Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich described the NBA rights renewal as "critical" to WBD's future given that TNT boasts the highest carriage fees, or fees pay-TV providers pay to network owners to carry their channels, out of all of the company's cable networks at an estimated $3 per subscriber.
"Should they lose these rights, there is a real risk WBD will not be able to maintain these affiliate fees in upcoming negotiations," she said.
Moreover, flagship content like the NBA is "typically used as a hook for negotiations with distributors that can drive carriage/rates across the rest of the portfolio."
"In light of
the recent Disney/Charter renewal, the loss of the NBA could also have a derivative impact across the rest of WBD's cable networks which could have negative implications to WBD's future earnings power," Ehrlich warned.
Citi analyst Jason Bazinet estimated a $250 million hit to adjusted EBITDA should the company lose the media rights, driven by a $270 million loss in annual ad revenue and a potential 45% decline in TNT's affiliate fees.
"Despite all the other assets at WBD, from its streaming service to films and games, the company still is first and foremost driven by its linear networks," MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman added in a note published on Thursday.
Fishman said the company's networks segment accounted for 51% of overall revenue and 89% of EBITDA last year with TNT estimated to have contributed roughly 30% to total domestic linear distribution revenue.
"TNT [is] one of the biggest drivers [of the networks segment]," the analyst wrote. "It is clear NBA is an anchor to TNT’s schedule."