010101
C L O N E*0690//////
Best thing to happen to baseball, the people want action
word let it fly*
MLB juicing again? Verlander thinks there's a conspiracy
- Thread starter PortCityProphet
- Start date
word let it fly*
PortCityProphet
Follow me to the truth
people also want shorter games.Best thing to happen to baseball, the people want action
you cant have both a lot of HRs and shorter faster games
Amare's Right Hook
Southeast World Champion
Eh, he's having a s-hit year and wants to blame something
Paul O'Neil had a homerun like that in the 90s, he even talked about it on yes. And the balls weren't juiced then. I think some of this is confirmation bias.
Will be the next handful of posts:
Stark: Home Run Madness — it can’t just be the baseballs… or can it?
By Jayson Stark Jun 20, 2019
227
All rise in the courtroom of Judge Phineas T. Long Ball, for the trial of one of the world’s most beloved spheres — the major-league baseball.
Today, the baseball stands accused of:
· Flying farther than it has ever flown.
· Soaring repeatedly over every wall ever erected by mankind, with the possible exception of the Great Wall of China.
· Fueling an explosion in home runs that is obliterating the greatest records in this or any sport — and has caused no less a distinguished author than Ken Rosenthal to compare this surge to the PED Era, in terms of its potential damage to the integrity of more than a century’s worth of hallowed statistics.
All right, now a couple of opening arguments. First, let’s quote the words of a current major-league coach, who can’t believe what he’s seeing.
“It’s like watching Home Run Derby,” he said. “We’ve always felt like the balls in the Derby were juiced up. Now it’s like we’re using the Home Run Derby balls in the games.”
Next, let’s hear from a current general manager who recently watched his Triple-A team in the Pacific Coast League, which began using the major-league baseball for the first time this year, and has seen its home-run rate spike by (ready?) 50 percent over last season.
“It’s Arena Baseball,” that GM said, with the bemusement of someone who still isn’t sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing.
Well, whatever it is, it’s definitely a thing. If it feels like some sort of home-run record either gets broken or threatened every 15 minutes these days, you’re not dreaming. Here’s just a partial rundown of the history that has been unfolding before our eyes in 2019:
THE TROT OF THE MONTH CLUB – Let’s see now. There were more home runs hit in April (1,010) than in any April in history. There were more home runs hit in May (1,135) than in any calendar month in history. And now the home-run rate in June (1.42 per game) has blown past even the historic rate in May (1.37) — because of course it has.
THE THOUSAND HOME RUN PYRAMID – So if you made it through the previous paragraph, you won’t be surprised to learn that at this clip, we’d see 6,591 home runs hit this year, which would be … the most in history! And about 1,000 more than last year (5,585)! And nearly 2,400 more than were hit a mere five years ago (4.186)! Even at the height of the PED era, the most bombs launched in any season was “only” 5,695 (in 2000). We could see that total eclipsed by 900 homers this year.
GOPHERVILLE’S TEAM – The Orioles are on pace to do some crazy stuff: A) become the first team ever to allow an average of two homers per game (current rate: 2.0/game) and B) not just serve up the most gopherballs in history (current pace: 324!) but (at this pace) break the previous record (258) by nearly 70 homers.
THE BASH BROTHERS – Meanwhile, three teams — the Twins, Mariners and Brewers — are all on pace to blow away the all-time record for most home runs hit in a season, with the Yankees, Astros and Cubs lagging not far off that pace. No team has ever hit more than 267 homers in a season. The Twins would mash 311 at this rate.
JOIN THE CLUB – Would you believe that 13 different teams are on pace to break their all-time franchise record for homers in a season? Plus four others (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Pirates) are so close that it wouldn’t be shocking if more than half the teams in baseball hit more home runs this season than they’ve ever hit. Ever.
WAIT TILL THIS YEAR – Finally, here’s a sampling of players who rank among this year’s leaders — and already have hit more home runs than they hit all last season: Josh Bell, Jay Bruce, Tommy La Stella, Ketel Marte, Franmil Reyes, Jorge Soler, Derek Dietrich and Daniel Vogelbach — with the likes of Cody Bellinger, Freddie Freeman and Hunter Renfroe about to join this club any minute now.
So ladies and gentlemen of the jury, those are the facts. Now what’s the defense? It can’t just be the baseball, can it? Oh, yes, it can. But let’s examine the alternatives anyway. Here are the most likely other causes. See what you think.
WHAT ABOUT THE BATS?
We hear this question all the time. So we posed it to people across the sport. It’s true, after all, that the average exit velocity off the bat has never been higher, and that the percentage of hard-hit baseballs is at an all-time high, at least for the era in which those metrics have been measured.
It’s also true that the quality of bats in the big leagues has never been better. That at least feels like a factor.
“When I played,” said Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, “you had to get heavier (bats) to get harder (bats). Now the bat companies are all making bats that are harder and lighter … Ronald Acuña swings a 30-ounce bat. In my day, if you used a 30-ounce bat, it would probably have lasted one at-bat, because (the wood) was so weak.”
So there you go. It must be the bats, right? Uh, wrong. A 2018 scientific study commissioned by Major League Baseball cast great doubt on that. Plus let’s remember one thing: The quality of bats may have improved dramatically over the last 10, 20 or even 30 years. But we’re talking about 1,000 more homers than last year.
Anyone out there think the quality of bats has undergone a massive alteration since last fall? Right. Didn’t think so. Next witness.
IT’S THE LAUNCH ANGLE
Is launch angle now, officially, a major point of emphasis for hitters everywhere? Of course it is. And thanks to the miracle of Statcast, it’s possible to measure that like never before.
HITTERS WITH 20.0+-DEGREE AVG. LAUNCH ANGLE
2015 2
2016 9
2017 12
2018 11
2019 19
(Min. 100 batted balls for 2015-18, 50 for 2019)
Source – baseballsavant.com
That’s a real trend, and it isn’t happening by accident. It’s happening because teams — and players — have never put more emphasis on getting the ball in the air. Kids are knocking on the door at places like Driveline Baseball to learn how to accomplish that. Clubs are teaching it as early as the lower minor leagues. And there’s belief across the game that it’s possible that this widespread, science-based, adaptation in hitters’ swing paths is having an impact.
“Hitting approach and strategy are completely different than they were five years ago,” said one executive. “Is it possible that the change in hitters’ swings is causing them to hit balls harder? It makes total sense.”
Sure. Makes sense on every level — except for one thing. If hitters are now employing that swing path across the minor leagues, why are we only seeing this massive surge in homers in Triple A and the big leagues, which use a different baseball than the lower levels?
“We’re not seeing the same spike in Double A or Single A,” said Twins GM Thad Levine. “Only in Triple A. And the only thing that’s changed there is the baseball.”
Oh, yeah. There’s that. Plus there’s one other problem with that launch-angle theory. Despite the fixation with hitting the ball in the air, the rate of fly balls has barely changed.
FLY BALL PERCENTAGE
2017 35.5%
2018 35.4%
2019 35.8%
Source: FanGraphs
So the increase in the number of fly balls since last year is up 1 percent. The percentage of fly balls that land in somebody’s bleacher seat is up 17 percent. You do the math. Next witness.
IT’S THE PITCHERS’ VELOCITY
Here’s another trend in the game that would seem, on the surface, to be a clearly related development. Pitchers throw harder now than they’ve ever thrown. Baseballs are hit harder now than they’ve ever been hit. Discuss.
“It’s the ball, and it’s velocity,” said the GM of one team that’s among the home run leaders. “And when you combine a ball that goes farther than ever with harder velocity coming in — which means harder velocity going out — you’re going to get balls that fly farther.”
Voila. You don’t need to read the works of Stephen Hawking to accept this theory. It’s packed with logic. It’s packed with physics. It’s packed with intuitive baseball IQ. But once again, it doesn’t explain a 1,000-homer spike since last year.
AVG. FASTBALL VELOCITY
2014 93.2 mph
2015 93.4 mph
2016 93.5 mph
2017 93.5 mph
2018 93.6 mph
2019 93.7 mph
Source: FanGraphs
So let’s think this through again. Do pitchers throw really hard nowadays? Check. Is that having a significant impact on everything in the game? Check. But has any of that welled up just since last October? Negative! Next witness.
IT’S THE WAY TEAMS ARE BUILT
“Do you ever open up the box scores and look at the lineups?” asked one AL exec. “Especially in the American League, one through nine, every guy can hit a mistake 400 feet. Four years ago, that number was six or seven guys. Now it’s eight or nine. That’s not launch angle. That’s a change in the type of player we’re putting on the field. If you can’t hit 20 bombs now, you can’t play regularly in the big leagues anymore.”
That sounds like an exaggeration. Guess again. Every defensive position on the field — except pitchers, obviously — is on pace to average 20 home runs per team this year. Every single position. (*ASTERISK ALERT – It’s actually 19.9 at second base. But are we permitted by the proper authorities to round off those numbers? We are. That is all.)
Once again, you can’t find anyone in the sport who will dispute this major philosophical shift in roster construction. At a time when everyone comprehends that the odds are ugly of hitting three singles in an inning off Max Scherzer, GMs have a bigger crush than ever on dudes who can smoke a hanging cutter off the scoreboard. And why wouldn’t they?
