Negotiating tactic. I only watch TNT for NBA.
New NBA Media Deal: 11 years, $77B with Disney (ABC/ESPN), Comcast (NBC/Peacock), and Amazon. ESPN to license Inside the NBA
- Thread starter Anerdyblackguy
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Negotiating tactic. I only watch TNT for NBA.
Pretty solid for the NBA. I think they'll be able to sell off the IST and maybe the playin tournament as separate properties ie similar to how the EPL and FA Cup are on different network
One might have noticed in looking at those numbers that the non-tournament average is higher than that of the IST. Indeed it is. Much of that has to do with the inclusion of Opening Week games, which are among the most-watched of any regular season. Yet even with those excluded, the non-tournament average remains higher at 1.63 million. The sample size is low — ESPN and TNT have combined for only ten games this season outside of the IST and Opening Week — but those run-of-the-mill regular season windows are averaging more viewers.
How does one square the following? IST viewership is no match for ordinary, meaningless regular season games, yet is outpacing last year at a far greater clip. One explanation is that last year’s Tuesday and Friday night games — the nights when IST group play games were held this season — were particularly mediocre. Those games averaged 1.20 million, compared to 1.86 million for games on other nights (1.63 million excluding Opening Week). Essentially, the IST shored up the weakest plank of the early season NBA audience.
In so doing, the tournament has achieved the NBA’s objective — not to create playoff-level audiences in December, but to give the league some juice on low-viewership nights. The NBA has largely stopped competing against Thursday Night Football, yet thanks to the IST averaged 2.1 million viewers (a strong number by regular season standards) for the Lakers’ 44-point rout of the Pelicans Thursday. Yes, LeBron James and the Lakers helped, but there is no universe in which a 44-point December rout of New Orleans is drawing that kind of audience on any night, regardless of the opponent — much less opposite the NFL.
Breaking down In-Season Tournament ratings
Through Thursday’s semifinals, NBA In-Season Tournament games were averaging 1.5 million viewers on ESPN and TNT (1.4 million including a pair of Black Friday afternoon games on NBA TV). Compared to the equivalent windows last season, IST viewership is up more than a quarter — 26% — from 1.2 million. By comparison, the overall NBA average on those networks is up 11% (from 1.57 to 1.74 million), and the average for non-tournament games is up a modest 5% (from 1.86 to 1.95 million). Excluding Opening Week, the non-tournament average is basically flat, with 1.63 million both this year and last.One might have noticed in looking at those numbers that the non-tournament average is higher than that of the IST. Indeed it is. Much of that has to do with the inclusion of Opening Week games, which are among the most-watched of any regular season. Yet even with those excluded, the non-tournament average remains higher at 1.63 million. The sample size is low — ESPN and TNT have combined for only ten games this season outside of the IST and Opening Week — but those run-of-the-mill regular season windows are averaging more viewers.
How does one square the following? IST viewership is no match for ordinary, meaningless regular season games, yet is outpacing last year at a far greater clip. One explanation is that last year’s Tuesday and Friday night games — the nights when IST group play games were held this season — were particularly mediocre. Those games averaged 1.20 million, compared to 1.86 million for games on other nights (1.63 million excluding Opening Week). Essentially, the IST shored up the weakest plank of the early season NBA audience.
In so doing, the tournament has achieved the NBA’s objective — not to create playoff-level audiences in December, but to give the league some juice on low-viewership nights. The NBA has largely stopped competing against Thursday Night Football, yet thanks to the IST averaged 2.1 million viewers (a strong number by regular season standards) for the Lakers’ 44-point rout of the Pelicans Thursday. Yes, LeBron James and the Lakers helped, but there is no universe in which a 44-point December rout of New Orleans is drawing that kind of audience on any night, regardless of the opponent — much less opposite the NFL.
Marchand make this projection 2.0:
Why we are betting the over: The NBA is a very desired commodity. Let’s make that clear. But to maximize value on the next round of deals, it may need at least four partners. Let’s enumerate the reasons:
Though Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery both want to retain the NBA, the feeling is they will be satisfied with fewer regular-season games. They still will increase what they are paying. The growing belief is ESPN’s Wednesday regular-season games will largely go away, and TNT could move to just Tuesdays in the regular season, dropping Thursdays. While both potential changes have some momentum, I feel more definitive about ESPN Wednesdays leaving the equation. Thus, these companies will pay a lot, but their totals may not be nuts in comparison to what they currently are doling out.
The NBA is going to add a streamer, but there is no evidence yet that one of the digital companies will do what Amazon did with the NFL. Amazon Prime Video is spending a billion dollars a year for Thursday Night Football, which is way more than any of the networks were willing to pay. But for the NBA to get huge money from Amazon, it likely will need to offer a Thursday Night exclusive starting the week after the NFL ends and then, as Amazon Prime Video head Jay Marinesaid on the podcast, the company would want the rights to playoffs or something akin to them. Amazon’s proven success on the NFL and its relationship with the NBA make it a perceived favorite for the first digital package.
