, you may remember another recent prospect who was rated as mediocre by SackSEER despite his overall versatility: Dion Jordan.
Shane Ray, Missouri
SackSEER Projection: 20.4 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 18.5%
Of all the edge rusher prospects available in the 2015 NFL draft, Shane Ray is the most likely to disappoint. As far as similar edge rusher prospects, Ray draws the most dreaded comp of all: Vernon Gholston. Like Ray, Gholston rocketed to the top of draft boards on the strength of his strong junior year, but he also had an exceptionally poor pass defensed rate, with only three passes defensed during a three-year career. Ray was even worse on this score, recording only one pass defensed during his entire college career.
Ray finished third in FBS with 14.5 sacks last year, but he had no sacks as a freshman and only 4.5 as a sophomore, so he scores just decently in the SRAM metric. Players who have benefited from SRAM boosting their SackSEER projections are guys like Terrell Suggs, who had 44 sacks in three years at Arizona State. Historically, too many players who have thrown down multiple double-digit sack seasons in their college careers for SackSEER to be terribly impressed with Ray's one good season.
The other dilemma is how to interpret Ray's workout results from Missouri's pro day. Despite a reputation as an athletic player, Ray was just a little better than average on his 40-yard dash, and inconsistent on his jumps. However, he may have been hampered by a foot injury suffered during the Citrus Bowl, which prevented him from working out at the combine. The foot injury could be why Ray had a horrible three-cone time of 7.70 seconds, which would rank as the 12th slowest in SackSEER's entire database.
It is not all bleak for Ray, as similar players such as Ray Edwards, Derrick Burgess, and Calvin Pace had some pass rushing success. However, Ray's profile makes him a huge risk in the top half of the first round. You're gambling that his inconsistent workouts were the result of an injury from 10 weeks prior; that his lack of performance as a freshman and sophomore came because lesser NFL prospects Kony Ealy (round two) and Michael Sam (round seven) kept him on the bench; and that his lack of passes defensed is a massive statistical fluke. That's a lot of gambles.
King P
Legends Never Die
I see a lot of Demarco Murray in Coleman
Spaceman Piff
Superstar
all 3 of them have that same running posture.. murray might play a lil different now.
Here's all of the pass rushers projections. They love Beasley, Gregory and Dupree....do not like Fowler or Ray.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/sackseer-2015
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/sackseer-2015
Who is gonna play QB?
I see yall taking about pass rushers.
I see yall taking about pass rushers.
Depends if Mariota is at 6. If not probably Fitz.
tremonthustler1
aka bx_representer
might as well play the lotto too
I think Mariotta and sitting him is a good idea, a lot of possible good QB's get ruined cause they get thrusted into bad offenses and their confidence is shot after 1-2 bad years.
Geno, a guy who i never liked, but saw some flashes from, is a guy who probably could have used 1-2 years watching.
Best QB in the game is a guy who benefitted from watching (Rodgers or Brady, take your choice)