“The fastest way to score runs in the big leagues is with the home run,” Levine said. “So we’re starting to develop talent with an eye toward (honing those long-ball skills) … We’re definitely strategizing for it in the draft. We’re looking for swing paths. And we’re developing that skill.”
Yet once again, does that fully explain what we’re seeing? Did that just start last offseason or something?
“I think the industry has a greater understanding now of the value of a home run compared with where we were 10 to 15 years ago,” said an NL GM. “But I don’t think it’s changed overnight. It’s been a gradual evolution, probably over the last decade or decade and a half.”
So does a decade-long trend connect the dots to a 1,000-homer uptick since last year? You know the answer. Next witness.
COULD THERE BE ANOTHER PED CRISIS?
Let’s get this one out of the way fast, because we know there are people whose automatic explanation for every home run increase is: They’re all cheating.
But we posed this question to people in every corner of the industry. They would never pretend that their sport — or any sport — is 100 percent substance-free. But at a time when testing is more extensive and more frequent than it has ever been, there is no belief anywhere that this is Balco-ball 2.0.
“Zero chance that’s the reason,” said one baseball man who asked not to be identified. “Unless there’s a conspiracy that no one knows about, in the commissioner’s office or the union or anywhere else, I honestly think it’s zero.”
By Jayson Stark Jun 20, 2019
All rise in the courtroom of Judge Phineas T. Long Ball, for the trial of one of the world’s most beloved spheres — the major-league baseball.
Today, the baseball stands accused of:
· Flying farther than it has ever flown.
· Soaring repeatedly over every wall ever erected by mankind, with the possible exception of the Great Wall of China.
· Fueling an explosion in home runs that is obliterating the greatest records in this or any sport — and has caused no less a distinguished author than Ken Rosenthal to compare this surge to the PED Era, in terms of its potential damage to the integrity of more than a century’s worth of hallowed statistics.
All right, now a couple of opening arguments. First, let’s quote the words of a current major-league coach, who can’t believe what he’s seeing.
“It’s like watching Home Run Derby,” he said. “We’ve always felt like the balls in the Derby were juiced up. Now it’s like we’re using the Home Run Derby balls in the games.”
Next, let’s hear from a current general manager who recently watched his Triple-A team in the Pacific Coast League, which began using the major-league baseball for the first time this year, and has seen its home-run rate spike by (ready?) 50 percent over last season.
“It’s Arena Baseball,” that GM said, with the bemusement of someone who still isn’t sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing.
Well, whatever it is, it’s definitely a thing. If it feels like some sort of home-run record either gets broken or threatened every 15 minutes these days, you’re not dreaming. Here’s just a partial rundown of the history that has been unfolding before our eyes in 2019:
THE TROT OF THE MONTH CLUB – Let’s see now. There were more home runs hit in April (1,010) than in any April in history. There were more home runs hit in May (1,135) than in any calendar month in history. And now the home-run rate in June (1.42 per game) has blown past even the historic rate in May (1.37) — because of course it has.
THE THOUSAND HOME RUN PYRAMID – So if you made it through the previous paragraph, you won’t be surprised to learn that at this clip, we’d see 6,591 home runs hit this year, which would be … the most in history! And about 1,000 more than last year (5,585)! And nearly 2,400 more than were hit a mere five years ago (4.186)! Even at the height of the PED era, the most bombs launched in any season was “only” 5,695 (in 2000). We could see that total eclipsed by 900 homers this year.
GOPHERVILLE’S TEAM – The Orioles are on pace to do some crazy stuff: A) become the first team ever to allow an average of two homers per game (current rate: 2.0/game) and B) not just serve up the most gopherballs in history (current pace: 324!) but (at this pace) break the previous record (258) by nearly 70 homers.
THE BASH BROTHERS – Meanwhile, three teams — the Twins, Mariners and Brewers — are all on pace to blow away the all-time record for most home runs hit in a season, with the Yankees, Astros and Cubs lagging not far off that pace. No team has ever hit more than 267 homers in a season. The Twins would mash 311 at this rate.
JOIN THE CLUB – Would you believe that 13 different teams are on pace to break their all-time franchise record for homers in a season? Plus four others (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Pirates) are so close that it wouldn’t be shocking if more than half the teams in baseball hit more home runs this season than they’ve ever hit. Ever.
WAIT TILL THIS YEAR – Finally, here’s a sampling of players who rank among this year’s leaders — and already have hit more home runs than they hit all last season: Josh Bell, Jay Bruce, Tommy La Stella, Ketel Marte, Franmil Reyes, Jorge Soler, Derek Dietrich and Daniel Vogelbach — with the likes of Cody Bellinger, Freddie Freeman and Hunter Renfroe about to join this club any minute now.
So ladies and gentlemen of the jury, those are the facts. Now what’s the defense? It can’t just be the baseball, can it? Oh, yes, it can. But let’s examine the alternatives anyway. Here are the most likely other causes. See what you think.
WHAT ABOUT THE BATS?
We hear this question all the time. So we posed it to people across the sport. It’s true, after all, that the average exit velocity off the bat has never been higher, and that the percentage of hard-hit baseballs is at an all-time high, at least for the era in which those metrics have been measured.
It’s also true that the quality of bats in the big leagues has never been better. That at least feels like a factor.
“When I played,” said Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, “you had to get heavier (bats) to get harder (bats). Now the bat companies are all making bats that are harder and lighter … Ronald Acuña swings a 30-ounce bat. In my day, if you used a 30-ounce bat, it would probably have lasted one at-bat, because (the wood) was so weak.”
So there you go. It must be the bats, right? Uh, wrong. A 2018 scientific study commissioned by Major League Baseball cast great doubt on that. Plus let’s remember one thing: The quality of bats may have improved dramatically over the last 10, 20 or even 30 years. But we’re talking about 1,000 more homers than last year.
Anyone out there think the quality of bats has undergone a massive alteration since last fall? Right. Didn’t think so. Next witness.
IT’S THE LAUNCH ANGLE
Is launch angle now, officially, a major point of emphasis for hitters everywhere? Of course it is. And thanks to the miracle of Statcast, it’s possible to measure that like never before.
HITTERS WITH 20.0+-DEGREE AVG. LAUNCH ANGLE
2015 2
2016 9
2017 12
2018 11
2019 19
(Min. 100 batted balls for 2015-18, 50 for 2019)
Source – baseballsavant.com
That’s a real trend, and it isn’t happening by accident. It’s happening because teams — and players — have never put more emphasis on getting the ball in the air. Kids are knocking on the door at places like Driveline Baseball to learn how to accomplish that. Clubs are teaching it as early as the lower minor leagues. And there’s belief across the game that it’s possible that this widespread, science-based, adaptation in hitters’ swing paths is having an impact.
“Hitting approach and strategy are completely different than they were five years ago,” said one executive. “Is it possible that the change in hitters’ swings is causing them to hit balls harder? It makes total sense.”
Sure. Makes sense on every level — except for one thing. If hitters are now employing that swing path across the minor leagues, why are we only seeing this massive surge in homers in Triple A and the big leagues, which use a different baseball than the lower levels?
“We’re not seeing the same spike in Double A or Single A,” said Twins GM Thad Levine. “Only in Triple A. And the only thing that’s changed there is the baseball.”
Oh, yeah. There’s that. Plus there’s one other problem with that launch-angle theory. Despite the fixation with hitting the ball in the air, the rate of fly balls has barely changed.
FLY BALL PERCENTAGE
2017 35.5%
2018 35.4%
2019 35.8%
Source: FanGraphs
So the increase in the number of fly balls since last year is up 1 percent. The percentage of fly balls that land in somebody’s bleacher seat is up 17 percent. You do the math. Next witness.
IT’S THE PITCHERS’ VELOCITY
Here’s another trend in the game that would seem, on the surface, to be a clearly related development. Pitchers throw harder now than they’ve ever thrown. Baseballs are hit harder now than they’ve ever been hit. Discuss.
“It’s the ball, and it’s velocity,” said the GM of one team that’s among the home run leaders. “And when you combine a ball that goes farther than ever with harder velocity coming in — which means harder velocity going out — you’re going to get balls that fly farther.”
Voila. You don’t need to read the works of Stephen Hawking to accept this theory. It’s packed with logic. It’s packed with physics. It’s packed with intuitive baseball IQ. But once again, it doesn’t explain a 1,000-homer spike since last year.
AVG. FASTBALL VELOCITY
2014 93.2 mph
2015 93.4 mph
2016 93.5 mph
2017 93.5 mph
2018 93.6 mph
2019 93.7 mph
Source: FanGraphs
So let’s think this through again. Do pitchers throw really hard nowadays? Check. Is that having a significant impact on everything in the game? Check. But has any of that welled up just since last October? Negative! Next witness.
IT’S THE WAY TEAMS ARE BUILT
“Do you ever open up the box scores and look at the lineups?” asked one AL exec. “Especially in the American League, one through nine, every guy can hit a mistake 400 feet. Four years ago, that number was six or seven guys. Now it’s eight or nine. That’s not launch angle. That’s a change in the type of player we’re putting on the field. If you can’t hit 20 bombs now, you can’t play regularly in the big leagues anymore.”
