New NBA Media Deal: 11 years, $77B with Disney (ABC/ESPN), Comcast (NBC/Peacock), and Amazon. ESPN to license Inside the NBA

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Another indication that NBA won’t triple TV rights revenue

The NBA is seeking to triple its current TV revenue in its next round of media rights negotiations, but the league’s desired price tag is meeting pushback, per The Information. Amazon is said to be taking a wait and see approach as it evaluates the performance of its long-term NFL deal and has been characterized as hesitant to enter another long term rights agreement with a sports entity in the near future. Other streamers are in similar positions, as Google paid $2 billion a year to secure NFL Sunday Ticket and Apple in its first year of its deal with a ten-year deal with Major League Soccer worth $2.5 million over the life of the deal. (The Information 3.15)
 

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I doubt the NBA gets 75b, one big problem for the NBA is viewership. NBA viewership is down as a whole and its only going to get tougher with cable companies losing market share to streamers. I think that is why we keep hearing about NBA tournaments during the season.
 

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Andrew Marchand makes his 1st prediction on NBA TV rights. He thinks it will be ESPN/ABC, Amazon, NBC/Peacock, and TNT/Max. He’s not sure TNT will be able to keep the rights:

The current NBA rights deals with ESPN and TNT don’t expire until after the 2024-25 season, but we have been talking with sources throughout the industry to get their sense of how things might play out.

Like a mock draft, this is the SportsClicker NBA Media Deal Projection 1.0. This stuff is fluid and subject to change, but this is what I think will happen if I were betting today.

Current deal: ESPN currently pays around $1.4 billion per year. TNT’s number is $1.2 billion. ESPN, with ABC, is the home of the NBA Finals, while TNT has the All-Star Game. Both have the regular season and the playoffs.

The players: Negotiations can’t open to everyone officially until we begin to toward the end of this year and into 2024, but here are the likely candidates to get in: ESPN, TNT, Amazon, NBC, Apple and Fox.

CBS also will probably kick the tires — and could be a wild card if Turner or another entity tries to link a bid with a broadcast network — but, like Fox, we would put them in the longshot category. Not impossible, but not probable.



SportsClicker NBA Media Deal Projection 1.0: Starting with the 2025-26 season, I think the NBA will go with four partners patterned after what we have seen from the latest NFL and MLB deals.

The winners: The SportsClicker Projection 1.0 envelope, please. And the winners are … ESPN, Warner Brothers Discovery Sports, Amazon and NBC.

What will the package look like: Let’s go one by one.

1. ESPN: It keeps The Finals. For now, I’ll predict that will be every year, but I do think there will be competition.

ESPN, mirroring its latest MLB deal, will have a nice regular season schedule, but fewer games. It currently broadcasts around 100 games per season. The new deal might include just a Wednesday doubleheader on ESPN and a standalone ABC marquee game on Saturdays. ESPN will keep its playoff package.



It will be in on the potential in-season tournament, but may not get it.

2. Amazon Prime Video: Amazon takes over the Thursday night package from TNT with an exclusive doubleheader. It will start the week after Thursday Night Football. Amazon can tag it, “We own Thursdays!” (You’re welcome, Amazonians).

Amazon also receives the playoff games that currently are on NBA TV and adds a little more playoff inventory, but no conference finals or Finals.
 

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Part 2:

3. NBC: NBC is back in. It’s about money and relationships. NBA commissioner Adam Silver and NBC Chairman of Television and Streaming, Mark Lazarus, go way back to Lazarus’ Turner days. This is important.



Again, the NBA will use the NFL playbook. After “Sunday Night Football” ends, Sunday Night Basketball begins. It would be a seamless transition. NBC gets an annual conference final and maybe — we aren’t there yet — The Finals every other year.

4. TNT: It gets a full season package split between TNT and HBO Max (which will be called just Max by then), but limited to just Tuesday doubleheaders. I’m not positive TNT keeps the NBA, but TNT will give it a strong effort. The NBA, however, could decide that three partners, not four, is the right call for the league.

At this point, I will keep TNT in, but it will be at a reduced package. If they were to lose the NBA, it would likely create a bidding war for Charles Barkley and the “Inside The NBA” crew akin to the NFL TV broadcasting mayhem from last year.



The wild card: We don’t have Apple in there. It seems a little ambivalent about sports and its plan is to try to get the whole shebang with packages, which is what it did with MLS. This means owning all the games.

The are smart, innovative and arrogant. If the score was at zero, their plan could work, but I don’t see the NBA blowing everything else up.

They could just get a regular package, like they did with MLB and Friday Night Baseball. Though Apple and MLB don’t reveal numbers, we have heard some things (not well enough to fully report), and I don’t think they did very well in Year 1. (More below on the latest).

How about the money: We are not going to make a prediction, except that the NBA is going to receive a very nice increase on the $2.6 billion per year it receives in its current deal. Probably not as ridiculous as what has been floated out there, but salaries will go up for the players because the TV and streaming numbers will.
 

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Andrew Marchand makes his 1st prediction on NBA TV rights. He thinks it will be ESPN/ABC, Amazon, NBC/Peacock, and TNT/Max. He’s not sure TNT will be able to keep the rights:

He seems convinced by Amazon. I'm not sure with all their layoffs.
 

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He seems convinced by Amazon. I'm not sure with all their layoffs.

All media is laying off folks, I think that’s the reality of the situation with streaming and high costs it’s having on companies. What he laid out makes sense to me. The fact he’s not bullish on WBD keeping the NBA is just wow to me, sounds like Zaslav was serious. But definitely think Amazon or Apple gets a package. NBC basically sounds like a near slam dunk
 
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Now this has been thrown out there in some reports/rumors since last year. A WBD/Comcast would very interesting in a lot of way especially for the NBA and all the other sports leagues. Would mean NBC and Turner are basically a packaged deal and that Peacock and HBO Max would be a merged streaming entity. Obviously, it might not happen but man that would be a big deal.
 

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Now this has been thrown out there in some reports/rumors since last year. A WBD/Comcast would very interesting in a lot of way especially for the NBA and all the other sports leagues. Would mean NBC and Turner are basically a packaged deal and that Peacock and HBO Max would be a merged streaming entity. Obviously, it might not happen but man that would be a big deal.



Let's say WBD extends and Comcast also gets a deal with NBC/Peacock... and then they merge. How does that work?
 
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