Apple is the wild card in almost everything. They have endless money, love secrecy (we did break their MLB and MLS deals in this space — thanks for subscribing) and there definitely are relationships between top Apple and NBA executives. The NBA is a forward-thinking league, but the Apple-MLS model of having everything in one spot is impossible at the moment and probably too risky for such an esteemed league as the NBA. The NBA has choices. That said, the NBA likes to emphasize that reach has changed and Apple is definitely thinking about worldwide distribution. A great selling point for the NBA is how international its game is. Is there a deal for Apple and the NBA? It is definitely plausible, but it is unclear what that would entail, at least right now.
Netflix has been put out there as a possibility. There is no evidence that Netflix is going to get heavy into big-time live sports. They have added an ad-supported tier, which does open up the possibility. However, you usually build it up from smaller deals to a big splash. Could they do a small NBA deal? Maybe, but I don’t see much evidence yet. Google-YouTube added NFL Sunday Ticket, which may make them players for the NBA. Apple, Google and Netflix are all wild cards, but are they going to seriously overpay for major rights? Even if they did, would the NBA want to risk too much of their future on uncertainty?
Part 2:
The deal to look at is the latest major sports rights agreement: NASCAR just received a 40 percent increase on its last contract. Though it picked up more money, it took five partners to do it. NASCAR renewed with NBC and Fox, while adding The CW, WBD Sports and Amazon.
Here’s your half-full/half-empty way to look at having all these partners. Half-full? All these big platforms are promoting your product. Half-empty? Your fans have difficulty finding your product. It also could make it difficult for new viewers to make it a habit.
So Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery want the NBA, but don’t want as much of it. They will pay more, but how much more? You add in a streamer, which will pay top dollar, but will want some showcase events. The NBA would like to add distribution, andAdam Silver is said to have a soft spot for NBC. He and NBC Universal chairman Mark Lazarus go way back to the Turner Sports deal days. NBC, though, is not going to go crazy in terms of spending for the NBA. It is more of a nice-to-have than a must-have.
This is why taking the over on three partners is the best as we soon turn the calendar to 2024. RSN wild card: With Diamond Sports — which currently leases the rights to 15 teams — in trouble, how the NBA navigates the local market is worth monitoring. Most of the streaming players have some level of interest in these daily local-market games, so that very well could add to the overall amount on the NBA’s deal. As mentioned in a previous newsletter, the NBA may be able to offer more games of its marquee teams to digital players, as some of the limits to satisfy current RSN deals could be lessened if Diamond’s deal unwinds. This could create the possibilities for domestic and international deals rolled into one. Bottom line, there may be room for creativity.
SportsClicker Projection 2.0:
I don’t like the tournament on a streamer that much, because it very well could get lost and lose growth. I also haven’t divvied up the RSN games, but that could be part of the package. There could be more global rights, as well. I am not ruling out Apple, Google or Netflix, but in our 2.0 version, they are not in.
It is four entities, which is probably as far as the NBA should go.
So Marchand predicts that:
ESPN/ABC - Games on Friday/Saturdays on ABC with playoffs and Finals every other year
TNT- Games on Tuesdays, All-Star Game and less playoffs
NBC - Games on Sunday after SNF and Finaks every other year and conference final
Amazon - Games on Thursday after TNF and playoffs.
Sounds after right, but I would add that I expect some exclusive games on ESPN+, Peacock and possibly Max.
ESPN/ABC - Games on Friday/Saturdays on ABC with playoffs and Finals every other year
TNT- Games on Tuesdays, All-Star Game and less playoffs
NBC - Games on Sunday after SNF and Finaks every other year and conference final
Amazon - Games on Thursday after TNF and playoffs.
Sounds after right, but I would add that I expect some exclusive games on ESPN+, Peacock and possibly Max.
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So no more ESPN Wednesday?
Typo in the bold for NBC? You mean games on Sundays after Sunday Night Football?
And no Amazon getting the In-Season Tournament games? I’m guessing Amazon would get those NBA TV playoff games too (hopefully)?
Yea, he said that in the article he believes that ESPN Wednesday games will be gone in new TV deal.
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tremonthustler1
aka bx_representer
NBATV will probably get Monday/Wednesday
ABlackMan
Superstar
Bullshyt cause TNT crew too important
In The Zone '98
Superstar
They not paying Barkely $20m to work one day a week...
They will still have games, just not as much. WBD has been cutting costs ever since the merger so them wanting less games for a more reasonable increase in rights fee makes sense.
ABlackMan
Superstar
The new show is on CNN? Ain’t that Turner too?