That sounds like an exaggeration. Guess again. Every defensive position on the field — except pitchers, obviously — is on pace to average 20 home runs per team this year. Every single position. (*ASTERISK ALERT – It’s actually 19.9 at second base. But are we permitted by the proper authorities to round off those numbers? We are. That is all.)
Once again, you can’t find anyone in the sport who will dispute this major philosophical shift in roster construction. At a time when everyone comprehends that the odds are ugly of hitting three singles in an inning off Max Scherzer, GMs have a bigger crush than ever on dudes who can smoke a hanging cutter off the scoreboard. And why wouldn’t they?
“The fastest way to score runs in the big leagues is with the home run,” Levine said. “So we’re starting to develop talent with an eye toward (honing those long-ball skills) … We’re definitely strategizing for it in the draft. We’re looking for swing paths. And we’re developing that skill.”
Yet once again, does that fully explain what we’re seeing? Did that just start last offseason or something?
“I think the industry has a greater understanding now of the value of a home run compared with where we were 10 to 15 years ago,” said an NL GM. “But I don’t think it’s changed overnight. It’s been a gradual evolution, probably over the last decade or decade and a half.”
So does a decade-long trend connect the dots to a 1,000-homer uptick since last year? You know the answer. Next witness.
COULD THERE BE ANOTHER PED CRISIS?
Let’s get this one out of the way fast, because we know there are people whose automatic explanation for every home run increase is: They’re all cheating.
But we posed this question to people in every corner of the industry. They would never pretend that their sport — or any sport — is 100 percent substance-free. But at a time when testing is more extensive and more frequent than it has ever been, there is no belief anywhere that this is Balco-ball 2.0.
“Zero chance that’s the reason,” said one baseball man who asked not to be identified. “Unless there’s a conspiracy that no one knows about, in the commissioner’s office or the union or anywhere else, I honestly think it’s zero.”
Stark: Home Run Madness — it can't just be the...
SO IT’S THE BASEBALL, RIGHT?
You’ve now heard all the possible explanations. Does it seem logical that any of them are at work here?
Wait. That’s a trick question. They’re almost all at work in some way, driving the sport toward a very different place, which is leading us toward more home runs than ever before. But…
Does it seem logical that any of them are the answer for those 1,000 extra home runs that weren’t soaring through the ozone last year? That’s where it’s time to start shaking our heads.
So if it’s clearly the baseball, why doesn’t baseball just fix it? There almost seems to be an assumption in many pockets of the game that that’s what’s going to happen.
“I don’t think they should deaden it,” said Seitzer. “Just keep it the way it was when all the records were set. That’s the point of records, right? To have consistency throughout our game? So keep the bases 90 feet apart. Keep the mound at 60 feet, 6 inches. And keep the ball the way it was. It just seems like it should be easy to figure out how to make baseballs (that aren’t this lively). We’ve got machines that do everything else. Why can’t they figure out how to get a machine to make baseballs that are consistent?”
He’s not the only one asking that question: Where’s that state-of-the-art baseball machine anyhow? In a world in which machines and technology seem to control pretty much everything in our lives, you would understand why anybody would ask that. But guess what? It’s not only harder than you’d think, it’s impossible.
We’ve been asking about what turbo-charged the baseball for months. The answers are both puzzling and frustrating.
Baseballs are sewn together by hand. They are made of natural ingredients — cowhide, with cotton stitching. There isn’t a machine on earth that is cranking out baseballs for any professional league. They have to be sewn together by hand, at the factory. Have to.
The only way to change that is to design them completely differently. No cowhide. No stitching. No sewing. And guess what? That’s not happening.
There’s something else. There are strict rules that govern the size of the baseball, the type of surface, the fabric for stitching, the specs of the inner core right down to the color. But you know what people in the game have learned after asking the same questions we’ve asked?
It’s virtually impossible to control the drag coefficient.
The drag coefficient? Yes, it’s actually a shift in that drag coefficient — essentially a major change in wind resistance — that a team of scientists determined last year was causing baseballs to whoosh through the sky differently than in the past. But those scientists couldn’t figure out why.
The funny thing is, The Athletic’s Meredith Wills has done studies that might provide some clues. But within MLB, the search for more answers — by a bunch of really smart people — goes on. And nothing they’ve uncovered so far has convinced them they’ve found a solution.
All those specs in the rule book — none of them have changed. The ball isn’t bigger. It isn’t heavier. It isn’t lighter. It isn’t bouncier. It isn’t made of any different materials. It just flies farther. And if you think you know how to fix it, Rob Manfred would love to hear from you.
“We should be able to figure this out,” said one executive who has posed these questions. “But the people who know the most about it just tell me to stop asking.”
So ladies and gentlemen of the jury, we invite you to come up with the answer — because so far, all the powers that be have come up with are more questions. Judge Phineas T. Longball has spoken. Now it’s your turn.
You’ve now heard all the possible explanations. Does it seem logical that any of them are at work here?
Wait. That’s a trick question. They’re almost all at work in some way, driving the sport toward a very different place, which is leading us toward more home runs than ever before. But…
Does it seem logical that any of them are the answer for those 1,000 extra home runs that weren’t soaring through the ozone last year? That’s where it’s time to start shaking our heads.
So if it’s clearly the baseball, why doesn’t baseball just fix it? There almost seems to be an assumption in many pockets of the game that that’s what’s going to happen.
“I don’t think they should deaden it,” said Seitzer. “Just keep it the way it was when all the records were set. That’s the point of records, right? To have consistency throughout our game? So keep the bases 90 feet apart. Keep the mound at 60 feet, 6 inches. And keep the ball the way it was. It just seems like it should be easy to figure out how to make baseballs (that aren’t this lively). We’ve got machines that do everything else. Why can’t they figure out how to get a machine to make baseballs that are consistent?”
He’s not the only one asking that question: Where’s that state-of-the-art baseball machine anyhow? In a world in which machines and technology seem to control pretty much everything in our lives, you would understand why anybody would ask that. But guess what? It’s not only harder than you’d think, it’s impossible.
We’ve been asking about what turbo-charged the baseball for months. The answers are both puzzling and frustrating.
Baseballs are sewn together by hand. They are made of natural ingredients — cowhide, with cotton stitching. There isn’t a machine on earth that is cranking out baseballs for any professional league. They have to be sewn together by hand, at the factory. Have to.
The only way to change that is to design them completely differently. No cowhide. No stitching. No sewing. And guess what? That’s not happening.
There’s something else. There are strict rules that govern the size of the baseball, the type of surface, the fabric for stitching, the specs of the inner core right down to the color. But you know what people in the game have learned after asking the same questions we’ve asked?
It’s virtually impossible to control the drag coefficient.
The drag coefficient? Yes, it’s actually a shift in that drag coefficient — essentially a major change in wind resistance — that a team of scientists determined last year was causing baseballs to whoosh through the sky differently than in the past. But those scientists couldn’t figure out why.
The funny thing is, The Athletic’s Meredith Wills has done studies that might provide some clues. But within MLB, the search for more answers — by a bunch of really smart people — goes on. And nothing they’ve uncovered so far has convinced them they’ve found a solution.
All those specs in the rule book — none of them have changed. The ball isn’t bigger. It isn’t heavier. It isn’t lighter. It isn’t bouncier. It isn’t made of any different materials. It just flies farther. And if you think you know how to fix it, Rob Manfred would love to hear from you.
“We should be able to figure this out,” said one executive who has posed these questions. “But the people who know the most about it just tell me to stop asking.”
So ladies and gentlemen of the jury, we invite you to come up with the answer — because so far, all the powers that be have come up with are more questions. Judge Phineas T. Longball has spoken. Now it’s your turn.
Rosenthal: It’s not baseball, it’s Bludgeon Ball. And...
Quickest, easiest read:
Rosenthal: It’s not baseball, it’s Bludgeon Ball. And the frequency of home runs is nothing short of numbing
By Ken Rosenthal Jun 13, 2019
396
Major League Baseball needs to face reality. It’s time to deaden the baseball. Not to create a second Dead Ball Era. Just to get back to normal.
The way home runs are flying, they’re losing their meaning, their relevance, their ability to connect the game of today with the game of yesterday. And if you ruin the home-run records, you’re risking major damage to the sport. We know this because it happened, not so long ago.
Know why I hated the Steroid Era? It wasn’t just the cheating, the creation of uneven playing fields between those who used and those who did not. It also was the warping of statistics, the distortion of generational comparisons fans and reporters cherish, even though they rarely were apples-to-apples to begin with.
Well, here we are again.
Not with a fresh influx of performance-enhancing drugs, though some players almost certainly are using them, even with stricter testing. No, the sport’s continuing home-run eruption is mostly due to a more aerodynamic composition of the baseball, a development acknowledged by a committee of 10 scientists and data specialists appointed by MLB last season. The rising home-run numbers are not necessarily inauthentic, the way they were during the Steroid Era. But the frequency of homers is nothing short of numbing.
It’s not baseball, it’s Bludgeon Ball. And it’s producing sensory overload.
In the past four days, we’ve seen a season-high 486-foot home-run by Ian Desmond, four straight homers by the Nationals, four in an inning by the Braves, 13 combined by the Phillies and Diamondbacks, a major-league record for a single game. The sport was averaging 2.70 homers for both teams per game, a pace that would shatter the all-time mark of 2.51, set in 2017.
The solution is obvious, and one that baseball possibly could accomplish without approval from the players’ union – the composition of the ball has not previously been raised in bargaining.
The MLB committee determined the ball was traveling with decreased air resistance, or drag. It could not explain how or why the changes in the ball took place, though there is nothing to suggest baseball did anything sinister; commissioner Rob Manfred, too, wanted answers, and released them publicly. Still, this is the third straight season in which the ball has been a major topic of conversation. By next season, baseball needs to act upon its findings, and introduce a different ball.
The sport previously has reacted to extreme swings in on-field performance, lowering the mound from 15 inches to 10 after the Year of the Pitcher in 1968, then taking the air out of the Rabbit Ball when home runs spiked in 1987. While no one in authority explicitly condemned the Rabbit Ball, baseball’s actions spoke louder than words. From 1985 to ‘87, home runs for both teams per game increased from 1.71 to 1.81 to 2.12. They then returned to even lower levels – 1.51 and 1.46 – the following two seasons, and surely not by accident.
The same kind of adjustment is now necessary. Fans love homers. Children, and many adults, love sugar. But at some point, enough is enough. How can teams accurately evaluate hitters in the current environment? How can they accurately evaluate pitchers? Statistics determine how players are paid. And every night, often several times a night, something happens that is just . . . not . . . normal.
The Mets’ Mickey Callaway and Pirates’ Clint Hurdle are among the managers who cite poor pitching for the record home-run pace, with Callaway saying recently, “Any time you’re giving up more home runs, it’s just execution.” To be sure, the trend of pitchers relying on power over precision is a problem. Hitters also are changing their approaches in this age of defensive shifts, with more trying to increase their launch angles to get balls into the air. But anyone watching the games can see, without confirmation from Statcast, that the ball is flying like never before.
Other professional sports also are gravitating toward extremes – the NFL is more of a passing game now, the NBA a three-point shooting extravaganza. Baseball’s home-run craze, though, is not the product of a natural evolution, a confluence of factors leading to a gradual annual increase. No, the trend is explained far more easily. Triple-A leagues, using the major-league ball for the first time this season, are averaging a home run every 25 at-bats, as opposed to one every 38.2 last season with the old minor-league ball.
This would be known as ringing evidence.
Here’s guessing that, just as after the 1987 season, baseball and Rawlings, its official ball supplier, could figure out the adjustments necessary to return home-run totals to something close to their previous levels. The subsequent increase in balls in play would be a first step toward reducing the three-true outcome rate (home runs, walks, strikeouts), which is at an all-time high for the fourth straight season.
Yes, the issues with the on-field product run far deeper than home runs. A certain percentage of fans are loathe to accept any change to a game steeped in tradition. But within the sport, everyone from club officials to the game’s top decision-makers decry the lack of action, believing it will limit growth in the fan base. One prominent executive this week described major-league games as “painful to watch.” He is hardly alone in that view.
Baseball, in conjunction with the players’ union, already has adopted a series of rules changes designed to increase the pace of play and reduce the reliance on relief pitching in 2019 and ‘20. It is experimenting with additional, more radical changes in partnership with the independent Atlantic League. The ideas need to keep flowing, the two sides need to keep talking. Change is difficult. But remaining stagnant cannot be an option.
Perhaps more fans would be alarmed over the current state of affairs if, say, Christian Yelich was on pace for 80 homers. No such individual outliers exist; Yelich, the major-league leader in homers, is on pace for a mere 60. He is one of 25, however, who are on pace to hit at least 40, which would far exceed the record of 17 in 1996. Twenty teams, meanwhile, are on pace to hit 200 homers. As noted by ESPN’s Buster Olney, only one reached that total in 2013.
It’s Bludgeon Ball, all right, and even though the circumstances are different, I’ve got the same uneasy feeling I did in the Steroid Era. I’m not sure what to believe anymore.
By Ken Rosenthal Jun 13, 2019
Major League Baseball needs to face reality. It’s time to deaden the baseball. Not to create a second Dead Ball Era. Just to get back to normal.
The way home runs are flying, they’re losing their meaning, their relevance, their ability to connect the game of today with the game of yesterday. And if you ruin the home-run records, you’re risking major damage to the sport. We know this because it happened, not so long ago.
Know why I hated the Steroid Era? It wasn’t just the cheating, the creation of uneven playing fields between those who used and those who did not. It also was the warping of statistics, the distortion of generational comparisons fans and reporters cherish, even though they rarely were apples-to-apples to begin with.
Well, here we are again.
Not with a fresh influx of performance-enhancing drugs, though some players almost certainly are using them, even with stricter testing. No, the sport’s continuing home-run eruption is mostly due to a more aerodynamic composition of the baseball, a development acknowledged by a committee of 10 scientists and data specialists appointed by MLB last season. The rising home-run numbers are not necessarily inauthentic, the way they were during the Steroid Era. But the frequency of homers is nothing short of numbing.
It’s not baseball, it’s Bludgeon Ball. And it’s producing sensory overload.
In the past four days, we’ve seen a season-high 486-foot home-run by Ian Desmond, four straight homers by the Nationals, four in an inning by the Braves, 13 combined by the Phillies and Diamondbacks, a major-league record for a single game. The sport was averaging 2.70 homers for both teams per game, a pace that would shatter the all-time mark of 2.51, set in 2017.
The solution is obvious, and one that baseball possibly could accomplish without approval from the players’ union – the composition of the ball has not previously been raised in bargaining.
The MLB committee determined the ball was traveling with decreased air resistance, or drag. It could not explain how or why the changes in the ball took place, though there is nothing to suggest baseball did anything sinister; commissioner Rob Manfred, too, wanted answers, and released them publicly. Still, this is the third straight season in which the ball has been a major topic of conversation. By next season, baseball needs to act upon its findings, and introduce a different ball.
The sport previously has reacted to extreme swings in on-field performance, lowering the mound from 15 inches to 10 after the Year of the Pitcher in 1968, then taking the air out of the Rabbit Ball when home runs spiked in 1987. While no one in authority explicitly condemned the Rabbit Ball, baseball’s actions spoke louder than words. From 1985 to ‘87, home runs for both teams per game increased from 1.71 to 1.81 to 2.12. They then returned to even lower levels – 1.51 and 1.46 – the following two seasons, and surely not by accident.
The same kind of adjustment is now necessary. Fans love homers. Children, and many adults, love sugar. But at some point, enough is enough. How can teams accurately evaluate hitters in the current environment? How can they accurately evaluate pitchers? Statistics determine how players are paid. And every night, often several times a night, something happens that is just . . . not . . . normal.
The Mets’ Mickey Callaway and Pirates’ Clint Hurdle are among the managers who cite poor pitching for the record home-run pace, with Callaway saying recently, “Any time you’re giving up more home runs, it’s just execution.” To be sure, the trend of pitchers relying on power over precision is a problem. Hitters also are changing their approaches in this age of defensive shifts, with more trying to increase their launch angles to get balls into the air. But anyone watching the games can see, without confirmation from Statcast, that the ball is flying like never before.
Other professional sports also are gravitating toward extremes – the NFL is more of a passing game now, the NBA a three-point shooting extravaganza. Baseball’s home-run craze, though, is not the product of a natural evolution, a confluence of factors leading to a gradual annual increase. No, the trend is explained far more easily. Triple-A leagues, using the major-league ball for the first time this season, are averaging a home run every 25 at-bats, as opposed to one every 38.2 last season with the old minor-league ball.
This would be known as ringing evidence.
Here’s guessing that, just as after the 1987 season, baseball and Rawlings, its official ball supplier, could figure out the adjustments necessary to return home-run totals to something close to their previous levels. The subsequent increase in balls in play would be a first step toward reducing the three-true outcome rate (home runs, walks, strikeouts), which is at an all-time high for the fourth straight season.
Yes, the issues with the on-field product run far deeper than home runs. A certain percentage of fans are loathe to accept any change to a game steeped in tradition. But within the sport, everyone from club officials to the game’s top decision-makers decry the lack of action, believing it will limit growth in the fan base. One prominent executive this week described major-league games as “painful to watch.” He is hardly alone in that view.
Baseball, in conjunction with the players’ union, already has adopted a series of rules changes designed to increase the pace of play and reduce the reliance on relief pitching in 2019 and ‘20. It is experimenting with additional, more radical changes in partnership with the independent Atlantic League. The ideas need to keep flowing, the two sides need to keep talking. Change is difficult. But remaining stagnant cannot be an option.
Perhaps more fans would be alarmed over the current state of affairs if, say, Christian Yelich was on pace for 80 homers. No such individual outliers exist; Yelich, the major-league leader in homers, is on pace for a mere 60. He is one of 25, however, who are on pace to hit at least 40, which would far exceed the record of 17 in 1996. Twenty teams, meanwhile, are on pace to hit 200 homers. As noted by ESPN’s Buster Olney, only one reached that total in 2013.
It’s Bludgeon Ball, all right, and even though the circumstances are different, I’ve got the same uneasy feeling I did in the Steroid Era. I’m not sure what to believe anymore.
Technical stuff:
Yes, the baseball is different — again. An astrophysicist...
Yes, the baseball is different — again. An astrophysicist...
Yes, the baseball is different — again. An astrophysicist examines this year’s baseballs and breaks down the changes
By Dr. Meredith Wills
86
Welcome to baseball, circa 2019. Balls are flying, and records are falling. Players are on pace to hit 6,618 home runs, 1,000 more than last season’s 5,585 and 500 more than 2017’s all-time high of 6,105. At least 13 of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams are in a position to break franchise records. Twenty-one players are expected to hit more than 40 home runs — including Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich, who is projected for 61 — and the number who have already exceeded last season’s home run totals currently stands at 36 (and has probably gone up since this writing).
Balls are also traveling farther, with Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara hitting a 505-foot homer this past Friday and tying the Statcast era record. In 2018, only 82 home runs surpassed 450 feet. This season, that number is already up to 84, with a projected total of 178 — an increase of 117 percent. And it’s not just long distances. Despite the fact that fly ball rates are up less than 0.5 percent from 2017 and 2018, home run rates are up 7.8 percent and 17.8 percent.
So, what’s going on?
Yes, the ball is different
As Jayson Stark recently demonstrated, it’s the ball. On Thursday, commissioner Rob Manfred even issued a statement acknowledging that “we do think it’s a drag issue.” Rob Arthur provided evidence of this as early as the first week in April, showing that this season’s ball had a significantly lower drag coefficient than that of 2018. With such a small sample, he determined the aerodynamics were comparable to those of the 2017 home run surge. By now, it’s clear that Arthur’s findings were an underestimate.
Last year, MLB commissioned a Home Run Committee to figure out the reason behind the 2017 home run surge. The committee found the only possible cause was a decrease in the ball’s drag coefficient; however, the group was unable to identify the specific source of the change. Performing my own independent studies, I determined the decrease in drag could be traced back to an increase in lace thickness, which inadvertently produced a rounder baseball. The introduction of thicker laces also corresponded to a marked increase in pitcher blister injuries, suggesting that as a possible factor.
Home run rate 1990-2019. The dates of each baseball sample are labeled by color.
To be clear though, the 2019 baseball is not the 2017 baseball. Not only is it different from those of late 2015-2018, it’s different from balls going back to at least 2000.
Baseballs from early 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019. Balls up through early 2015 make up one population, balls from late 2015 through 2018 constitute another, and balls from 2019 are a third. (Meredith Wills)
Even hitters and managers aren’t quite sure what’s going on. During an April 27 postgame interview, Astros pinch-hitter Tony Kemp said of his walk-off home run, “I think I surprised myself. … I wasn’t imagining myself hitting a home run in that situation, but I’ll take a home run right there.” When asked about a home run he hit on June 2, Dodgers first baseman David Freese answered, “I don’t know. I don’t really know how that went out, but it did.” Similarly, an “excuse-me” home run hit by Mets third baseman Todd Frazier on June 6 surprised managers on both sides. Mets manager Mickey Callaway commented, “You don’t anticipate (a hit like that) going out. You usually read the swing, and it just kept on going.” Meanwhile, Giants manager Bruce Bochy said, “I thought it was a fly ball. I was surprised by how far it went.”
Pitchers, in particular, are saying the ball has changed. Mets starter Noah Syndergaard described the baseballs as “(feeling) like ice cubes,” referencing a video of a dog trying to pick up an ice cube. Nationals closer Sean Doolittle told USA Today’s Steve Gardner, “(the baseballs) feel really slick. … There’s been several times where I’ve gotten one and I haven’t even thrown a pitch with it. It just really didn’t feel right in my hand, and so I just threw it out.” He also described the seams as feeling “lower but wider, if that makes sense,” and pointed out that, “(for guys) that spin the ball, it seems to be a little bit different.” Cubs starter Jon Lester told reporters, “… (the balls are) not rubbed up like they used to be. You get balls back and they’re basically white. It seems like they’re right out of the box.”
Statements like these suggest a baseball with smoother leather (which would not retain mud as effectively) and possibly with lower seams. Those properties would also produce a ball with less drag, leading to more home runs.
A detailed study of this season’s baseballs shows that is indeed the case.
What exactly has changed?
While the 2017 home run surge seems related to thicker laces, that does not mean the 2019 ball has undergone the same changes, as there are a number of ways to improve aerodynamics. Three effects can cause a ball to travel farther: It displaces less air, it “wobbles” less, or it creates less turbulence. The first requires a smaller ball; the second relies on a more centered core; the third occurs with either a smoother surface or a more spherical ball.
In its report and executive summary, the Home Run Committee considered properties of the baseball relevant to such aerodynamic changes. The committee measured two of them directly:
Fortunately, each of the other four properties can be measured and quantified. Building on last year’s baseball construction research, I examined a sample of 39 balls from 2019, taking detailed measurements of each ball’s exterior and construction materials. I then compared my findings to samples used in previous studies: 12 balls from 2014, 14 balls from 2016-17, 12 balls from 2018, and 20 balls from 2000-2014. (Note: In a previous study, I identified these balls as covering 2010-2014, since that is what I was told by my source. I have since discovered that at least one ball dates to 2003, so I have expanded the presumed dates of the sample back to 2000, when then-Pacific Bell Park first opened.) In addition, I have expanded the 2018 sample to include six more balls and have added a 12-ball sample from the 2015 postseason. As a result, my complete pre-2019 data sets consist of 32 balls from before 2015 (13 with known years) and 44 late-2015-to-2018 balls.
The size of the ball
MLB’s official rules state the dimensions of the baseball must “measure not less than nine nor more than 9 ¼ inches (between 22.9 and 23.5 centimeters) in circumference.” Since a smaller ball would lead to lower drag, I measured the 2019 baseballs and compared their circumferences to samples from previous seasons. My results were similar to those of the Home Run Committee, in that I could find no systematic difference. If anything, this season’s ball seems slightly larger, though with such broad ball-to-ball variation that any systematic change would be indistinguishable.
Baseball circumference in centimeters for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2016-2017, 2018 and 2019.
The seams are lower
Since lower seams make for a smoother surface, an overall change in their height would influence the ball’s aerodynamics. To find seam height, I used digital calipers to measure first the average thickness of each leather cover and then the average thickness at its edges. Because the interior surface of each cover is smooth (i.e. the seams do not protrude inward), the difference between these two thicknesses constitutes the seam height. With this method, I determined seam heights for five of my samples: 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2018 and 2019. As each ball has two covers, this gave me twice the number of data points.
Side view of leather covers from a 2018 and a 2019 baseball. Note the seams are thicker on the 2018 cover. (Meredith Wills)
For the period of 2000-2018, my findings tallied with those of the Home Run Committee, in that seam height showed no meaningful or consistent seasonal change. However, my 2019 results were very different.
By Dr. Meredith Wills
86
Welcome to baseball, circa 2019. Balls are flying, and records are falling. Players are on pace to hit 6,618 home runs, 1,000 more than last season’s 5,585 and 500 more than 2017’s all-time high of 6,105. At least 13 of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams are in a position to break franchise records. Twenty-one players are expected to hit more than 40 home runs — including Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich, who is projected for 61 — and the number who have already exceeded last season’s home run totals currently stands at 36 (and has probably gone up since this writing).
Balls are also traveling farther, with Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara hitting a 505-foot homer this past Friday and tying the Statcast era record. In 2018, only 82 home runs surpassed 450 feet. This season, that number is already up to 84, with a projected total of 178 — an increase of 117 percent. And it’s not just long distances. Despite the fact that fly ball rates are up less than 0.5 percent from 2017 and 2018, home run rates are up 7.8 percent and 17.8 percent.
So, what’s going on?
Yes, the ball is different
As Jayson Stark recently demonstrated, it’s the ball. On Thursday, commissioner Rob Manfred even issued a statement acknowledging that “we do think it’s a drag issue.” Rob Arthur provided evidence of this as early as the first week in April, showing that this season’s ball had a significantly lower drag coefficient than that of 2018. With such a small sample, he determined the aerodynamics were comparable to those of the 2017 home run surge. By now, it’s clear that Arthur’s findings were an underestimate.
Last year, MLB commissioned a Home Run Committee to figure out the reason behind the 2017 home run surge. The committee found the only possible cause was a decrease in the ball’s drag coefficient; however, the group was unable to identify the specific source of the change. Performing my own independent studies, I determined the decrease in drag could be traced back to an increase in lace thickness, which inadvertently produced a rounder baseball. The introduction of thicker laces also corresponded to a marked increase in pitcher blister injuries, suggesting that as a possible factor.
Home run rate 1990-2019. The dates of each baseball sample are labeled by color.
To be clear though, the 2019 baseball is not the 2017 baseball. Not only is it different from those of late 2015-2018, it’s different from balls going back to at least 2000.
Baseballs from early 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019. Balls up through early 2015 make up one population, balls from late 2015 through 2018 constitute another, and balls from 2019 are a third. (Meredith Wills)
Even hitters and managers aren’t quite sure what’s going on. During an April 27 postgame interview, Astros pinch-hitter Tony Kemp said of his walk-off home run, “I think I surprised myself. … I wasn’t imagining myself hitting a home run in that situation, but I’ll take a home run right there.” When asked about a home run he hit on June 2, Dodgers first baseman David Freese answered, “I don’t know. I don’t really know how that went out, but it did.” Similarly, an “excuse-me” home run hit by Mets third baseman Todd Frazier on June 6 surprised managers on both sides. Mets manager Mickey Callaway commented, “You don’t anticipate (a hit like that) going out. You usually read the swing, and it just kept on going.” Meanwhile, Giants manager Bruce Bochy said, “I thought it was a fly ball. I was surprised by how far it went.”
Pitchers, in particular, are saying the ball has changed. Mets starter Noah Syndergaard described the baseballs as “(feeling) like ice cubes,” referencing a video of a dog trying to pick up an ice cube. Nationals closer Sean Doolittle told USA Today’s Steve Gardner, “(the baseballs) feel really slick. … There’s been several times where I’ve gotten one and I haven’t even thrown a pitch with it. It just really didn’t feel right in my hand, and so I just threw it out.” He also described the seams as feeling “lower but wider, if that makes sense,” and pointed out that, “(for guys) that spin the ball, it seems to be a little bit different.” Cubs starter Jon Lester told reporters, “… (the balls are) not rubbed up like they used to be. You get balls back and they’re basically white. It seems like they’re right out of the box.”
Statements like these suggest a baseball with smoother leather (which would not retain mud as effectively) and possibly with lower seams. Those properties would also produce a ball with less drag, leading to more home runs.
A detailed study of this season’s baseballs shows that is indeed the case.
What exactly has changed?
While the 2017 home run surge seems related to thicker laces, that does not mean the 2019 ball has undergone the same changes, as there are a number of ways to improve aerodynamics. Three effects can cause a ball to travel farther: It displaces less air, it “wobbles” less, or it creates less turbulence. The first requires a smaller ball; the second relies on a more centered core; the third occurs with either a smoother surface or a more spherical ball.
In its report and executive summary, the Home Run Committee considered properties of the baseball relevant to such aerodynamic changes. The committee measured two of them directly:
- Smaller size
- Lower seam height
- Smoother leather covers
- Greater spherical symmetry (i.e. a rounder ball)
- A more centered core (or “pill”)
Fortunately, each of the other four properties can be measured and quantified. Building on last year’s baseball construction research, I examined a sample of 39 balls from 2019, taking detailed measurements of each ball’s exterior and construction materials. I then compared my findings to samples used in previous studies: 12 balls from 2014, 14 balls from 2016-17, 12 balls from 2018, and 20 balls from 2000-2014. (Note: In a previous study, I identified these balls as covering 2010-2014, since that is what I was told by my source. I have since discovered that at least one ball dates to 2003, so I have expanded the presumed dates of the sample back to 2000, when then-Pacific Bell Park first opened.) In addition, I have expanded the 2018 sample to include six more balls and have added a 12-ball sample from the 2015 postseason. As a result, my complete pre-2019 data sets consist of 32 balls from before 2015 (13 with known years) and 44 late-2015-to-2018 balls.
The size of the ball
MLB’s official rules state the dimensions of the baseball must “measure not less than nine nor more than 9 ¼ inches (between 22.9 and 23.5 centimeters) in circumference.” Since a smaller ball would lead to lower drag, I measured the 2019 baseballs and compared their circumferences to samples from previous seasons. My results were similar to those of the Home Run Committee, in that I could find no systematic difference. If anything, this season’s ball seems slightly larger, though with such broad ball-to-ball variation that any systematic change would be indistinguishable.
Baseball circumference in centimeters for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2016-2017, 2018 and 2019.
The seams are lower
Since lower seams make for a smoother surface, an overall change in their height would influence the ball’s aerodynamics. To find seam height, I used digital calipers to measure first the average thickness of each leather cover and then the average thickness at its edges. Because the interior surface of each cover is smooth (i.e. the seams do not protrude inward), the difference between these two thicknesses constitutes the seam height. With this method, I determined seam heights for five of my samples: 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2018 and 2019. As each ball has two covers, this gave me twice the number of data points.
Side view of leather covers from a 2018 and a 2019 baseball. Note the seams are thicker on the 2018 cover. (Meredith Wills)
For the period of 2000-2018, my findings tallied with those of the Home Run Committee, in that seam height showed no meaningful or consistent seasonal change. However, my 2019 results were very different.
For the first time in at least 19 years, seam height had decreased to such an extent that, even taking uncertainties into account, the seams were demonstrably lower. (This is described by the term “statistically significant.”) In fact, when compared to the average from previous seasons, the seams on the 2019 balls are only 54.6 percent ± 15.0 percent as high. While these data cannot measure the extent of the effect, there is no doubt that lower seams would improve aerodynamics. These results are also consistent with anecdotal pitcher observations.
Seam height in millimeters for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2018 and 2019. Note the seams on the 2019 balls are significantly lower.
The leather is smoother
“Absolute smoothness” is difficult to quantify; the most precise techniques require lasers. However, finding “relative smoothness” is fairly simple. One way to do this is by measuring the “coefficient of static friction,” which amounts to the traction between two surfaces. Anybody who has tried walking on ice in different types of shoes has encountered the effects of static friction — if you’re wearing boots, you’re far less likely to slip than if you’re wearing dress shoes.
Quantifying static friction is remarkably straightforward. All that is required is a uniformly smooth board and the object being measured (in this case, a leather cover). One places the object on the board and raises one end; when the object loses traction and slides, the angle between the board and floor provides all of the information needed to calculate the coefficient of static friction. Therefore, as long as the same board is used, it becomes possible to measure leather smoothness.
A demonstration of how static friction is measured. Once the board reaches a certain angle, the folded leather cover will lose grip and slide. From that angle, one can determine the coefficient of static friction. (Cameron Adams)
As with seam height, I measured samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2018 and 2019. Since the majority of the balls were either unused or batting practice balls, this meant the samples were generally unaffected by umpire-applied mud. To ensure a uniform shape, each cover was folded in half, with the two sides held together by neodymium magnets. Because the folding process puckers the upper side of the cover, I took care to measure the side that appeared smoothest, and some samples were eliminated due either to scuffs or excessive puckering. (In cases where covers are glued down very tightly, it is difficult to remove them without affecting smoothness.)
A leather cover showing puckering. Since the addition of such texture would affect smoothness measurements, covers like this were not included in the sample. (Meredith Wills)
Each folded cover was placed on a piece of laminated pressboard, one end of which was then raised until the cover began to slide. The height of the raised end of the board was recorded, enabling calculation of the angle between the board and the floor. To keep the motion as uniform as possible, the board was moved along and against two laminated surfaces, with microfiber towels placed at each end.
Up through 2018, the baseballs showed the sort of ball-to-ball variation expected from a handmade construction process. However, the static friction for the 2019 balls is 27.6 percent lower, a statistically significant result demonstrating the leather covers are genuinely smoother. Like decreased seam height, this contributes to a lower drag efficient, making home runs even more likely. In addition, slicker leather can be expected to produce the sort of grip issues being experienced by at least some pitchers.
Leather smoothness, as determined by the coefficient of static friction, for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2018 and 2019. The lower the static friction, the smoother the leather. Note the covers on the 2019 baseballs are significantly smoother.
The ball is rounder
In a previous article, I found the 2017 home run surge may have been caused by improved spherical symmetry (i.e. ball roundness), which could be traced back to “bulging” along the seams; because this deforms the ball, more bulging produces greater drag. My results showed that pre-2015 balls had much more pronounced deformation than balls from 2018, meaning the rounder 2018 balls would travel farther.
Using the same techniques, I measured seam bulging on my 2019 baseballs. I also added six balls to my 2018 sample.
My findings were, to say the least, unexpected. While the 2000-2014 balls showed bulging of 0.66 percent ± 0.34 percent and the 2018 balls 0.28 percent ± 0.33 percent, those from 2019 deviated from spherical by only -0.04 percent ± 0.31 percent. Not only were the 2019 balls virtually round, what bulging they did show was slightly negative, suggesting the seams might be slightly “nestled” into the leather. In addition, while this change is only a trend when compared to the 2018 sample, the difference between the 2000-2014 and the 2019 samples is statistically significant.
Here, the effect on aerodynamics may actually be two-fold. Not only are the balls rounder (therefore producing less drag), but “nestled down” seams might decrease the impact of the already-lower seam height. This double-whammy would produce a ball that travels even farther.
Deviation from spherical symmetry (or “roundness”), as determined from measuring seam bulging, for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2018 and 2019. The upper graph shows the average percentage difference from the baseball’s average diameter, with zero (the black dashed line) being completely round. The lower graph shows the same data for each baseball. Note the 2019 baseballs are almost completely round and even show slightly negative seam bulging. In addition, the difference between the 2000-2014 and the 2019 samples is statistically significant. This information is relevant to the findings on lace thickness.
The lace thickness has changed (again)
While the 2019 balls already show a number of changes that would affect drag, it would be remiss not to also look into what I believe is the source of the 2017 surge — that is, lace thickness. Since my original study, I have acquired a number of new baseball samples, enabling me to look for changes over time. As before, lace thickness is measured in “wraps per centimeter.” Since thinner laces will have more wraps, the larger the number, the thinner the laces.
The previous results — comparing 2014 to 2016-2017 balls — were as expected. In addition, balls from 2018 and the 2015 postseason had lace thicknesses comparable to those of 2016-2017. (Note the 2015 postseason results suggest the change in laces occurred partway through the 2015 season.) The spread in lace thicknesses over 2000-2014 is interesting, in that its uncertainty overlaps those of late 2015-2018; however, when one looks at the graph showing home run rates over time, the idea that lace thickness undergoes periodic changes does not seem unreasonable. While the effect was more dramatic over late 2015-2018, one of the thicker lace measurements came from a ball that could be definitively dated to 2003. Since the home run rate in 2003 was much higher than that of 2014, this may imply that trends or fluctuations in home runs may correlate — at least in part — with lace thickness. That being said, despite the larger uncertainties, the 2000-2014 laces are, on average, thinner than those from late 2015-2018.
As with the other measurements, the 2019 baseballs are markedly different — and once again in an unexpected way.
With statistical significance, the lace thickness has decreased to something comparable with pre-2015. This change could be encouraging for pitchers, given the increase in blisters during late 2015-2018.
Lace thickness for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2016-2017, 2018 and 2019. Since thickness is measured in “wraps per centimeter,” thicker laces have fewer wraps. Note that laces from before 2015 are thinner, those from 2015 postseason through 2018 are thicker, and in 2019 the laces become thinner again.
However, the decrease in lace thickness also flies in the face of earlier findings concerning spherical symmetry.
Traditionally, the final manufacturing step involves air-drying damp, finished baseballs. Since the laces are made of cotton and stretched cotton stays stretched when air-dried, the supposition was that thinner laces would not only stretch more but dry stretched, producing a ball with more bulging along the seams. That theory appeared sound, and was validated by findings comparing pre-2015 and 2018 baseballs.
While it is possible the original seam-bulging supposition was incorrect, the fact the 2000-2014 and the 2019 balls show marked differences in spherical symmetry suggests that lace thickness is no longer affecting shape. Regardless, the improved roundness of the current ball would lead it to carry farther.
‘Re-evaluating specifications’
When announcing the purchase of Rawlings in June 2018, MLB executive vice president Chris Marinak told reporters, “We are particularly interested in providing even more input and direction on the production of the official ball.” These goals were also advocated in the Home Run Committee’s recommendation that “MLB should re-evaluate the specifications on parameters of the baseball that affect the game,” specifying size, weight and other properties known to vary not only from season to season but from ball to ball. Such improvements to specifications and oversight would lead to baseballs that are more uniform and thus behave more predictably.
Despite Manfred’s early-season supposition that the increase in home run rate was due to “variation(s) that we don’t know how to eliminate,” the changes to the current ball show that variation has decreased, particularly leather smoothness. As baseball leather is skived (i.e. scraped down) by hand, increased smoothness could be the result of better quality control. Rawlings has even attempted to improve this process before, telling the Home Run Committee that they “eliminat(ed) wet shaving” in February 2017.
Other changes may also relate to better specifications. In their report, the Home Run Committee describes the final manufacturing step as follows: “The balls are rolled between grooved wooden platens after stitching (when the balls are moist) and again 24 hours later, to flatten the seams and maintain a spherical shape.” Before 2019, deviations from spherical symmetry were consistent with lace stretching due to air-drying. However, the fact that the new ball is rounder despite thinner laces suggests that perhaps the cotton laces are no longer being stretched during the finishing process. Since the only way to dry cotton without stretching is through heat and moisture removal (think of putting wet clothes in a dryer), one hypothesis is that balls are now being dried under hot air flow. Preventing lace stretching may also account for lower seams, since tighter laces could potentially “hold seams down.”
Seam height in millimeters for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2018 and 2019. Note the seams on the 2019 balls are significantly lower.
The leather is smoother
“Absolute smoothness” is difficult to quantify; the most precise techniques require lasers. However, finding “relative smoothness” is fairly simple. One way to do this is by measuring the “coefficient of static friction,” which amounts to the traction between two surfaces. Anybody who has tried walking on ice in different types of shoes has encountered the effects of static friction — if you’re wearing boots, you’re far less likely to slip than if you’re wearing dress shoes.
Quantifying static friction is remarkably straightforward. All that is required is a uniformly smooth board and the object being measured (in this case, a leather cover). One places the object on the board and raises one end; when the object loses traction and slides, the angle between the board and floor provides all of the information needed to calculate the coefficient of static friction. Therefore, as long as the same board is used, it becomes possible to measure leather smoothness.
A demonstration of how static friction is measured. Once the board reaches a certain angle, the folded leather cover will lose grip and slide. From that angle, one can determine the coefficient of static friction. (Cameron Adams)
As with seam height, I measured samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2018 and 2019. Since the majority of the balls were either unused or batting practice balls, this meant the samples were generally unaffected by umpire-applied mud. To ensure a uniform shape, each cover was folded in half, with the two sides held together by neodymium magnets. Because the folding process puckers the upper side of the cover, I took care to measure the side that appeared smoothest, and some samples were eliminated due either to scuffs or excessive puckering. (In cases where covers are glued down very tightly, it is difficult to remove them without affecting smoothness.)
A leather cover showing puckering. Since the addition of such texture would affect smoothness measurements, covers like this were not included in the sample. (Meredith Wills)
Each folded cover was placed on a piece of laminated pressboard, one end of which was then raised until the cover began to slide. The height of the raised end of the board was recorded, enabling calculation of the angle between the board and the floor. To keep the motion as uniform as possible, the board was moved along and against two laminated surfaces, with microfiber towels placed at each end.
Up through 2018, the baseballs showed the sort of ball-to-ball variation expected from a handmade construction process. However, the static friction for the 2019 balls is 27.6 percent lower, a statistically significant result demonstrating the leather covers are genuinely smoother. Like decreased seam height, this contributes to a lower drag efficient, making home runs even more likely. In addition, slicker leather can be expected to produce the sort of grip issues being experienced by at least some pitchers.
Leather smoothness, as determined by the coefficient of static friction, for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2018 and 2019. The lower the static friction, the smoother the leather. Note the covers on the 2019 baseballs are significantly smoother.
The ball is rounder
In a previous article, I found the 2017 home run surge may have been caused by improved spherical symmetry (i.e. ball roundness), which could be traced back to “bulging” along the seams; because this deforms the ball, more bulging produces greater drag. My results showed that pre-2015 balls had much more pronounced deformation than balls from 2018, meaning the rounder 2018 balls would travel farther.
Using the same techniques, I measured seam bulging on my 2019 baseballs. I also added six balls to my 2018 sample.
My findings were, to say the least, unexpected. While the 2000-2014 balls showed bulging of 0.66 percent ± 0.34 percent and the 2018 balls 0.28 percent ± 0.33 percent, those from 2019 deviated from spherical by only -0.04 percent ± 0.31 percent. Not only were the 2019 balls virtually round, what bulging they did show was slightly negative, suggesting the seams might be slightly “nestled” into the leather. In addition, while this change is only a trend when compared to the 2018 sample, the difference between the 2000-2014 and the 2019 samples is statistically significant.
Here, the effect on aerodynamics may actually be two-fold. Not only are the balls rounder (therefore producing less drag), but “nestled down” seams might decrease the impact of the already-lower seam height. This double-whammy would produce a ball that travels even farther.
Deviation from spherical symmetry (or “roundness”), as determined from measuring seam bulging, for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2018 and 2019. The upper graph shows the average percentage difference from the baseball’s average diameter, with zero (the black dashed line) being completely round. The lower graph shows the same data for each baseball. Note the 2019 baseballs are almost completely round and even show slightly negative seam bulging. In addition, the difference between the 2000-2014 and the 2019 samples is statistically significant. This information is relevant to the findings on lace thickness.
The lace thickness has changed (again)
While the 2019 balls already show a number of changes that would affect drag, it would be remiss not to also look into what I believe is the source of the 2017 surge — that is, lace thickness. Since my original study, I have acquired a number of new baseball samples, enabling me to look for changes over time. As before, lace thickness is measured in “wraps per centimeter.” Since thinner laces will have more wraps, the larger the number, the thinner the laces.
The previous results — comparing 2014 to 2016-2017 balls — were as expected. In addition, balls from 2018 and the 2015 postseason had lace thicknesses comparable to those of 2016-2017. (Note the 2015 postseason results suggest the change in laces occurred partway through the 2015 season.) The spread in lace thicknesses over 2000-2014 is interesting, in that its uncertainty overlaps those of late 2015-2018; however, when one looks at the graph showing home run rates over time, the idea that lace thickness undergoes periodic changes does not seem unreasonable. While the effect was more dramatic over late 2015-2018, one of the thicker lace measurements came from a ball that could be definitively dated to 2003. Since the home run rate in 2003 was much higher than that of 2014, this may imply that trends or fluctuations in home runs may correlate — at least in part — with lace thickness. That being said, despite the larger uncertainties, the 2000-2014 laces are, on average, thinner than those from late 2015-2018.
As with the other measurements, the 2019 baseballs are markedly different — and once again in an unexpected way.
With statistical significance, the lace thickness has decreased to something comparable with pre-2015. This change could be encouraging for pitchers, given the increase in blisters during late 2015-2018.
Lace thickness for baseball samples from 2000-2014, 2014, 2015 postseason, 2016-2017, 2018 and 2019. Since thickness is measured in “wraps per centimeter,” thicker laces have fewer wraps. Note that laces from before 2015 are thinner, those from 2015 postseason through 2018 are thicker, and in 2019 the laces become thinner again.
However, the decrease in lace thickness also flies in the face of earlier findings concerning spherical symmetry.
Traditionally, the final manufacturing step involves air-drying damp, finished baseballs. Since the laces are made of cotton and stretched cotton stays stretched when air-dried, the supposition was that thinner laces would not only stretch more but dry stretched, producing a ball with more bulging along the seams. That theory appeared sound, and was validated by findings comparing pre-2015 and 2018 baseballs.
While it is possible the original seam-bulging supposition was incorrect, the fact the 2000-2014 and the 2019 balls show marked differences in spherical symmetry suggests that lace thickness is no longer affecting shape. Regardless, the improved roundness of the current ball would lead it to carry farther.
‘Re-evaluating specifications’
When announcing the purchase of Rawlings in June 2018, MLB executive vice president Chris Marinak told reporters, “We are particularly interested in providing even more input and direction on the production of the official ball.” These goals were also advocated in the Home Run Committee’s recommendation that “MLB should re-evaluate the specifications on parameters of the baseball that affect the game,” specifying size, weight and other properties known to vary not only from season to season but from ball to ball. Such improvements to specifications and oversight would lead to baseballs that are more uniform and thus behave more predictably.
Despite Manfred’s early-season supposition that the increase in home run rate was due to “variation(s) that we don’t know how to eliminate,” the changes to the current ball show that variation has decreased, particularly leather smoothness. As baseball leather is skived (i.e. scraped down) by hand, increased smoothness could be the result of better quality control. Rawlings has even attempted to improve this process before, telling the Home Run Committee that they “eliminat(ed) wet shaving” in February 2017.
Other changes may also relate to better specifications. In their report, the Home Run Committee describes the final manufacturing step as follows: “The balls are rolled between grooved wooden platens after stitching (when the balls are moist) and again 24 hours later, to flatten the seams and maintain a spherical shape.” Before 2019, deviations from spherical symmetry were consistent with lace stretching due to air-drying. However, the fact that the new ball is rounder despite thinner laces suggests that perhaps the cotton laces are no longer being stretched during the finishing process. Since the only way to dry cotton without stretching is through heat and moisture removal (think of putting wet clothes in a dryer), one hypothesis is that balls are now being dried under hot air flow. Preventing lace stretching may also account for lower seams, since tighter laces could potentially “hold seams down.”
Putting it all together
The first recommendation of the Home Run Committee was that “MLB should work with Rawlings and/or independent test labs to develop methods to measure and monitor parameters of the baseball that affect the carry.” Independent aerodynamic testing is currently studying sources of drag variation, and according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, internal testing is also being done, since MLB officials “privately acknowledge that its internal testing shows less average drag on the baseball than last year.”
In addition, Rawlings is actively experimenting with baseball construction. Buster Olney told “Baseball Tonight” listeners that, having spoken to Rawlings, “they’re just hoping that … they can develop a baseball with a tacky surface.” He also reported that “Rawlings now is in the second prototype of a ball with a consistent grip, one that was previewed with players in Spring Training. Rawlings is making some tweaks, (and) they hope to have a third prototype ready for laboratory testing sometime this summer.” Rawlings’ concern seems to be the leather, since the spring training prototype was intended to eliminate the need from pregame “rubbing-up” — a process designed to increase grip. While it is unclear if Rawlings’ interest in improving grip is related to or has been affected by the current baseball, we know that the company monitors leather smoothness as part of the manufacturing process and therefore is probably aware of this season’s issues. Since early season data found that walks, wild pitches, and hit-by-pitches were up — all issues that relate to grip — Rawlings’ efforts in this area will likely be welcomed by players.
In his recent statement, Manfred said “(Rawlings) hasn’t changed their process (or materials) in any meaningful way.” Given MLB’s internal tests showing lower drag, and Rawlings’ ongoing experimentation with the ball, this seems like a potential disconnect. However, it may simply be a question of semantics.
The Home Run Committee found that Rawlings regularly implements production improvements, including changes to the yarn (February 2014), the pill (March 2014, May 2015), the leather (June 2014, February 2017, August 2017) and the drying process (March 2016, February 2018). The Committee described these changes as “largely technical in nature and very unlikely to be in any way related to the (2017) home run increase.” That being the case, things like enhancing leather smoothness or drying baseballs more efficiently might not be considered “meaningful” to manufacturing.
While this may have been a reasonable attitude in the past, such enhancements now appear to have compounded, producing a more aerodynamic ball.
Since internal inquiries continue to be inconclusive, it might be beneficial for MLB to commission another report from the Home Run Committee, this time focusing on the 2019 baseball. Unlike the study of the 2017 home run surge, where the Committee looked at a number of potential causes besides the ball, this research would be much more straightforward. And while my study focuses on the construction differences themselves, the Home Run Committee is in a position to determine how much each attribute — lower seams, smoother leather, greater spherical symmetry — contributes to aerodynamics. Such information would prove invaluable to MLB’s goals of tightening specifications and improving quality control. It would also help Rawlings determine future production improvements.
After all, any one of these changes would cause the ball to fly farther; together, they have made the current home run surge inevitable.
The first recommendation of the Home Run Committee was that “MLB should work with Rawlings and/or independent test labs to develop methods to measure and monitor parameters of the baseball that affect the carry.” Independent aerodynamic testing is currently studying sources of drag variation, and according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, internal testing is also being done, since MLB officials “privately acknowledge that its internal testing shows less average drag on the baseball than last year.”
In addition, Rawlings is actively experimenting with baseball construction. Buster Olney told “Baseball Tonight” listeners that, having spoken to Rawlings, “they’re just hoping that … they can develop a baseball with a tacky surface.” He also reported that “Rawlings now is in the second prototype of a ball with a consistent grip, one that was previewed with players in Spring Training. Rawlings is making some tweaks, (and) they hope to have a third prototype ready for laboratory testing sometime this summer.” Rawlings’ concern seems to be the leather, since the spring training prototype was intended to eliminate the need from pregame “rubbing-up” — a process designed to increase grip. While it is unclear if Rawlings’ interest in improving grip is related to or has been affected by the current baseball, we know that the company monitors leather smoothness as part of the manufacturing process and therefore is probably aware of this season’s issues. Since early season data found that walks, wild pitches, and hit-by-pitches were up — all issues that relate to grip — Rawlings’ efforts in this area will likely be welcomed by players.
In his recent statement, Manfred said “(Rawlings) hasn’t changed their process (or materials) in any meaningful way.” Given MLB’s internal tests showing lower drag, and Rawlings’ ongoing experimentation with the ball, this seems like a potential disconnect. However, it may simply be a question of semantics.
The Home Run Committee found that Rawlings regularly implements production improvements, including changes to the yarn (February 2014), the pill (March 2014, May 2015), the leather (June 2014, February 2017, August 2017) and the drying process (March 2016, February 2018). The Committee described these changes as “largely technical in nature and very unlikely to be in any way related to the (2017) home run increase.” That being the case, things like enhancing leather smoothness or drying baseballs more efficiently might not be considered “meaningful” to manufacturing.
While this may have been a reasonable attitude in the past, such enhancements now appear to have compounded, producing a more aerodynamic ball.
Since internal inquiries continue to be inconclusive, it might be beneficial for MLB to commission another report from the Home Run Committee, this time focusing on the 2019 baseball. Unlike the study of the 2017 home run surge, where the Committee looked at a number of potential causes besides the ball, this research would be much more straightforward. And while my study focuses on the construction differences themselves, the Home Run Committee is in a position to determine how much each attribute — lower seams, smoother leather, greater spherical symmetry — contributes to aerodynamics. Such information would prove invaluable to MLB’s goals of tightening specifications and improving quality control. It would also help Rawlings determine future production improvements.
After all, any one of these changes would cause the ball to fly farther; together, they have made the current home run surge inevitable.
TLDR: the laces are smaller and the ball is more spherical, so the ball is traveling farther. Key stat:
Rell Lauren
Banned
Manfred is a buffoon
He's an a$$hole. I didn't think MLB could find a bigger piece of shyt than Selig, but they did.
Trust me from people I know who've worked in the league a long while, they hate him and find him more incompetent than Selig.
That said he's still just a scapegoat for the actual villains in all this.The owners.
Well that london yankees redsox game was definetly suspect and humorous.
Minuswell have been out there with aluminum bats
